Australia's Capital Cities on High Alert for Bushfire Risk

Recent reports indicate a heightened bushfire risk for Australian capital cities and Victoria. This risk is driven by critical factors including drying grasslands, specific weather patterns, and inherent vulnerabilities within urban fringe areas. Experts are drawing significant comparisons to past large-scale wildfires in Los Angeles, prompting discussions around preventative measures and community preparedness in response to the challenging outlook.

National Bushfire Risk Assessment

A report by the Climate Council and Emergency Leaders for Climate Action indicates that approximately 6.9 to 7 million Australians residing on the fringes of capital cities are exposed to bushfire risk.

This assessment challenges the perception that bushfires are primarily a regional or rural concern, highlighting a significant urban vulnerability.

Residents on the outskirts of Sydney, Melbourne, Canberra, Adelaide, Perth, and Hobart have been identified as being particularly exposed, especially in suburbs adjacent to bushland or grassland areas. The report estimates that up to 90% of homes in these areas were constructed before the implementation of modern bushfire building standards. This significantly increases the likelihood of ignition from ember attack and subsequent house-to-house fire spread.

Former NSW fire commissioner Greg Mullins identified all Australian capital cities, excluding Darwin, as being at risk. This assessment also extends to satellite cities such as the Central Coast, Newcastle, Wollongong, and various regions in Queensland.

Victorian Conditions and Outlook

Data from the Country Fire Authority (CFA) indicates an increase in grassland curing across Victoria, progressing from green to orange between September and December. By December 29, high curing levels were noted in Victoria's north-west, northern country, and parts of Melbourne's outer suburbs. Soil moisture in outer metropolitan Melbourne areas is described as significantly dry, requiring substantial rainfall to alter conditions.

The National Council for Fire and Emergency Service's November seasonal bushfire outlook predicted an increased fire risk for large areas of Victoria, including the south-west, western, north-central, central Victoria, and south-west Gippsland. This outlook anticipated that abundant grass growth from a previous La Niña weather pattern would rapidly become highly flammable in January once cured. This could potentially result in significant grassfire potential across western and central Victoria.

The report also warned of a "real possibility" of significant bushfires in forest areas during January and February due to projected hotter and drier weather. While less intense, grassfires are described as capable of spreading faster, up to 60 kilometers per hour in open areas, due to finer fuels.

While a La Niña pattern has brought some rainfall, it has not offset severe long-term rainfall deficits in Victoria.

Historical La Niña years have been associated with challenging bushfire conditions, including the 2009 Black Saturday fires, the 2003 Great Alpine fires, and a 2002 blaze in the Big Desert Wilderness Park.

Forecasts anticipate extreme heatwave conditions in the region.

Comparison to Los Angeles Wildfires

Reports draw comparisons between the identified risks in Australia and wildfires that affected Los Angeles neighborhoods in January of the previous year. That event resulted in 31 fatalities and the destruction of 16,000 structures, occurring during winter and intensified by strong winds.

According to former NSW fire commissioner Greg Mullins, Los Angeles experienced a period of "climate whiplash" before the significant fire event. This was characterized by several wet years promoting substantial vegetation growth, followed by an extended dry period. These conditions, combined with strong Santa Ana winds, contributed to the spread of fires from brushland into urban areas.

The reports suggest that nearly all Australian capital cities exhibit a comparable combination of conditions conducive to large-scale fires. These include sustained dry periods, dry forests and bushland, deteriorating fire weather conditions, the potential for strong wind gusts, steep topographical slopes, and extensive bushland situated near residential properties. Specific areas identified include parts of Sydney, such as the Northern Beaches, Penrith, and the Blue Mountains, where considerable vegetation loads have accumulated following years of rainfall. In Melbourne, numerous suburbs border grasslands, which can facilitate rapid fire movement.

Factors Contributing to Increased Risk

The report outlines five key findings related to intensified fire conditions:

• Climate change contributed to intensified fire conditions in Los Angeles, occurring in winter.
• The outskirts of Sydney, Melbourne, Canberra, Adelaide, Perth, and Hobart exhibit characteristics similar to those present during destructive Los Angeles fires.
• An increasing population resides in areas susceptible to fires on urban fringes.
• Pollution is identified as contributing to more frequent, costly, intense, and less predictable fire conditions in Australia.
• Fires influenced by climate change are considered increasingly challenging to manage with current firefighting capabilities.

Experts, including Greg Mullins, stated that an event similar to the Los Angeles fires could occur in Australia due to climate change impacts, including worsening fire weather, extended fire seasons, and climatic instability. The report projects that future climate change will increase the likelihood of more dangerous fire weather, predicting a pattern of intense rainfall followed by extended dry periods that could create conditions conducive to the rapid ignition and spread of bush and grass fires.

University of Tasmania fire science professor David Bowman noted that Australia has so far avoided major urban fire impacts similar to the Los Angeles event, but the possibility of a major fire impacting a town or the outer edge of a city, potentially reaching areas not typically considered bushfire-prone, cannot be excluded.

Professor Bowman highlighted that high temperatures are not exclusively necessary for uncontrolled fires, citing strong winds as a significant factor, which can dry out fuel and generate their own wind systems. He also discussed “hydro climactic whiplash,” describing the climate as highly unstable and leading to unpredictable, dynamic weather patterns, making forecasting difficult.

The summer outlook indicates an elevated risk in western and southern Western Australia, central northern New South Wales, and the southern part of Victoria, attributed to long-term rainfall deficits across southern states. A rare sudden stratospheric warming event has also contributed to warmer and drier conditions than anticipated.

Fuel Reduction and Community Preparedness

Retired bushfire scientist David Packham has advocated for increased preventative burns to reduce fire risk, suggesting a minimum of 8 percent of Victorian forests annually, which exceeds the Royal Commission into the 2009 Black Saturday bushfires' recommendation of at least 5 percent. A recent report by fire behavior expert John Cameron estimated that prescribed burns currently cover approximately 1.8 percent of Victoria's forest estate area.

Forest Fire Management Victoria (FFMV) stated it has transitioned from a hectare-based target to a "risk-based approach" for fuel management. FFMV Chief Fire Officer Chris Hardman indicated that the agency aims to maintain fuel-driven bushfire risk in Victoria below 70 percent, reporting the risk at 66 percent as of June 30. FFMV reported reducing fuel-driven bushfire risk across more than 109,000 hectares of public land through planned burning over the past 12 months, which is a decrease from 138,000 hectares in the preceding year.

CFA South East Region Deputy Chief Fire Officer Trevor Owen advised residents to prepare their properties by maintaining grass below 10 centimeters, clearing driveways, and storing firewood indoors.

Recommendations for Risk Reduction

Reports and experts have proposed several key areas to manage future fire risk in Australia:

• Implementing deeper and swifter reductions in pollution both nationally and globally.
• Investing significantly in disaster preparation and community resilience efforts across all governmental tiers.
• Enhancing emergency service and land management capabilities in areas where bushland interfaces with urban infrastructure.
• Investing in retrofitting houses and infrastructure to align properties at highest risk with modern bushfire standards.