The Russia-Ukraine War: Five Years of Conflict

The full-scale war between Russia and Ukraine, which began on February 24, 2022, has entered its fifth year, evolving into Europe's largest conflict since World War II.

The conflict, initially anticipated by some to conclude rapidly, has become a protracted war of attrition characterized by significant military and civilian casualties, minimal territorial changes, and evolving technological warfare. Diplomatic efforts to achieve a settlement remain at an impasse, with fundamental disagreements over territory, security guarantees, and the conflict's underlying causes.

Battlefield Dynamics and Territorial Control

Territorial Overview

According to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), Russia controlled approximately 26% of Ukrainian territory in March 2022. Following Ukrainian counteroffensives in the Kharkiv and Kherson regions later that year, Russian control was reduced.

As of late 2025 and early 2026, Russia occupies approximately 19-20% of Ukraine, including Crimea and parts of the Donetsk, Luhansk, and Zaporizhzhia regions. Russia's territorial gains in the past year have been estimated at less than 1% of Ukraine's total land area, achieved at significant cost.

Ukrainian Territorial Gains

In May 2026, Ukraine recaptured more territory than it lost for the first time since 2023, according to the ISW. Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi reported net territorial gains of nearly 100 square kilometers in May 2026, bringing total net gains since January 2026 to over 600 square kilometers. In February 2026, Ukrainian forces reclaimed over 200 square kilometers in five days. Despite these gains, Russia continued to hold just under one-fifth of Ukrainian territory overall.

Military Casualties

Russian Casualties

Reports from the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) estimate total Russian casualties (dead, wounded, and missing) at approximately 1.2 million from February 2022 to December 2025, including up to 325,000 deaths. This figure represents the highest number of troop deaths for any major power in any conflict since World War II.

NATO sources estimated Russian losses at 30,000 to 35,000 personnel per month.

In December 2025, Western intelligence indicated that Russian troop losses exceeded recruitment for the first time since the invasion began. Ukraine's Defence Minister Mykhailo Fedorov stated that Ukraine aims to inflict 50,000 Russian casualties monthly. Russia's last official release of battlefield death figures was in January 2023, confirming over 6,000 military deaths.

Ukrainian Casualties

CSIS estimates Ukrainian military casualties at 500,000 to 600,000, including up to 140,000 deaths. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated in mid-2026 that 55,000 Ukrainian soldiers had been killed. Independent verification of military losses from either Moscow or Kyiv is not available.

Civilian Casualties

The United Nations Human Rights Monitoring Mission in Ukraine (HRMMU) has confirmed over 15,000 civilian deaths and 41,000 injuries since the full-scale invasion began, noting that actual figures are likely higher due to inaccessible Russian-occupied areas.

The year 2025 was reported as the deadliest for civilians since 2022, with a 31% increase in civilian casualties over 2024. At least 763 children have died, according to the UN.

Displacement and Humanitarian Impact

The International Organization for Migration reports that approximately 3.7 million Ukrainians are internally displaced, and over 5.3 million have sought refuge abroad. Ukraine has experienced a loss of approximately a quarter of its pre-war population of 42 million.

Around five million people were living under Russian occupation in 2023. Russia has also experienced an exodus, with estimates of 500,000 to 2 million individuals leaving the country since 2022, largely to avoid military conscription.

Missing Ukrainian Children

Ukraine states that approximately 20,000 children have been deported or forcibly moved from occupied territories by Russian authorities.

The 'Bring Kids Back UA' initiative has facilitated the repatriation of about 2,000 children, with Ukraine identifying 400 potential locations in Russia where abducted children may be held. Yale University's Humanitarian Research Lab reported that these children are routinely stripped of their Ukrainian identity, with some undergoing military training. Russia maintains that children were relocated for safety.

In March 2023, the International Criminal Court (ICC) issued arrest warrants for Russian President Vladimir Putin and his commissioner for children's rights, Maria Lvova-Belova, on war crimes charges. Russia rejects the warrants, citing its non-signatory status to the ICC charter.

Missile and Drone Attacks

Russian forces have conducted regular missile and drone strikes on Ukrainian cities and infrastructure, targeting energy facilities and causing power outages and heating challenges. In the week before the third anniversary of the invasion, the Ukrainian government reported over 1,300 attack drones, 1,400 guided aerial bombs, and 96 missiles launched by Russia. In May 2026, large-scale aerial assaults targeted multiple cities including Kyiv, resulting in at least 23 civilian deaths on June 2 alone.

