Lake Turkana’s Rising Waters: A Crisis Unfolds
The world’s largest permanent desert lake is swallowing homes, livelihoods, and lives.
The Heart of the Crisis
Since around 2018, Lake Turkana has been rising at an alarming rate. The cause is a potent mix of tectonic activity, shifting weather patterns in southwestern Ethiopia that have increased inflow from the Omo River, and sediment buildup driven by land-use changes.
The rising waters have submerged homes, grazing lands, schools, roads, and burial grounds. Thousands have been displaced. Komote Island, once part of the mainland, is now separated by roughly 660 yards of water.
A Collapse in Livelihoods
Fishing Declines
Fish catches have dropped sharply. Fishermen report smaller hauls than ever before. Researchers at the Kenya Marine and Fisheries Research Institute note that the lake still holds sufficient fish stocks, but most productive fishing grounds now lie in deeper waters—out of reach for subsistence fishers using non-motorized rafts.
The Herders Turn to Fishing
Since 2021, persistent drought has driven thousands of pastoralist herders to abandon livestock and take up fishing. This has fueled intense competition and armed conflict between the Turkana and Dassanech ethnic groups.
In February 2025, a clash near the Ethiopian border resulted in over 20 deaths.
Nyabonte Kuras, a Dassanech fisherman, described an attack in January 2025 in which his cousin and friend were killed. “Increased fishing competition has brought conflict,” he said. “I struggle to catch enough fish near shore.”
Crocodile Attacks on the Rise
Rising lake levels have created flooded scrubland, bringing humans and crocodiles into closer proximity. Attacks have increased sharply.
Ng'ikalei Loito, an El Molo woman, lost both legs after an attack while bathing. “I am unable to work,” she said. Her family sold most of their livestock to pay medical bills. Her husband was later killed in a cattle raid.
Education and Infrastructure in Ruins
John Wambisa, a geography teacher, reported that student enrollment dropped from over 230 to just 139 due to flooding and the risk of crocodile attacks. “We lost school buildings,” he said. “Water contamination is a constant problem.”
Roads have been destroyed. Schools have closed. Communities have been forced to relocate multiple times—as seen in the displacement of the entire settlement of Kalokol.
The El Molo: A Culture Unmoored
The El Molo people, a marginalized indigenous group, are uniquely vulnerable. Their cultural identity is deeply tied to the lake, which was placed on UNESCO’s List of World Heritage in Danger in 2018.
Alfred Lenkutuk, an El Molo elder on Komote Island, stated: “The community can no longer support itself. We rely on government supplies, but they are insufficient.”
A Complex Web of Problems
Kevin Obiero of the Kenya Marine and Fisheries Research Institute described the situation as “a complex web of interactions.” He emphasized that the lake still holds enough fish for a thriving industry, but fishers lack the capacity to reach deeper grounds.
He called for coordinated interventions: training, motorized boats, electricity, cold storage, better transport, cell coverage, healthcare, and clean water.
Interventions Underway
- Kenyan Government’s Lake Turkana Fisheries Management Plan: Regulations to protect juvenile fish, bans on fishing in breeding grounds, water quality monitoring, and a baseline fish biomass survey.
- Peace-building initiatives: Led by the government and NGOs to reduce conflict in the northern region.
- UNESCO/World Food Programme project: Expanding market access, cold-storage facilities, fishing equipment, microfinance, and loans to diversify livelihoods.
The Toll So Far
- Displacement of entire communities
- Decline in fishing as a viable livelihood
- Armed conflict and fatalities among fisherfolk
- Increased crocodile attacks, resulting in injuries and deaths
- School closures and reduced enrollment
- Loss of livestock and alternative income sources
- Deep cultural disruption for the El Molo people