Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, who received the Nobel Peace Prize in 2019 for ending the war with Eritrea, has faced a decline in global reputation due to civil conflict and increased repression. His party, the Prosperity Party, is expected to dominate the June 1 national election, with opposition divided and millions unable to vote due to violence.
Key Achievements and Reforms
In 2018, Abiy became prime minister, succeeding Hailemariam Desalegn, who had used crackdowns on dissent.
Within 90 days, he negotiated a truce ending the 20-year war with Eritrea. Early reforms included releasing political prisoners and allowing a freer press, leading to his Nobel Peace Prize.
Subsequent Conflicts and Repression
Abiy dissolved the ethnic-based ruling coalition EPRDF in November 2019 and established the Prosperity Party, centralizing authority. He ordered regional states to disband local armies, stripping the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) of regional control.
This sparked conflict, including a civil war with Tigray starting November 2020, estimated to have caused 600,000 casualties. Active insurgencies persist in Tigray, Amhara, and Oromia. The government detained opposition figures and journalists, and restricted free speech.
"The government detained opposition figures and journalists, and restricted free speech."
Election Context
The June 1 parliamentary election will determine the next prime minister. The electoral board excluded Tigray and parts of Amhara due to conflict. Opposition parties report repression and administrative barriers.
The ruling Prosperity Party did not field candidates in over two dozen constituencies, which some analysts see as a strategic move to allow opposition members into parliament and enhance election legitimacy. Analysts express doubts about the election's credibility, citing ongoing violence and political polarization.
"Analysts express doubts about the election's credibility, citing ongoing violence and political polarization."