The war in Ukraine has entered its fifth year, evolving into Europe’s largest land conflict since World War II.
The full-scale invasion of Ukraine by Russia, which began on February 24, 2022, has defied initial expectations of a swift Russian victory. The conflict is now characterized by a war of attrition, significant military and civilian casualties, slow territorial changes, and an ongoing diplomatic deadlock. Russia currently occupies approximately 19-20% of Ukrainian territory, a figure that includes Crimea and parts of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions annexed in 2014.
Battlefield Dynamics and Military Casualties
Territorial Control
- March 2022: Russia controlled approximately 26% of Ukraine.
- April 2022: Ukrainian counter-offensives reduced Russian control to about 20%.
- As of late 2025/early 2026: Russia occupies an estimated 19-20% of Ukraine. This represents a net territorial gain of less than 1.5% since 2023, achieved at a significant cost in personnel and materiel.
- February 2025: Ukraine reclaimed over 200 square kilometers of territory in a five-day period.
Casualties
Estimates of military casualties vary across sources and cannot be independently verified. Figures are provided as reported by institutions and officials.
- Russian Casualties: The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) estimates Russia suffered approximately 1.2 million casualties (killed, wounded, or missing) from February 2022 to December 2025, including up to 325,000 deaths. NATO officials assess monthly losses at 30,000-35,000. Ukraine’s General Staff estimates over 1.25 million total Russian casualties.
- Ukrainian Casualties: CSIS estimates Ukraine suffered 500,000 to 600,000 military casualties, including up to 140,000 deaths. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated earlier in 2026 that 55,000 Ukrainian soldiers had been killed.
- The total number of military casualties for both sides is estimated to be approximately 1.8-2 million.
Civilian Casualties and Displacement
- The United Nations Human Rights Monitoring Mission in Ukraine (HRMMU) has confirmed over 15,000 civilian deaths and more than 41,000 injuries since February 2022, noting the actual figures are likely higher.
- The year 2025 was reported as the deadliest year for civilians since 2022.
- An estimated 5.9 million Ukrainians have left the country, with approximately 5.3 million seeking refuge in Europe.
- Approximately 3.7 million people are internally displaced within Ukraine.
- Ukraine states that approximately 20,000 children have been deported or forcibly moved from occupied territories. The 'Bring Kids Back UA' initiative reports the repatriation of about 2,000 children.
Military and Technological Evolution
Drone technology has significantly altered the conflict since 2022. Both sides utilize unmanned aerial, ground, and sea vehicles for reconnaissance, airstrikes, and naval operations.
- Russia regularly launches Iranian-designed Shahed attack drones at Ukrainian cities.
- Ukraine has conducted drone strikes deep inside Russian territory, targeting oil refineries, ports, military airfields, and other infrastructure.
- Both sides use fiber-optic drones and have developed countermeasures to electronic jamming.
- Ukraine reportedly deploys approximately 9,000 drones daily, with both sides producing an estimated four million annually.
Economic Impact and War Financing
Russia
- Russia's military spending increased significantly, from $66 billion (2021) to an estimated $149 billion (2024).
- The Russian economy has faced challenges including high inflation (8%), high interest rates (16%), labor shortages, and a widening budget deficit.
- Military recruitment relies on financial incentives, prison recruitment, and coercive mobilization. Reports indicate that in December 2025, Russia experienced more casualties than it was able to recruit.
- Western sanctions, including measures targeting oil exports, have impacted the Russian economy. Russia has utilized “shadow fleets” to circumvent restrictions and maintains energy exports to countries including China and India.
Ukraine
- Ukraine’s defense spending escalated from $6.9 billion (2021) to a record $71 billion budgeted for 2025.
- International aid has been critical. Following a significant reduction in U.S. support after January 2025, European countries increased their military aid by approximately 67% in 2025.
- Total contributions from the European Union and the United States since 2022 exceed $300 billion in military and budgetary support.
Frozen Russian Assets
- Approximately $300 billion of Russia’s central bank assets have been immobilized in Western financial institutions, with $230 billion held in Belgium.
- In May 2024, the EU decided to allocate proceeds from these assets to Ukraine, with 90% designated for military needs.
Diplomatic Landscape
Diplomatic efforts have not produced a breakthrough.
Russian negotiators stated “no compromise version has yet been found” after five hours of discussion in Moscow.
- Russian President Vladimir Putin has stated objectives including Ukraine ceding control of the remaining portions of Donetsk, international recognition of occupied territories as Russian, a reduction in Ukraine's military capabilities, and a permanent exclusion of Ukraine from NATO.
- Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has indicated openness to a demilitarized zone, conditional on Russian force withdrawals and Western security guarantees.
- European nations are preparing proposals for an international military force for a potential ceasefire scenario.
International and Domestic Context
Russia
- Public opinion polls consistently report high support for the conflict, though analysts question their accuracy due to laws criminalizing anti-war sentiment.
- Independent indicators suggest less enthusiastic support, including high rates of emigration (estimates of 500,000 to 1 million people since 2022), men seeking to evade conscription, and declining public displays of pro-war symbols.
- The Russian government has enacted laws penalizing “fake news” about the conflict and blocked social media platforms.
Ukraine
- Ukrainian citizens have experienced consistent missile and drone strikes on civilian infrastructure, including power and heating systems.
- Ukraine possesses the second-largest army in Europe but faces challenges including soldier exhaustion, desertion, and recruitment difficulties.
- Ukraine’s defense industrial base has grown significantly since 2022, reportedly accounting for 70% of its weapons procurement.
International Relations
- Sweden and Finland joined NATO following the 2022 invasion.
- Russia’s military production is dependent on supplies of dual-use goods from China.
- The war has altered Russia’s international standing, with some analysts describing it as a “secondary” and “spent force” in its broader region.