Back
Finance

Australian Equities Show Mixed Performance Amid Fluctuating Commodity Prices and Company Earnings Reports

Generated on: Last updated: 27 sources
View source

The Australian share market experienced varied performance across recent trading sessions, influenced by global market movements, commodity price fluctuations, and a series of company financial updates. The S&P/ASX 200 Index recorded both gains and declines, with future projections indicating a mix of openings. Commodity markets saw volatility, with oil prices reacting to supply and geopolitical events, while gold prices moved on safe-haven demand and interest rate expectations. Numerous ASX-listed companies released half-year or full-year results, leading to significant share price movements and adjustments in analyst ratings across various sectors.

Australian Market Performance

S&P/ASX 200 Index Movements

The S&P/ASX 200 Index closed Tuesday with a 0.65% decline at 8,815.9 points. On Wednesday, the index closed higher, recording a 0.15% increase to 8,695.6 points. Thursday saw the index close at 8,927.5 points, experiencing a slight decline, and later increased by 0.9% to 9,086.2 points.

On Friday, the index experienced a slight decline, closing at 8,717.8 points, and later closed at 8,937.1 points, gaining 0.22%. Monday recorded a 1% decline, closing at 8,778.6 points, and later opened higher, increasing by 1.2% to 8,884.2 points by 10:37 am AEDT.

Tuesday saw the index increase by 0.55% to 8,808.5 points, and later by 0.9% to 8,857.1 points. It also concluded a previous week with a 0.1% increase, reaching 8,860.1 points. Afternoon trade on another day saw a gain of 0.8%, reaching 9,088.5 points.

Future Market Projections

Future projections indicated a mixed outlook for the ASX 200, with forecasts ranging from declines driven by Wall Street selloffs to potential rebounds.

  • Wednesday: SPI futures indicated an expected 0.7% (59-point) decrease for the ASX 200.
  • Thursday: A forecast projected a 3-point decrease for the ASX 200.
  • Tuesday: Predictions anticipated a strong close on Wall Street, with a potential opening increase of 35 points (0.4%).
  • Wednesday (another): A relatively flat session was projected, with an expected opening of 2 points higher.
  • Friday: The ASX 200 was projected to open 0.25% (22 points) higher despite Wall Street declines. Another forecast indicated a potential decline of 52 points (0.55%).
  • Tuesday (another): The ASX 200 was anticipated to rebound, with an 81-point (0.95%) higher open.
  • Wednesday (yet another): The ASX 200 was projected to open 0.65% lower, translating to a 58-point decrease.
  • A potential 0.7% rise for the ASX 200 was indicated for Tuesday.
  • Monday: The ASX 200 was projected to open 29 points (0.35%) higher.

International Market Influences

US markets observed varied performance across sessions.

  • On one occasion, the Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq recorded declines of 1.8%, 2%, and 2.3% respectively.
  • In late trading, the Dow Jones was down 0.6%, the S&P 500 remained flat, and the Nasdaq Composite was up 0.5%.
  • Later, the Dow Jones rose by 1.55%, the S&P 500 by 0.7%, and the Nasdaq by 0.65%.
  • The Dow Jones decreased by 0.8%, the S&P 500 by 0.3%, and the Nasdaq by 0.3% on another occasion.
  • Wall Street saw declines of 0.05% for the Dow Jones, 0.55% for the S&P 500, and 1.4% for the Nasdaq, influenced by a 12% decrease in Microsoft shares.
  • European markets and late Wall Street trade contributed to positive performance, with the Dow Jones rising 1.1%, the S&P 500 increasing by 0.65%, and the Nasdaq by 0.7%.
  • US markets saw declines of 0.8% for the Dow Jones, 1.35% for the S&P 500, and 2.15% for the Nasdaq.
  • Another session saw the Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq each record a 0.7% gain.
  • US markets were closed for Presidents Day on one occasion.

