A synthesis of three recent national polls reveals a consistent Democratic advantage on the generic congressional ballot, low approval ratings for President Trump, and widespread public dissatisfaction with both major political parties and key institutions. The polls, conducted by different organizations at different times, show a significant lead for Democrats among registered voters and a majority of the public expressing a lack of confidence in Congress and the federal government.
Congressional Ballot Advantage
Multiple polls indicate a Democratic lead in hypothetical head-to-head matchups for control of Congress, though the reported margin varies.
- NBC News Poll (May 29 - June 7): Democrats lead Republicans by 5 points (49% to 44%) among registered voters. Among independents, the Democratic lead is 12 points (46% to 34%). This lead is similar to a 6-point margin recorded in March.
- NPR/PBS News/Marist Poll (November 10-13): Democrats lead by 14 points (55% to 41%) among adults. Among independents, Democratic candidates are favored by a 33-point margin.
"Among independents, the Democratic lead is 12 points (46% to 34%) in the NBC News poll, and a 33-point margin in the Marist poll."
- Historical Context: The polls note different historical precedents. The NBC News poll references a tie in May 2022 and a 10-point Democratic lead in June 2018. The Marist poll notes that in fall 2022 (during President Biden's term), the Democratic lead ranged from 0 to 4 points, preceding a loss of 9 House seats. The report also notes that redistricting efforts by both parties have reduced the number of highly competitive seats.
Presidential Approval
Both polls that measured approval of President Trump recorded low figures.
- NBC News Poll: President Trump's approval rating is 42% among registered voters and 39% among all adults. Two-thirds of independents disapprove. Among Republican voters, approval is 82%, down from 88% in March.
- NPR/PBS News/Marist Poll: President Trump's approval rating is 39% among adults. Among independents, his approval is 24%. Nine-in-ten Republicans approve of the president's job performance. The poll also recorded a "strong disapproval" rating of 48%, the highest in that survey since January 6, 2021.
"Two-thirds of independents disapprove of President Trump. Among all adults, his approval rating sits at 39%."
Public Sentiment on Direction and Institutions
Public confidence in the direction of the country and its institutions is low.
- National Outlook (NBC News): 56% of registered voters say America's best years are behind it. 60% of Democrats and independents hold this view. Nearly 80% of voters believe the American Dream is harder to attain now than a generation ago.
- Confidence in Government (NBC News): 50% of voters have little or no confidence in the federal government; 58% have little or no confidence in Congress.
- Institutional Confidence (NPR/PBS News/Marist Poll): High percentages of respondents reported having little or no confidence in key institutions, including Congress (80%), the media (75%), the Democratic Party (71%), the Republican Party (65%), the Supreme Court (62%), and the Presidency (61%).
Perceptions of Major Parties and Future Leaders
A third poll focusing on voter attitudes provides additional context on party perception and primary voter priorities.
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Party Favorability (NBC News): Both major parties are viewed negatively by the general electorate. 30% of registered voters view the Democratic Party positively (52% negative), while 37% view the Republican Party positively (51% negative). Independents hold low positive views of both parties (13% for Democrats, 16% for Republicans). Within their own parties, 77% of Republicans view their party positively, compared to 62% of Democrats.
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Primary Voter Priorities (NBC News): A majority of Republican primary voters (70%) prioritize a candidate who aligns with their views over electability. Democratic primary voters are more divided, with 56% prioritizing issue alignment and 42% prioritizing electability.
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Favorability of Key Figures (NBC News): The poll measured favorability for several potential future leaders among the general electorate:
- Vice President JD Vance: 38% positive, 49% negative.
- Former Vice President Kamala Harris: 34% positive, 51% negative.
- Secretary of State Marco Rubio: 34% positive, 41% negative.
- Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: 31% positive, 42% negative.
- California Gov. Gavin Newsom: 27% positive, 45% negative.
"A majority of Republican primary voters (70%) prioritize a candidate who aligns with their views over electability."
Methodology
- NBC News Poll (May 29 - June 7): Surveyed 2,400 registered voters. Margin of error: ±2 percentage points.
- NPR/PBS News/Marist Poll (November 10-13): Surveyed 1,443 adults. Margin of error was not provided in the source text for the overall figure but methodology was described.
- NBC News Poll (February 27 - March 3): Surveyed 1,000 registered voters via telephone and online methods. Margin of error: ±3.1 percentage points. Subgroup margins of error were higher (e.g., ±5.1 points for Democratic primary voters).