Technological and Tactical Evolution

Drone Warfare

Drone technology has significantly altered the conflict since 2022. Initially used for reconnaissance, drones are now widely deployed by both sides for airstrikes on buildings, tanks, and personnel. Russia regularly uses Iranian-designed Shahed attack drones. Ukraine has utilized air drones for strikes deep within Russian territory, targeting oil refineries, military airfields, and logistics infrastructure.

Both sides have developed specialized drone capabilities, including fiber-optic drones to counter jamming, and unmanned ground and sea vehicles for evacuation, mining, and assaults. Ukraine reportedly deploys approximately 9,000 drones daily, with both antagonists producing approximately four million annually.

Long-Range Strikes

Ukraine has increased its capacity for long-range strikes, using domestically produced drones with ranges of 800 to 1,200 miles. Targets include oil refineries, military logistics, supply routes, and infrastructure. Ukrainian Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov stated that Crimea is being isolated by drones.

Ukrainian strikes have hit the Black Sea oil terminal at Tuapse multiple times, Baltic ports, and an oil refinery in Perm, over 1,000 miles from the frontline. Ukraine's drone campaign aims to reduce Russia's economic capacity to sustain the war by targeting its energy export sector, estimated at 100 million tonnes of oil annually worth $100 billion.

Equipment Losses

Ukraine alleges significant Russian equipment losses, including 37,000 artillery pieces, 24,000 armored vehicles, and 11,000 tanks, many of which are older models from the mid-Cold War era. Sanctions have affected Russia's access to critical components, leading to the repurposing of microprocessors from domestic goods for military drones.

Economic Impact

Russia's War Economy

Russia's military spending increased from $66 billion in 2021 to $149 billion in 2024, according to SIPRI. Estimates for 2025 suggest continued high spending, though some analysts indicate a projected decrease. Russia's war spending accounts for approximately 9% of its GDP and 40% of its government budget.

Despite initial economic resilience, Russia faces significant economic pressures:

• Labor shortages due to military recruitment and prioritization of military industrial production
• High inflation (8%), with food prices, particularly cucumbers, doubling since December
• Rising interest rates (16%)
• Declining real incomes and increased consumer taxes
• Growing budget deficit

A report by the Peace and Conflict Resolution Evidence Platform indicates that Russia's economic capacity to finance the conflict has substantially decreased since 2022.

However, the economy has demonstrated adaptation through increased trade with China and India, and circumvention of sanctions through "shadow fleets" for energy exports.

Ukraine's Economy and International Support

Ukraine's defense spending rose from $6.9 billion in 2021 to $71 billion in 2025, primarily financed by international allies. The European Union and the United States contributed over $300 billion in military and budgetary support since 2022.

Following the Trump administration's assumption of office in January 2025, U.S. military aid to Ukraine fell by 99%. However, European countries increased their military aid by approximately 67% in 2025, partially compensating for the reduction. Foreign military aid to Kyiv decreased by 13% in 2025 compared to the annual average between 2022 and 2024.

Frozen Russian Assets

Approximately $300 billion of Russia's central bank reserves, including $230 billion in Belgium, remain immobilized in Western financial institutions. In May 2024, the EU decided to allocate proceeds from these assets to Ukraine, with 90% designated for military needs and 10% for reconstruction. An additional $33 billion in Russian private wealth belonging to sanctioned individuals has been immobilized.

Diplomatic Landscape

Peace Negotiations

U.S.-mediated peace talks have progressed slowly and have been characterized by fundamental disagreements. Key issues include:

• Russia demands Ukrainian withdrawal from territories not under Russian control, including parts of Donetsk and Donbas
• Ukraine rejects ceding territory it has defended for years
• Disagreements over security guarantees for Ukraine

Kremlin foreign policy aide Yuri Ushakov confirmed after a five-hour meeting in Moscow that "no compromise version has yet been found." A U.S.-brokered 72-hour ceasefire reportedly neared expiry, with both sides accusing each other of violations.

Russian Diplomatic Position

Russian President Vladimir Putin has stated that the conflict is "coming to an end" but vowed to continue until Russian aims are achieved. Russian demands include Ukraine ceding control of remaining parts of Donetsk, international recognition of occupied territories as Russian, significant reductions in Ukraine's military capabilities, and permanent exclusion of Ukraine from NATO.

Kremlin officials have expressed disappointment with the U.S., alleging that agreements from a 2024 summit regarding Ukrainian territory have not been honored.

Ukrainian Diplomatic Position

President Zelenskyy has stated that Ukraine will not cede positions that have withstood Russian attacks. He has expressed openness to a demilitarized zone provided Russia withdraws some forces and Western allies offer security guarantees.