Commodity Markets

Oil Prices

Oil prices saw significant volatility, with increases primarily driven by supply disruption events, geopolitical tensions, and inventory reductions. Declines were attributed to easing tensions and reports of new supply agreements.

Increases:

  • WTI crude oil advanced by 1.8% to US$60.53 per barrel, and Brent crude oil rose by 1.1% to US$64.66 per barrel, attributed to supply disruption events in Kazakhstan.
  • Another increase saw WTI rise 1.7% to US$58.29 per barrel and Brent crude rise 1.6% to US$61.74 per barrel, amid uncertainty regarding Venezuela.
  • WTI crude oil increased by 2.6% to US$61.01 a barrel, and Brent crude oil rose by 2.2% to US$65.31 a barrel, following news regarding Donald Trump's cancellation of meetings with Iran.
  • WTI crude oil prices rose 3.3% to US$65.34 per barrel, and Brent crude oil prices climbed 3.25% to US$70.62 per barrel, attributed to reports of former President Donald Trump considering strikes on Iran.
  • WTI crude oil rose by 1.9% to US$63.31 per barrel, and Brent crude oil increased by 1.7% to US$67.42 per barrel, attributed to a reduction in oil inventories.
  • On another occasion, WTI crude oil rose by 2% to US$66.47 per barrel, and Brent crude oil climbed 1.9% to US$71.69 per barrel, influenced by news of a potential decision by Donald Trump concerning Iran within 10 days.
  • On Friday night, WTI crude oil price rose by 2.35% to US$59.12 per barrel, and the Brent crude oil price increased by 2.2% to US$63.34 per barrel, attributed to concerns regarding Iranian supply.

Declines:

  • WTI crude oil decreased by 1.6% to US$56.20 per barrel, and Brent crude oil price fell by 0.95% to US$60.13 per barrel, following reports of an agreement for the import of up to US$2 billion worth of Venezuelan crude.
  • WTI crude oil prices decreased by 4.9% to US$62.03 per barrel, and Brent crude oil prices fell by 4.4% to US$66.29 per barrel, attributed to easing US-Iran tensions.
  • WTI crude oil fell by 0.8% to US$60.61 per barrel, and Brent crude oil decreased by 0.5% to US$65.55 per barrel.

Gold Prices

Gold prices experienced significant upward movement, often driven by heightened safe-haven demand, a weakening US dollar, and geopolitical concerns. Softening periods were linked to profit-taking and easing geopolitical tensions.

Increases:

  • The gold futures price saw a 3.75% increase, reaching a record high of US$4,767.2 per ounce. Factors cited included heightened safe-haven demand, a weakening US dollar, and a "sell America" trading trend.
  • Gold futures rose by 2.8% to US$4,449 an ounce, attributed to demand for safe-haven assets following reports of UK strikes in Venezuela.
  • Gold futures prices increased by 0.1% to US$5,308.5 per ounce, with increases linked to safe-haven demand.
  • The gold price rose by 1% to US$5,029 per ounce, driven by demand for safe-haven assets.
  • On Friday night, the gold futures price advanced by 0.9% to US$4,500.9 per ounce, driven by geopolitical concerns and expectations of US interest rate reductions.
  • Over the weekend, gold prices increased, with gold futures briefly surpassing $US5000 per ounce, settling around $US5079.40 per ounce, influenced by a softer US dollar, macro uncertainty, and central bank buying.
  • Gold prices were up 1.8 percent on one day, with silver prices 5.9 percent higher. Gold also traded around $US5,047 an ounce.
  • Gold prices rebounded overnight, with gold futures increasing by 6.65% to US$4,961.4 per ounce, believed by traders to be a reaction to the precious metal being oversold.

