Recent assessments indicate a heightened bushfire risk across Victoria and the fringes of several Australian capital cities. This follows increased grassland curing, forecasted heatwave conditions, and a review of urban areas' vulnerability to fire. Reports draw parallels between the potential for large-scale urban wildfires in Australia and previous events in Los Angeles, prompting discussions on preparedness, fuel management strategies, and broader climate factors.
Victoria's Bushfire Outlook
The Country Fire Authority (CFA) observed an increase in grassland curing across Victoria from September to December. By December 29, high curing levels were noted in the state's north-west, northern country, and outer Melbourne suburbs. Deputy Chief Fire Officer Trevor Owen from CFA South East Region stated that outer metropolitan Melbourne areas exhibit significantly dry soil moisture, which would require substantial rainfall to alter conditions. Forecasts anticipate extreme heatwave conditions in the region.
The National Council for Fire and Emergency Service's November seasonal bushfire outlook predicted an increased fire risk for large areas of Victoria, including the south-west, western, north-central, central Victoria, and south-west Gippsland. The report anticipated that abundant grass growth, initially supported by a La Niña weather pattern, would become highly flammable in January, increasing grassfire potential in western and central Victoria. It also noted the possibility of significant bushfires in forest areas during January and February due to projected hotter and drier weather. While La Niña patterns have brought some rainfall, this has not offset severe long-term rainfall deficits. Mr. Owen referenced historical challenging bushfire conditions during some La Niña years, citing events such as the 2009 Black Saturday fires, the 2003 Great Alpine fires, and a 2002 blaze in the Big Desert Wilderness Park. Grassfires, while typically less intense than bushfires, can spread rapidly, potentially reaching up to 60 kilometers per hour in open areas.
Capital Cities and Urban Fringe Vulnerability
A report by the Climate Council and Emergency Leaders for Climate Action indicates that approximately 6.9 million to 7 million Australians residing on the fringes of capital cities are exposed to bushfire risk. This assessment challenges the perception that bushfires are exclusively a rural concern. The report specifically identified residents on the outskirts of Sydney, Melbourne, Canberra, Adelaide, Perth, and Hobart, as well as satellite cities, as being exposed, particularly in suburbs adjacent to bushland or grassland areas. It estimated that up to 90% of homes in these areas were constructed before the implementation of modern bushfire building standards, a factor that could increase the likelihood of ignition from ember attack and subsequent house-to-house fire spread.
Greg Mullins, former NSW fire commissioner and a co-author of the report, described the findings as a warning for suburban residents to assess their bushfire exposure. The report drew parallels with Los Angeles wildfires from the previous year, which resulted in 31 fatalities and the destruction of 16,000 structures. These fires occurred during winter and were intensified by strong winds.
Contributing Factors and Climate Dynamics
Factors identified as contributing to the heightened risk include sustained dry periods, dry forests and bushland, and deteriorating fire weather conditions. Greg Mullins noted that Los Angeles experienced a period of "climate whiplash"—characterized by several wet years promoting substantial vegetation growth followed by an extended dry period—before its significant fire event. The report suggests that nearly all Australian capital cities exhibit a comparable combination of conditions conducive to large-scale fires. These include:
- Sustained dry periods
- Dry forests and bushland
- Deteriorating fire weather conditions
- Potential for strong wind gusts
- Steep topographical slopes
- Extensive bushland situated near residential properties
University of Tasmania fire science professor David Bowman described Australia's climate as highly unstable, leading to unpredictable and dynamic weather patterns, which he termed "hydro climactic whiplash." He also noted that strong winds can be a significant factor in uncontrolled fires, drying out fuel and generating their own wind systems, even without exceptionally high temperatures. Long-term rainfall deficits across southern states, along with a rare sudden stratospheric warming event, have contributed to warmer and drier conditions than anticipated. The report also linked pollution to more frequent, costly, intense, and less predictable fire conditions in Australia, stating that climate change contributes to worsening fire weather and extended fire seasons.
Fuel Reduction and Management Strategies
Discussions continue regarding fuel reduction strategies in Victoria. Retired bushfire scientist David Packham has advocated for increased preventative burns to reduce the risk of catastrophic fires, suggesting a minimum of 8 percent of Victorian forests, compared to the Royal Commission into the 2009 Black Saturday bushfires' recommendation of at least 5 percent annually. A recent report by fire behavior expert John Cameron estimated that prescribed burns currently cover approximately 1.8 percent of Victoria's forest estate area.
Forest Fire Management Victoria (FFMV) stated it has transitioned from a hectare-based target to a "risk-based approach" for fuel management. FFMV Chief Fire Officer Chris Hardman indicated that the agency aims to maintain fuel-driven bushfire risk in Victoria below 70 percent, reporting it at 66 percent as of June 30. FFMV stated it reduced fuel-driven bushfire risk across more than 109,000 hectares of public land through planned burning over the past 12 months, a decrease from 138,000 hectares in the preceding year.
Preparedness and Recommendations
In response to the identified risks, emergency services and expert reports have issued recommendations for preparedness and risk reduction. CFA Deputy Chief Fire Officer Trevor Owen advised residents to prepare properties by:
- Maintaining grass below 10 centimeters
- Clearing driveways
- Storing firewood indoors
The report by the Climate Council and Emergency Leaders for Climate Action proposed three key areas for reducing future fire risk:
- Implementing deeper and swifter reductions in pollution both nationally and globally.
- Investing significantly in disaster preparation and community resilience efforts across all governmental tiers.
- Enhancing emergency service and land management capabilities in areas where bushland interfaces with urban infrastructure.
The report also suggested greater investment in retrofitting houses and infrastructure in high-risk areas to align them with modern bushfire standards.