US Launches Renewed Diplomatic Effort on Sudan Civil War

Following a briefing from Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince to President Donald Trump, the United States has announced a new diplomatic initiative aimed at addressing Sudan's devastating civil war. The plan involves a coalition of regional states and seeks a ceasefire and humanitarian access, though deep divisions between the warring factions and their international backers pose significant challenges.

The initiative established a diplomatic group, referred to as the "Quad," comprising the US, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE.

Context of the Conflict

Sudan has been engaged in civil war for two and a half years, resulting in widespread destruction and displacement. Multiple previous peace initiatives have failed to achieve a resolution.

US Diplomatic Shift and New Plan

US President Donald Trump initially indicated the conflict was not a primary focus for his administration. Ten days ago, following a meeting with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, President Trump stated an intention to address the situation.

He later posted on social media about "tremendous atrocities" in Sudan, pledging to work with Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) to end the violence.

For six months, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and senior advisor for Africa Massad Boulos have been developing a peace plan. This plan outlines three objectives:

• A comprehensive ceasefire.
• Unimpeded access for humanitarian aid.
• Negotiations to establish a civilian-led government.

The Quad affirmed this plan in September and reconvened in Washington last month. Massad Boulos has rejected criticism that the US proposal is biased.

Recent Military Developments

In late October, the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) captured el-Fasher, the Sudanese army's last stronghold in the Darfur region, following a 500-day siege.

Reports indicate significant casualties, destruction, and acts of violence during the RSF's advance. Estimates suggest over 5,000 individuals perished in the events following the capture of el-Fasher.

Positions of the Warring Parties

Following the capture of el-Fasher, RSF head Gen Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, known as "Hemedti," announced a readiness for a ceasefire.

In contrast, Sudan's Armed Forces (SAF) chief Gen Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, who leads the UN-recognized government, rejected the ceasefire proposal, vowing to continue military operations. Elements within Burhan's camp have described the RSF as a group requiring complete defeat.

Regional Involvement

Regional states have provided support to different factions:

• Egypt and Turkey have increased arms supplies to the Sudanese army.
• Saudi Arabia also leans towards supporting the army.
• Investigative journalists and intelligence agencies have reported that the UAE has been arming the RSF, a claim consistently denied by the UAE.

Saudi Arabia and the UAE maintain a regional rivalry for influence, which extends to their policies in Sudan. The UAE considers the Muslim Brotherhood a terrorist organization. Given that General Burhan's coalition includes Islamists, the UAE has opposed this alignment.

Challenges to Mediation

Analysts suggest Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman's appeal to President Trump could amplify the Quad plan's influence. However, Burhan's interpretation of the Saudi intervention may prioritize Saudi mediation while potentially sidelining the UAE, which could complicate diplomacy.

Effective intervention is seen by some observers as requiring substantial US pressure on the UAE to cease alleged support for the RSF.

The US administration has not publicly reprimanded the UAE regarding Sudan and is not anticipated to impose economic sanctions. Current US efforts are reported to rely on quiet diplomacy to encourage the UAE to leverage its influence for peace.

Humanitarian and Political Landscape

The humanitarian situation in Sudan is critical, with a reported $3 billion urgently required for aid. Any potential truce would be fragile without a significant increase in humanitarian assistance.

The Sudanese population remains deeply divided, and public trust in the military leadership is reported to be low. Civilians who initiated protests against former President al-Bashir seven years ago continue to advocate for democracy and justice. Concerns exist among some Sudanese that an Arab-led peace process could have specific geopolitical outcomes.