Declines:

  • CNBC reported a 0.75% decrease in gold futures prices to US$4,462 per ounce, attributed by some analysts to profit-taking activities.
  • The gold futures price decreased by 0.3% to US$4,601.5 an ounce, after previously reaching a record high driven by increased expectations of US Fed interest rate cuts before easing.
  • Gold futures prices declined by 1.85% to US$4,670 per ounce, occurring after Donald Trump's nomination for the next US Federal Reserve chief.
  • Gold price eased slightly, with gold futures dropping to US$5,006.7 per ounce, as market participants reportedly awaited further information regarding US-Iran relations.

Industrial Metals

London-listed shares of major miners BHP Group Ltd and Rio Tinto Ltd advanced by nearly 2%, attributed to an increase in commodity prices, with copper rising above US$13,000 amid supply concerns. Singapore iron ore futures reached multi-month lows on one occasion.

Company Developments and Analyst Ratings

Telix Pharmaceuticals Ltd (ASX: TLX)

Released an update for FY 2025, with unaudited group revenue approximately US$804 million (A$1.2 billion), consistent with upgraded guidance of US$800 million to US$820 million. Fourth-quarter revenue increased 46% year-over-year to US$208 million. The CEO noted sequential growth in Q4 2025, partly driven by the U.S. launch of Gozellix.

Rio Tinto Ltd (ASX: RIO)

Scheduled to release its fourth-quarter and full-year production update, with consensus estimates including copper production of 863,000 tonnes, iron ore production of 322.756 million tonnes, and aluminium production of 3.22 million tonnes. Later released full-year results, reporting a 9% increase in underlying EBITDA to US$25.36 billion. Underlying earnings remained stable at US$10.87 billion, maintaining total dividends at US$4.02 per share.

The chief executive stated the results demonstrated operational progress, citing an 8% increase in CuEq production driven by the Oyu Tolgoi underground copper mine ramp-up and record Pilbara iron ore production. These results were below consensus estimates.

Rio Tinto shares fell 4.1% after suspending operations at an iron ore mine in Guinea following a worker's death, leading to a 5.0 percent decrease on one day. The deadline for a potential Glencore takeover bid approached, requiring Rio Tinto to submit an offer by a specified date or be restricted for six months.

Premier Investments Ltd (ASX: PMV)

Bell Potter maintained a 'buy' rating but adjusted its price target to $20.00 from $26.50. The assessment suggested the current share price implies minimal earnings for the Smiggle brand. Bell Potter noted limited catalysts for Smiggle, apart from an interim management change, and lowered assumptions. However, views remained that the current share price implies minimum earnings for Smiggle, with potential risk-reward from improvements.
Another update indicated the company expects first-half EBIT of $120 million, 10% below consensus estimates, with Smiggle negatively impacting performance, particularly in the United Kingdom. Peter Alexander brand was valued at $2 billion, compared to the company's total market capitalization of $2.2 billion. The share price was $13.56.

SGH Ltd (ASX: SGH) & BlueScope Steel Ltd (ASX: BSL)

Bell Potter affirmed its 'hold' rating and a $52.00 price target for SGH Ltd, following SGH's takeover offer for BlueScope Steel Ltd. Bell Potter noted SGH was securing a deal for shareholders, acquiring Australia and RoW businesses at cycle-lows, expected to benefit from SGH's capital-backing and operating model. At an offer price of A$30.00/sh, SGH was estimated to be paying A$6.00-9.00/sh for non-NA assets or 8.4-12.6x EV / FY25a EBIT.
BlueScope Steel confirmed receipt of a $30.00 per share takeover offer from a consortium comprising SGH Ltd and US-based Steel Dynamics, currently under evaluation after rejecting three prior proposals. BlueScope Steel experienced a 1.8 percent decrease despite reporting a half-year net profit of $391 million, more than double the prior year.

Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX: NST)

Analysts at Bell Potter maintained a 'buy' rating and a $30.00 price target. The brokerage noted that an 8.6% share price decline and A$3.3 billion market capitalization loss following a recent production downgrade might be an overreaction, assuming temporary production issues normalize in the second half of the year. Northern Star rose 1.8 percent on one day and 0.3 percent on another.

