Australian Ski Season Opens Amid Unusually Warm Winter Forecast
Recent snowfall has allowed Australian ski resorts to open for the 2025 winter season, but a long-range forecast from the Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) predicting an unusually warm winter has prompted varied responses from industry representatives, scientists, and local businesses.
Forecast and Climate Outlook
The BOM forecast indicates a 60-80% chance of below-average rainfall and a high likelihood of temperatures in the top 20% for alpine regions from June to August.
Climatologist Zhi-Weng Chua stated that predicting snow levels is difficult due to short-term factors such as cold fronts with precipitation, though snow depths have trended downward since the 1950s.
BOM senior forecaster Jonathan How said that the combination of El Niño, drier conditions, and warmer temperatures does not favor deep snow cover. He noted that while snow fell in the opening week, daytime temperatures could reach 10°C, potentially reducing snow retention.
"Climate change loads the dice for less snowfall and El Niño loads the dice for a shorter season."
— Dr. Andrew Watkins, Monash University
University of Southern Queensland climate scientist Tim Cowan stated that a poorer season is not guaranteed, but the outlook shows El Niño's influence, which typically reduces moisture from the tropics. He noted that large snowfalls can come from Antarctic blasts that are not linked to El Niño.
A 2022 study using the SkiSim2 model predicted that average resort season length could drop by 15% to 17% by 2030, depending on greenhouse gas emissions.
Resort Preparations and Snowmaking
Alpine Resorts Victoria (ARV) general manager Alan Arthur said Mount Buller and Mount Stirling have invested heavily in snowmaking, with machines running for several weeks. New "snow factories" can produce snow in variable conditions, and snowmaking has become more efficient.
Arthur stated that two or three decent snowfalls would be sufficient for adequate coverage.
Some resorts have invested in systems capable of producing snow at temperatures up to 20°C above zero.
"Alpine conditions have always been variable... resorts are accustomed to planning for a wide range of weather outcomes."
— Josh Elliott, CEO, Snow Resorts Australia
Industry and Local Business Response
Falls Creek Business Chamber president Michelle Lovell said hotels and restaurants are taking the forecast "with a grain of salt." She reported that forward bookings are strong, with many visitors planning new experiences. Lovell noted that south-facing terrain holds snow well, providing skiing for at least 10 weeks.
An ARV report shows Victorian alpine resorts generate over $2 billion in annual economic output and support more than 12,000 full-time equivalent jobs.
Ski resort visitation Australia-wide has declined over the past decade, with 1.7 million lift ticket or season pass users in 2024, compared to 2 million in 2015. However, 2023 recorded 1.9 million users, and 2021 recorded 901,000 during the pandemic.
In Jindabyne, New South Wales, optimism has been boosted by the recent Milano Cortina Winter Olympics, where local athlete Josie Baff won gold in women's snowboard cross. Jindabyne Chamber of Commerce head Olivier Kapetanakos said this success could attract more people to the slopes, particularly younger visitors and families.
Mount Buller plans a celebration in July to welcome back local Winter Olympians, including gold medallist Jakara Anthony.
Scientific Concerns
Australian National University researcher Ruby Olsson said, "There is a really stark difference between the emissions scenarios. The more we can reduce our emissions, the cheaper and more effective our adaptation will be."
Freestyle skier Mia Rennie stated, "It's deeply concerning... We need to be putting a stop to fossil fuels and use renewables to have these winters."