Shangri-La Dialogue 2025: US Urges Allied Defense Spending, Avoids Taiwan Mention; AUKUS Announces Subsea Drone Project

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A Quieter Tone, New Tech, and Rising Tensions: The 2025 Shangri-La Dialogue

The 2025 Shangri-La Dialogue, Asia's premier defense summit hosted by the International Institute for Strategic Studies, convened in Singapore from May 31 to June 2. The conference agenda was dominated by discussions on China's military modernization, regional security dynamics, and the strength of US alliances. Key developments included a toned-down address by US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, a new AUKUS project for undersea drones, and calls for transparency regarding maritime infrastructure.

US Defense Secretary's Address

US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth delivered a speech on June 1 that analysts described as less confrontational than his previous year's address. Hegseth characterized the approach as "strong, quiet and clear," stating that "the era of performative outrage is over." He quoted Theodore Roosevelt, saying the US would "speak softly, but carry a big stick."

"The era of performative outrage is over."
— US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth

Hegseth said US-China relations are "better than they've been in many years" but expressed "rightful alarm" about China's military activities. He stated that "a Pacific dominated by any hegemon would unravel the regional balance of power and undermine the equilibrium we all seek to preserve." The speech reiterated the concept of a "constructive, strategic partnership" that emerged from a recent meeting between President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping in Beijing.

For the first time in over a decade, a US defense secretary did not mention Taiwan in the main address. When questioned later, Hegseth said US policy toward Taiwan remains unchanged and that future arms sales rest solely with President Trump. A $14 billion arms package to Taiwan remains stalled. Hegseth denied that holds were due to stockpile issues.

Hegseth urged Asian allies to increase defense spending, stating the US needed "partners not protectorates." He praised Australia, South Korea, the Philippines, Singapore, Malaysia, and Thailand for their defense contributions. Hegseth also boasted about a $1.5 trillion US defense budget request.

Reactions and Analysis

• Rory Medcalf (Australian National University): Described the speech as perhaps the least confrontational in the 23-year history of the dialogue, reflecting uncertainty about the US negotiating position.
• Ankit Panda (Carnegie Endowment for International Peace): Called the speech "really light on substance" and said it did not offer a clear vision for avoiding conflict with China.
• Zhou Bo (Retired Chinese Air Force Colonel): Noted the speech was "more moderate" on US-China relations compared to 2024.
• Da Wei (Tsinghua University): Commended the use of "constructive strategic stability" but said the Roosevelt reference carried "distinct coloring of interventionism."

China's Representation

For the second consecutive year, China did not send its defense minister to the forum, instead sending a lower-level delegation of military experts and scholars.

AUKUS Announcement

The US, UK, and Australia announced a new project under AUKUS Pillar II to develop underwater drone technology for protecting undersea cables. The project will deliver a suite of multi-mission uncrewed underwater vehicle (UUV) payloads, including sensors and weapons systems. Additionally, Australia will purchase three secondhand Virginia-class submarines from the US to simplify supply chain management and reduce costs.

"The seabed is a battlefield."
— Australian Defence Minister Richard Marles

Key Speeches and Statements

Vietnamese leader To Lam delivered the keynote address on May 31, emphasizing the use of consensus to manage differences and promote regional stability. He warned of risks from "unchecked competition" where "might makes it right." Lam has consolidated power, becoming both Communist Party general secretary and president.

Australian Defence Minister Richard Marles stated that "the seabed is a battlefield" and urged China to be more transparent about its maritime operations. He noted five cable cuts in the Taiwan Strait attributed to China and three in the Baltic Sea alleged to be committed by Russia. Marles also criticized weak international controls over "shadow fleet" vessels used for sanctions evasion, illegal fishing, and trafficking.

Japanese Defense Minister Shinjiro Koizumi emphasized that division weakens deterrence while unity strengthens it. He dismissed Chinese criticism of Japan's military buildup as "strange," given China's nuclear arsenal. Japan recently lifted a ban on lethal weapons exports.

Philippine Defense Minister Gilberto Teodoro Jr. stated that while the US can engage China from a position of strength, the Philippines cannot. He said he would not change his tone unless China changes its behavior. Teodoro also suggested Taiwan residents could take refuge in the Philippines in the event of invasion.

Netherlands Defense Minister Dilan Yesilgöz-Zegerius noted that regional conflicts now have global implications, citing drones from Iran and soldiers from North Korea in the Ukraine war. She called for a shared response.

Other Discussions

• Taiwan: China claims Taiwan as its own territory and has not ruled out using force. The US follows a policy of "strategic ambiguity" regarding military intervention in a Chinese attack on Taiwan.
• Ukraine and Middle East: The conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East were discussed, including the impact of the Strait of Hormuz closure on global oil prices. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy requested additional US air defense ammunition before the conference; he did not attend.
• NATO: US Defense Secretary Hegseth criticized European allies for insufficient defense spending while praising Asian partners. NATO Military Committee Chair Admiral Giuseppe Cavo Dragone dismissed concerns of friction with the US, calling the relationship stable.