The S&P/ASX 200 Index experienced varied performance across the recent trading period, influenced by fluctuations on Wall Street and movements in global commodity prices for oil and gold. Key corporate developments included a takeover offer for BlueScope Steel, an update on Northern Star Resources' production, and multiple analyst rating adjustments issued for companies such as Premier Investments, SGH Ltd, Codan Ltd, Liontown Ltd, Aeris Resources, Suncorp Group, Develop Global Ltd, and Atlas Arteria Group.
Market Performance Overview
The S&P/ASX 200 Index recorded a series of gains and declines throughout the week. On Monday, the index closed at 8,728.6 points. It was then anticipated to open 35 points, or 0.4%, higher on Tuesday, influenced by a strong close on Wall Street, where the Dow Jones rose by 1.55%, the S&P 500 by 0.7%, and the Nasdaq by 0.65%. The ASX 200 subsequently increased by 0.55% to 8,808.5 points on Tuesday.
Heading into Wednesday, the Australian share market was projected for a relatively flat session, with SPI futures indicating an expected opening of 2 points higher for the ASX 200. This followed a Wall Street session where the Dow Jones decreased by 0.8%, the S&P 500 by 0.3%, and the Nasdaq by 0.3%. The ASX 200 closed higher on Wednesday, recording a 0.15% increase to 8,695.6 points.
For Thursday, the ASX 200 was projected to open marginally lower, with SPI futures indicating an expected 3-point decrease, influenced by mixed performance on Wall Street where the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 0.6%, the S&P 500 remained flat, and the Nasdaq Composite was up 0.5%. The S&P/ASX 200 Index then experienced a slight decline on Friday, closing at 8,717.8 points. Looking ahead to the following Monday, the ASX 200 was projected to open 29 points, or 0.35%, higher, following positive market activity on Wall Street where the Dow Jones increased by 0.5%, the S&P 500 rose by 0.65%, and the Nasdaq advanced by 0.8%.
Commodity Markets
Oil Prices
Crude oil prices showed volatility throughout the period. Ahead of Tuesday's market open, WTI crude increased by 1.7% to US$58.29 per barrel and Brent crude rose by 1.6% to US$61.74 per barrel, amidst uncertainty regarding Venezuela. Overnight before Wednesday, WTI crude oil price increased by 2.6% to US$61.01 a barrel, and Brent crude oil price rose by 2.2% to US$65.31 a barrel, following news regarding the cancellation of meetings with Iran and statements to protesters.
However, ahead of Thursday's trading, WTI crude oil price decreased by 1.6% to US$56.20 per barrel, and Brent crude oil price fell by 0.95% to US$60.13 per barrel, following reports of an agreement for the import of up to US$2 billion worth of Venezuelan crude. On Friday night, oil prices increased, with the WTI crude oil price rising by 2.35% to US$59.12 per barrel and the Brent crude oil price increasing by 2.2% to US$63.34 per barrel, a movement attributed to concerns regarding Iranian supply. ASX 200 energy shares, including Beach Energy Ltd and Santos Ltd, were noted as potentially being affected by these price movements.
Gold Prices
Gold prices also experienced fluctuations. Ahead of Tuesday, gold futures rose by 2.8% to US$4,449 an ounce, attributed to demand for safe-haven assets following reports of UK strikes in Venezuela. By Wednesday, the gold futures price decreased by 0.3% to US$4,601.5 an ounce, having previously reached a record high driven by increased expectations of US Fed interest rate cuts before easing. Ahead of Thursday, gold prices softened overnight, with a 0.75% decrease in gold futures prices to US$4,462 per ounce, attributed by some analysts to profit-taking activities by traders. On Friday night, the gold futures price advanced by 0.9% to US$4,500.9 per ounce, driven by geopolitical concerns and expectations of US interest rate reductions. ASX 200 gold shares, such as Newmont Corporation and Northern Star Resources Ltd, were noted as potentially experiencing subdued sessions due to softening gold prices at various points during the week.
Company News and Analyst Ratings
Aeris Resources Ltd (ASX: AIS)
Bell Potter maintained a 'buy' rating for Aeris Resources, a copper miner, with an improved price target of 82 cents. This assessment followed the company's receipt of development consent for its Constellation Project, which is expected to support mining operations by mid-2026. Bell Potter also noted that Aeris Resources could be an acquisition target, citing low valuation multiples. The Aeris Resources share price was 62 cents.
