Is the iPhone an Unexpected Driver of the U.S. Fertility Decline?
A research working paper from Middlebury College economists finds a statistical correlation between the early introduction of the iPhone and a decline in U.S. fertility rates. The study estimates that the spread of smartphones may account for one-third to one-half of the observed drop in birth rates during the period from 2007 to 2011.
The researchers estimate that early iPhone diffusion accounts for between one-third and one-half of the general U.S. fertility rate decline across the study period.
Research Methodology
The paper, titled "Is the iPhone Birth Control?" by economists Caitlin Myers and Ezekiel Hooper, used a natural experiment based on the initial AT&T exclusivity of the iPhone.
- The researchers compared birth rates in counties where over 90% of residents had early access to AT&T’s mobile broadband network—the only network compatible with the original iPhone—against counties with less than 10% access.
- The study controlled for variables including population density and local economic conditions.
Key Findings
The results show a clear divergence in fertility trends based on early smartphone access.
- Counties with high early access to the iPhone experienced a larger decline in birth rates than counties with low access.
- The effect was most pronounced among teenagers and women in their 20s. Among 15- to 19-year-olds, the birth rate fell approximately 26% in high-access counties compared to 14% in low-access counties.
- The researchers estimate that early iPhone diffusion accounts for between one-third and one-half of the general U.S. fertility rate decline across the study period.
Proposed Mechanisms
The authors offer several theories for the observed correlation, suggesting that the device itself may have altered fundamental social behaviors:
- Reduced in-person social interaction due to increased time spent online
- Easier access to information about contraceptives and abortion
- Substitution of in-person relationships with online pornography and screen-based interactions
Criticisms and Alternative Explanations
Other experts have noted that U.S. fertility rates have been declining for decades, predating the introduction of smartphones. Some suggest the 2007 inflection point may be less significant when viewed in a longer historical context.
Dr. Sarah Hayford (Ohio State University) and Dr. Alison Gemmill (UCLA) point to alternative factors contributing to the fertility decline, including:
- Expanded access to contraception, particularly IUDs and injectable contraceptives
- Rising costs of childcare
- Changes in labor markets
- Shifting social norms
The timeframe studied (2007-2011) largely predates the widespread adoption of social media and dating apps, which are commonly associated with current smartphone use.
Policy Implications
The authors caution that the study does not provide a simple policy solution. They do not advocate for removing smartphones but suggest that fostering face-to-face interactions might be a relevant policy direction.