Nicolás Maduro, the former President of Venezuela, has been apprehended at his Caracas compound and is now in US custody, facing charges of narco-terrorism and conspiracy-related drug offenses. This development has triggered a range of reactions among Venezuelans, both within the country and in the diaspora, alongside discussions about the nation's political future and its ongoing economic and humanitarian challenges. The US has indicated intentions to access Venezuela's significant oil reserves, a move that has drawn both support and concern.
Apprehension of Nicolás Maduro and US Involvement
Former President Nicolás Maduro, along with his wife, was apprehended at their compound in Caracas. He is currently in US custody, facing charges related to narco-terrorism and drug conspiracy. Following this action, US President Donald Trump announced the US intention to reclaim oil assets formerly held in Venezuela, prioritizing access for American companies. Specific plans for this remain vague. US military assets remain deployed in the Caribbean, with the stated objective of controlling oil movements to maintain leverage. In a meeting with oil executives, ExxonMobil CEO Darren Woods characterized Venezuela as "uninvestable" in the current climate.
Immediate Political Developments and Prisoner Release
In the immediate aftermath, Vice-President Delcy RodrĂguez was sworn in as interim president, reportedly with US support. Approximately one week after the US operation to apprehend Mr. Maduro, the Venezuelan government reportedly began releasing a substantial number of foreign and Venezuelan prisoners. This action followed years of demands from the opposition and the international community. Concurrently, Venezuelan opposition leader MarĂa Corina Machado announced her intention to return to Venezuela and called for new national elections.
Diverse Reactions to the Transition
Reactions to these developments have varied significantly, reflecting differing perspectives among Venezuelans:
- Diaspora Response: Venezuelans living abroad, including human rights activist Diana Camacaro and former parliament member Gaby Arellano, expressed a sense of relief, anticipation for change, and cautious optimism. Many reported renewed hope for an eventual return from exile, with some individuals contacting relatives they had not communicated with for extended periods. Maria Fernanda Gonzalez, who departed Caracas in 2017, conveyed a feeling of renewed opportunity. Santiago Vidal Calvo, a Venezuelan foreign policy analyst, described the news regarding Maduro's reported removal as difficult to fully comprehend for those whose formative years were marked by economic decline, corruption, and social challenges under previous administrations. An October AtlasIntel/Bloomberg poll indicated that approximately two-thirds of Venezuelans outside the country supported a US military intervention to depose Maduro. Some, like Ms. Camacaro, stated they do not feel secure returning until a stable democratic government is established, expressing an aspiration to return in the future to contribute to national change.
- Internal Perspectives: Within Venezuela, reactions adopted a more cautious stance, highlighting the complex realities of a potential political transition. Anonymous opposition representatives in Caracas reported that the existing power structure largely remained intact despite Maduro's absence, with senior officials continuing to exert control. Local media, opposition figures, and policy-makers warned that Maduro's removal alone would not dismantle the established system. An editorial published in the independent Venezuelan publication El Nacional stated that the country transitioned from initial widespread enthusiasm at the reported fall of the leader to a situation where the political system, though affected, remained in power. Reports from Venezuelan municipalities, including Maracaibo and Valencia, indicated minimal immediate changes at the local level, with daily public services and administrative functions continuing as before. A Valencian resident described the local situation as "extremely tense." An AtlasIntel/Bloomberg poll showed that approximately one-third of Venezuelans within the country supported a US military intervention. Reactions in Caracas varied; residents in the poorer Catia neighborhood expressed strong opposition to the US action and called for Maduro's return, while those in the less affluent Chacao neighborhood supported the US intervention and advocated for new national elections. Marcos Leon, a street artist, described the post-Maduro situation as marked by "uncertainty and unease," and voiced fears among Venezuelans regarding further external interference given the country's rich resources. Jorge GarcĂa, a teacher, described widespread fear among Venezuelans regarding online or public expressions of dissent due to state repression under the previous administration, citing reports of journalists being detained and civilians' phones searched for anti-regime content.
Political Leadership and Future Outlook
MarĂa Corina Machado, a Nobel Peace Prize recipient and prominent opposition figure credited with unifying anti-Maduro forces, publicly welcomed the news of Maduro's removal. She articulated goals for restoring order, releasing political prisoners, and rebuilding the country.
However, among opposition organizers, policy advisers, and civil society figures within Venezuela, concerns emerged regarding the pace of a transition to formal power under Machado. Several sources indicated that while Machado was considered a legitimate leader, the institutional conditions for her to govern might not yet be established. Concerns were expressed that a rapid transition could create unfavorable conditions for her leadership. Analysts cautioned that placing Machado in control of a state still managed by existing generals, judges, and police commanders risked compromising her influence before the system could be dismantled. Warnings were also issued that a premature transition could provide an opportunity for hardliners to reassert control, particularly if escalating violence or failed negotiations occurred. Interior Minister Diosdado Cabello, a former military officer, was identified by analysts as retaining significant influence within the country's security state, maintaining substantial loyalty within the armed forces and security services, and being characterized as a long-term aspirant to the Venezuelan presidency.
A proposal was made to maintain interim leader Delcy RodrĂguez in executive control until a constitutionally mandated election could be held in 90 days. Machado publicly rejected this proposal, characterizing it as a continuation of the previous administration. The El Nacional editorial concluded that the path to freedom would be a protracted and complex process. Approximately 23% of Venezuela's population has been displaced during Mr. Maduro's tenure, and while hope exists among the Venezuelan diaspora, it is accompanied by caution.
Economic and Humanitarian Situation
Venezuela's economy is predominantly reliant on its oil industry, which was nationalized in the 1970s. The country possesses the world's largest oil reserves, estimated at 300 billion barrels, but its daily extraction is approximately 900,000 barrels. The government has faced substantial sanctions from the US and the international community, which, alongside domestic policies, contributed to hyperinflation. Reports indicate widespread corruption within government ranks, cited as a factor in the limited distribution of oil revenues to the general populace.
The United Nations refugee agency (UNHCR) reports that over 7.9 million Venezuelans have left the country since Maduro assumed power in 2013, representing the largest exodus in Latin America's recent history and one of the world's largest displacement crises. A majority of these individuals have sought refuge in other South American nations, with Colombia hosting the largest number. Reports from the United Nations and Human Rights Watch indicate that millions have exited the country due to economic collapse.
Most Venezuelans continue to experience poverty, with incomes frequently unable to meet basic needs. Gloria PĂ©rez, a Caracas retiree, receives a monthly pension of 300 Bolivars (approximately $1.50) and a "war bonus" of about $150, which she states is insufficient to cover basic living expenses, relying on her daughter's multiple jobs for financial support. While hyperinflation has eased and food shortages are less severe in recent years, unofficial reports indicate that prices for goods such as meat, fish, and drinking water have doubled since the end of last year, with retailers reportedly increasing prices in anticipation of further cost of living rises. Many individuals in Venezuela participate in the "informal" economy, often engaging in multiple jobs or side hustles. Corruption remains prevalent, and police involvement in extortion networks has reportedly increased significantly.
JosĂ© Rafael RodrĂguez MelĂ©ndez, a fruit and vegetable vendor who has resided in Cucuta, Colombia, for a decade, expressed a desire to return to Venezuela but noted the ongoing employment crisis, stating that securing a job in Venezuela is currently unfeasible.