Atlas Arteria Group (ASX: ALX)
Morgans analysts retained a 'hold' rating for Atlas Arteria Group shares, adjusting its price target to $4.74. The broker’s assessment indicated a downgraded forecast of ALX's free cashflow and cash reserves but noted the company is seen as capable of sustaining its current dividend per share (DPS) of 40 cents until at least the end of the decade. A DCF-based business-as-usual valuation of ALX was reduced by 30 cents to $4.43 per share due to forecast changes. The 12-month target price, which includes a premium for potential takeover activity, declined 31 cents to $4.74 per share.
BlueScope Steel Ltd (ASX: BSL) / SGH Ltd (ASX: SGH)
BlueScope Steel confirmed receipt of a $30.00 per share takeover offer from a consortium comprising SGH Ltd and US-based Steel Dynamics. BlueScope Steel is currently evaluating this offer, having previously rejected three prior proposals. Bell Potter affirmed its 'hold' rating and a $52.00 price target for SGH Ltd shares. Bell Potter noted that the acquisition of BlueScope's Australia and Rest of World businesses at cycle-lows could benefit SGH shareholders. The broker estimated SGH would pay A$6.00-9.00 per share for the non-North America assets or 8.4-12.6x EV / FY25a EBIT (compared to SGH's 15.2x pre-deal). Bell Potter made no material changes to its EPS forecasts and valuation for SGH in its report.
Codan Ltd
Analysts at Bell Potter maintained a 'hold' rating for Codan Ltd shares, increasing the price target to $36.70 from $27.80. The assessment suggested Codan shares are currently trading at fair value, at 33x EV / EBIT, amidst improving operating momentum and outlook in both business segments. The potential for a FY26e Metal Detection revenue upgrade was noted if positive commentary emerges during the 1H26e result, considering the seasonality in the Metal Detection business.
Develop Global Ltd (ASX: DVP)
Bell Potter maintained a 'buy' rating for Develop Global Ltd shares, increasing its price target to $5.80. The broker noted the company as a small-cap copper-zinc exposure, stating its view that it is undervalued compared to peers in the resources sector, following the completion of Woodlawn de-risking activities.
Liontown Ltd
Bell Potter maintained its 'buy' rating for lithium miner Liontown Ltd shares and significantly improved its price target to $2.48 from $1.52, citing updated lithium price outlooks. Bell Potter's updated price outlook indicated that Liontown would deleverage from a net debt of $274 million by September 30, 2025, to a net cash position by the end of 2026. Earnings per share (EPS) changes included +2.3 cents per share (previously -2.3 cents per share) for FY26, a 230% increase for FY27, and a 106% increase for FY28. Liontown's wholly-owned Kathleen Valley lithium project was noted for its strategic scale, long project life, and location within a tier-one mining jurisdiction.
Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX: NST)
Analysts at Bell Potter maintained a 'buy' rating and a $30.00 price target on Northern Star Resources shares. The brokerage noted that the 8.6% share price decline and A$3.3 billion market capitalization loss following a recent production downgrade might be an overreaction, assuming the production issues are temporary and will normalize in the second half of the year.
Premier Investments Ltd (ASX: PMV)
Bell Potter maintained a 'buy' rating for Premier Investments Ltd shares, adjusting its price target to $20.00 from $26.50. The broker's assessment, despite a recent update from the company, suggested that the current share price implies minimal earnings for the Smiggle brand. Bell Potter stated that it sees limited catalysts for Smiggle, apart from the interim management change, and lowered its assumptions. The company, which owns Peter Alexander and Smiggle, expects first-half EBIT of $120 million, which is 10% below consensus estimates. Bell Potter indicated that the Smiggle business is negatively impacting performance, particularly in the United Kingdom. The broker highlighted the Peter Alexander brand's valuation at $2 billion, compared to the company's total market capitalization of $2.2 billion. The Premier Investments share price was $13.56.
Suncorp Group Ltd (ASX: SUN)
Morgan Stanley retained an 'overweight' rating on Suncorp Group, an insurance company, with a trimmed price target of $22.25. The broker suggested that recent share price weakness in late 2025 presents a buying opportunity. While acknowledging some risk to Suncorp's dividends, Morgan Stanley anticipated material improvement in earnings quality due to reinsurance options, potentially leading to a re-rating of the shares in 2026. The Suncorp share price was $17.41.