A recent NPR/PBS News/Marist poll indicates a 14-point advantage for Democrats in a hypothetical congressional election and a 39% approval rating for President Trump. Separately, an NBC News poll highlights that primary voters, particularly Republicans, prioritize ideological alignment over electability when choosing candidates for Congress. Both surveys also report generally negative public sentiment toward major political parties and institutions.
Congressional Election Outlook: Democrats Hold 14-Point Lead
An NPR/PBS News/Marist poll, conducted from November 10-13 among 1,443 adults, found that 55% of respondents would vote for a Democratic candidate in their district if the election for Congress were held today, compared to 41% for Republicans. This 14-point lead for Democrats represents the largest recorded in the Marist poll since November 2017.
Key findings related to congressional preferences include:
- Democrats held a 14-point advantage over Republicans on the generic congressional ballot.
- Independent voters favored Democratic candidates by a 33-point margin.
Historical Context of Generic Congressional Ballot
Historical context from previous election cycles was also noted:
- In fall 2022, during President Biden's term, Democrats' lead ranged from 0 to 4 points, preceding a loss of 9 House seats.
- In 2018, during President Trump's first term, Democrats' lead ranged between 6 and 12 points, preceding a gain of 40 House seats.
- In 2014, during President Obama's term, Republicans held a 5-point advantage, preceding a gain of 13 House seats.
Redistricting efforts by both major parties were identified as potential factors influencing future electoral outcomes and limiting the number of highly competitive seats.
Presidential Approval: Trump's Rating at 39%
The Marist poll reported President Trump's approval rating at 39%, marking his lowest approval in that specific poll since January 6, 2021. Additionally, 48% of respondents expressed strong disapproval of the President's job performance, a figure not seen since January 6, 2021.
Specifics on presidential approval:
- Among independents, President Trump's approval rating was 24%.
- Among Republicans, 9-in-10 reported approving of the President's job performance.
Top Presidential Priorities Identified by Voters
When asked about the President's top priority, 57% of respondents identified lowering prices, while 16% selected immigration. Among Republicans, 40% prioritized lowering prices, compared to 34% who prioritized immigration.
Primary Voters Prioritize Ideology Over Electability
An NBC News poll, conducted from February 27 to March 3 among 1,000 registered voters, indicated that primary voters tend to prioritize a candidate's ideological alignment.
- Republican primary voters: Seven in 10 expressed a preference for candidates who closely align with their views, while 27% favored a candidate with a stronger chance of winning the general election.
- Democratic primary voters: 56% preferred candidates aligned with their views, and 42% opted for candidates considered more electable.
Shift in Primary Voter Priorities Over Time
This trend represents a shift from some previous primary cycles:
- In June 2023, 56% of Republican primary voters prioritized issue alignment for a presidential nominee, with 39% prioritizing defeating President Biden.
- In February 2020, 53% of Democratic presidential primary voters favored a candidate with the best chance to defeat then-President Trump, compared to 42% who favored issue alignment.
Negative Sentiment Toward Parties and Institutions
Both polls shed light on public confidence and views regarding political parties and institutions, revealing a generally negative sentiment.
Views on Major Political Parties (NBC News Poll - Registered Voters)
- Democratic Party: 30% of registered voters viewed the party positively, while 52% held negative views. Among Democrats, 62% viewed their party positively.
- Republican Party: 37% of registered voters viewed the party positively, while 51% held negative views. Among Republicans, 77% viewed their party positively.
- Independent Voters: Low positive views were reported for both parties, with 13% for Democrats and 16% for Republicans.
Public Confidence in Key Institutions (Marist Poll - Little to No Confidence)
The Marist poll measured levels of little to no confidence in various institutions:
- Congress: 80%
- Media: 75%
- Democratic Party: 71%
- Republican Party: 65%
- Supreme Court: 62%
- Presidency: 61%
Perceptions of Potential Future Leaders
The NBC News poll also surveyed general electorate perceptions of various political figures:
- Senator J.D. Vance: 38% positive, 49% negative.
- Senator Marco Rubio: 34% positive, 41% negative.
- Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: 31% positive, 42% negative.
- Former Vice President Kamala Harris: 34% positive, 51% negative.
- California Gov. Gavin Newsom: 27% positive, 45% negative.
Methodology
The NPR/PBS News/Marist poll was conducted from November 10-13 among 1,443 adults.
The NBC News poll surveyed 1,000 registered voters from February 27 to March 3, utilizing a combination of telephone and online methods. The overall margin of error for the NBC News poll was plus or minus 3.1 percentage points. Subgroup margins of error included plus or minus 5.1 points for Democratic primary voters and plus or minus 5.5 points for Republican primary voters.