In 2026, Ukrainian officials cited air defense shortages and signs of potential Russian mobilization as factors pushing Kyiv to seek peace talks before winter 2026.

European and NATO Positions

European nations are preparing for potential ceasefire scenarios, forming a "coalition of the willing" to establish an international military force aimed at deterring future Russian incursions and providing financial aid for Ukraine's reconstruction. Some officials advocate for both immediate support and long-term provisions for a 15-20 year engagement. The European Sky Shield Initiative has been proposed to protect western Ukraine from aerial threats.

French President Emmanuel Macron and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer have proposed deploying European troops; Ukraine welcomed the concept while Russia warned it would accept no NATO presence. Putin stated he would consider a ceasefire "if it leads to a long-term peace and removes the original causes of the conflict."

Other International Actors

China's role has gained increasing attention. Russia's military production depends on China's supply of dual-use goods. Sweden and Finland joined NATO following the invasion, doubling the land border between Russia and NATO states. U.S. President Donald Trump has suggested potential disengagement from the conflict and has characterized Russia as no longer an "existential threat" to the U.S. Trump has also raised the possibility of lifting some sanctions to achieve a peace deal.

Domestic Developments in Russia

Repression and Information Control

Following the 2022 invasion, Russia enacted laws criminalizing criticism of the military and government. Independent media outlets were closed or exiled, and major social media platforms including Instagram, Facebook, and Telegram have been restricted or blocked.

Telegram, used by both civilians and the military for communication, was restricted by Russian authorities in 2026. Critics and opposition figures have been designated as "foreign agents," and many have been detained. Alexei Navalny died in an Arctic prison in February 2024. A report by five European countries claims his remains showed traces of epibatidine; the Kremlin attributes his death to natural causes.

Recruitment and Public Opinion

Russia has recruited soldiers through financial incentives, prison recruitment, and coercive mobilization. Reports indicate that recruitment rates have fallen short of battlefield losses, and the quality of recruits has declined. Western intelligence suggested in late 2025 that Russia experienced more casualties than it was able to recruit.

Public opinion polls consistently report high support for the conflict (60-70%), though analysts note that laws criminalizing anti-war sentiment may influence poll accuracy. Independent ethnographic research has found limited evidence of widespread "rally around the flag" sentiment. Many Russians appear to engage in "internal emigration," avoiding political discussions.

Indicators of less enthusiastic support include:

• Recruitment offices not being overwhelmed
• Hundreds of thousands of men leaving the country to evade conscription
• Public displays of pro-war symbols remaining prominent in state spaces but diminished in private settings
• Dominance of personal relationship songs on music charts over patriotic anthems
• Increased demand for books about authoritarianism and totalitarianism

Demographic and Economic Strain

Russia faces labor shortages, with reports indicating a need for 800,000 blue-collar workers. An estimated 1-2 million people departed the country after the invasion, with only a small number returning, exacerbated by pre-existing labor shortages. Communist Party leader Gennady Zyuganov warned of a potential 1917-style revolution due to economic struggles.

International Engagement and Escalation Risks

Victory Day Parade

Russia's annual Victory Day parade on May 9, 2026, was scaled back, featuring no heavy military hardware for the first time in 20 years. The Kremlin cited security concerns and fears of Ukrainian attacks as reasons for the scaled-back event. Russia declared a unilateral truce for May 8-9, warning of strikes on Kyiv if attacked during the celebrations. Ukrainian President Zelenskyy rejected the truce as a "theatrical performance."

Potential Scenarios

Analysts have outlined several possible trajectories for the conflict:

• Armistice Without Peace: A ceasefire creating a demilitarized zone but leaving core issues unresolved
• The Forever War: A prolonged, adaptive conflict with fluctuating intensity
• Russian Coercive Victory: Moscow secures a ceasefire on its terms, limiting Ukraine's military future
• Ukrainian Strategic Recovery: Ukraine makes the war unwinnable for Russia through improved defense and deep strikes
• Russia-NATO Spillover: Hybrid attacks escalate into direct confrontation

Analysis Summary

Analysts generally agree that neither side is expected to reach a state of exhaustion in the near future.

Russia maintains advantages in population size, industrial capacity, and military resources. Ukraine has demonstrated resilience, technological adaptation, and ability to threaten Russian territory and infrastructure. Combat remains concentrated in eastern Ukraine, particularly the Donetsk region, where Russia has made gradual advances at high cost. Ukrainian forces have shown capacity to conduct tactical offensives while maintaining defensive positions.

Diplomatic progress remains elusive, with both sides maintaining incompatible positions on territorial control and security arrangements.