On January 3, Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro was apprehended in Caracas by US forces. This operation, which led to Maduro facing charges in a New York courtroom, has elicited strong international reactions and prompted discussions regarding its potential implications for China's relationship with Taiwan.
Apprehension of President Maduro
US forces apprehended Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro in the capital city of Caracas on January 3. Hours before his capture, President Maduro had met with China's special envoy for Latin American affairs, Qiu Xiaoqi, at the Miraflores Palace, where Maduro reportedly expressed gratitude to Chinese President Xi Jinping. Following the apprehension, US President Donald Trump circulated images of Maduro on a US warship and announced that Maduro would face narco-conspiracy charges in a New York courtroom. Maduro subsequently declared himself a "kidnapped president" and a "prisoner of war."
International Reactions and Condemnation
Beijing's government issued a strong condemnation of the US action. Chinese state media characterized the event as a unilateral act that disregarded international law and national sovereignty. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi stated that China does not believe any country should act as "the world’s police" or "the world’s judge." China formally stated that the US actions "seriously violate international law and basic norms in international relations," and, along with Russia, supported an emergency UN Security Council meeting to discuss the legality of the operation. Some legal scholars have asserted that the operation potentially violates international law concerning the use of force.
Economic Considerations for China
The apprehension of President Maduro introduces economic complexities for China. China is a primary importer of Venezuelan oil, accounting for approximately 4-5 percent of its total oil imports. Additionally, there is uncertainty regarding the recovery of an estimated $US12 billion in outstanding loans owed by Venezuela to China.
Discussions on China-Taiwan Dynamics
The US action in Venezuela has prompted renewed discussion concerning its potential implications for China's stated goal of "reunification" with Taiwan. China views Taiwan, a self-governing island of 23 million people, as an integral part of its territory. China's government does not recognize the legitimacy of Taiwan's leader, William Lai Ching-te, or his government, a stance that mirrors the US position on Maduro's legitimacy. The power imbalance between China and Taiwan is noted by some as comparable to that between the United States and Venezuela.
China consistently frames its relationship with Taiwan as a domestic political matter, asserting it is not subject to international law, even while engaging with international narratives on the issue. Ryan Hass, a former US diplomat and senior fellow at Brookings, stated that Beijing's strategy towards Taiwan has involved "coercion without violence," operating independently of international law and norms. Shen Dingli, a Shanghai-based international relations scholar, reiterated this official view, stating that "Cross-strait relations are not international relations and are not governed by international law. The United States’ approach to Venezuela holds no relevance for cross-strait relations." A commentator on the Chinese social media site Weibo echoed this, describing the US actions in Venezuela as "a grave violation of international law and an infringement on Venezuela’s sovereignty," while labeling China's situation with Taiwan as "strictly an internal national affair."
Varying Perspectives on Impact
Analysts have offered varying perspectives on whether the Venezuela incident will influence Beijing's strategy toward Taiwan.
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Limited Impact View: Some China analysts, including Dylan Loh of Nanyang Technological University, suggest that the Venezuela incident may not significantly alter Beijing's long-term strategy, noting that major powers often prioritize national interest over international law. Bonnie Glaser, an Indo-Pacific expert at the German Marshall Fund, asserted that Maduro's capture is "not a blueprint for Chinese takeover of Taiwan," suggesting China's strategy for Taiwan involves "greyzone" tactics aimed at encouraging capitulation without military conflict. Emily Thornberry, chair of the UK’s foreign affairs committee, also stated that the US actions in Venezuela are unlikely to alter Beijing's fundamental approach to Taiwan.
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Potential Reconsideration View: Conversely, some observers in Taiwan suggested that the US military operation in Venezuela might cause Beijing to reconsider its approach. These observations highlighted that Venezuela's defense systems, which included China-sourced weapons, did not prevent the US operation. Lin Ying Yu, an associate professor at Tamkang University, noted that perceptions of Chinese-made weapons might be changing. Sung Wen-Ti, a non-resident fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Global China Hub, suggested that the US military's capacity for a "decapitation strike" could serve as a deterrent to Beijing.
Military Considerations and Deterrence
The primary deterrent against a potential Chinese action against Taiwan is considered to be the military balance in the Taiwan Strait, which includes the potential for US support to Taiwan. China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) recently conducted military drills around Taiwan, demonstrating capabilities to blockade the island and counter international assistance. The US Department of Defense assesses that the PLA is progressing towards its 2027 objective of achieving a "strategic decisive victory" over Taiwan, particularly through advancements in military artificial intelligence, biotechnology, and hypersonic missiles.
Taiwan's Official Stance and Public Discourse
The government of Taiwan refrained from issuing an official comment on the US actions in Venezuela. Taiwan's President Lai Ching-te has previously advocated for defending the international rules-based order to prevent an invasion by China. In public discourse, some Taiwanese commentators drew distinctions between Taiwan and Venezuela. A popular Taiwanese blogger suggested that Taiwan should avoid actions that could create issues for the US to prevent becoming "another Venezuela." YouTuber Chiu Wei-chieh asserted that Taiwan's leader has popular support, which distinguishes it from Venezuela, and called for unity to prevent Taiwan from becoming "easy prey."
Ryan Hass, a former China director on the US National Security Council, observed that Beijing has shown limited adherence to international norms regarding Taiwan, suggesting China might use the Venezuela incident to privately request similar latitude from Washington in its own foreign policy, specifically regarding areas like the South China Sea.
The events in Venezuela contribute to an ongoing international discourse regarding the application of international law and the actions of major global powers.