Colombia's 2026 Presidential Election: Energy Sector at a Crossroads

As Colombia's 2026 presidential election approaches, the country faces a pivotal moment for its energy sector and economy. The outcome will determine the future of hydrocarbon production, foreign investment, and the pace of the energy transition.

Current President Gustavo Petro's policies—including a ban on new oil and gas exploration contracts and tax increases—have contributed to declining hydrocarbon output.

March 2026 oil production stood at 740,497 barrels per day, down from 917,210 a decade earlier. Natural gas output was 700 million cubic feet per day, near historical lows, increasing reliance on LNG imports.

Data from the National Hydrocarbon Agency (ANH) underscores the sector's steady decline under the current administration.

Candidates and Their Energy Policy Stances

Ivan Cepeda (Pacto Historico)

The continuation candidate for Petro's coalition supports a gradual transition away from hydrocarbons toward renewable energy and agriculture. He has described extractive industries as an "exhausted economic model."

Analysts expect his policies to further reduce oil and gas production and deter foreign investment.

Abelardo de la Espriella (Far-Right)

A criminal attorney, his platform emphasizes security and public order through militarization. He proposes ending Petro's "total peace" policy, supporting hydraulic fracturing and issuing new exploration contracts. He aims for 7% annual GDP growth.

Paloma Valencia (Democratic Center)

A senator and protégé of former President Álvaro Uribe, she supports resuming fossil fuel exploitation, including fracking. She targets oil production of 1 million barrels per day. Her running mate Juan Daniel Oviedo stated they would "reactivate the exploitation of fossil fuels" with innovation.

What the Outcome Means for Colombia

A Cepeda victory is expected to continue current policies, deepening the hydrocarbon sector's decline.

Wins by de la Espriella or Valencia would likely reinvigorate the industry through increased exploration and security improvements, potentially reversing the production downtrend.