Codan Ltd (ASX: CDA)

Analysts at Bell Potter maintained a 'hold' rating, increasing the price target to $36.70 from $27.80. The assessment suggested Codan shares were trading at fair value (33x EV / EBIT), amidst improving operating momentum and outlook in both business segments. Potential for a FY26e Metal Detection revenue upgrade was noted if positive commentary emerges during the 1H26e result.

Liontown Ltd (ASX: LTR)

Bell Potter retained its 'buy' rating, improving its price target to $2.48 from $1.52, citing stronger-than-expected lithium prices. Bell Potter's updated price outlook indicated Liontown would deleverage from a net debt of $274 million by September 30, 2025, to a net cash position by the end of 2026. EPS changes included +2.3cps (previously -2.3cps) for FY26, a 230% increase for FY27, and a 106% increase for FY28.
The Kathleen Valley lithium project was noted for its strategic scale, long project life, and location within a tier-one mining jurisdiction. Bell Potter later adjusted the price target to $2.42 from $2.48, noting that current lithium price strength could enable Liontown to generate cash for production expansions and shareholder returns, citing project importance, existing offtake contracts, and a strong balance sheet.

Aeris Resources Ltd (ASX: AIS)

Bell Potter maintained a buy rating, with an improved price target of 82 cents, following development consent for its Constellation Project, expected to de-risk its path to production and support mining operations by mid-2026. Bell Potter also noted Aeris Resources could be an acquisition target, citing low valuation multiples. The share price was 62 cents.

Suncorp Group Ltd (ASX: SUN)

Morgan Stanley retained an overweight rating, with a trimmed price target of $22.25. The broker suggested recent share price weakness in late 2025 presented a buying opportunity. Morgan Stanley expressed satisfaction with the business, anticipating material improvement in earnings quality due to reinsurance options, potentially leading to a re-rating in 2026. The share price was $17.41.

Develop Global Ltd (ASX: DVP)

Bell Potter maintained a "buy" rating, increasing its price target to $5.80, noting DVP presents copper-zinc exposure that is undervalued compared with peers.

Atlas Arteria Group (ASX: ALX)

Morgans analysts retained a "hold" rating, adjusting its price target to $4.74. The broker downgraded free cashflow and cash reserves forecast but saw ALX as capable of sustaining its current dividend per share until at least the end of the decade. DCF-based valuation reduced to $4.43/sh, with the 12-month target price declining to $4.74/sh.

BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP)

Morgan Stanley maintained an "overweight" rating and a $56.50 price target, citing positive performance during the second quarter, outperformance in iron ore operations, and copper production exceeding forecasts from the Escondida mine. The share price closed at $48.43. BHP climbed 2 percent on one day but later dropped 1.5 percent due to Singapore iron ore futures reaching multi-month lows.

National Australia Bank Ltd (ASX: NAB)

UBS upgraded shares to a "buy" rating, increasing its price target to $47.00. The broker highlighted NAB's success in business banking leadership and position to benefit from structural business lending growth. UBS anticipated higher potential for a re-rating as NAB shares had underperformed other major banks in 2025. The share price concluded the week at $42.35. NAB dipped 1.1 percent on one day.

Zip Co Ltd (ASX: ZIP)

UBS retained a "buy" rating, adjusting its price target down to $5.20. UBS suggested significant share price weakness created a buying opportunity, partly attributed to an ongoing industry inquiry in the United States. The firm noted potential 10% caps on credit card interest rates, as proposed by President Trump, could lead to tighter credit card lending, potentially increasing consumer reliance on buy now, pay later (BNPL) services. Uncertainty regarding regulatory interpretation of Zip's fees by lawmakers remained. The share price was $3.04.

Pantoro Gold Ltd (ASX: PNR)

Analysts at Bell Potter maintained a 'hold' rating, setting an improved price target of $6.05. Concerns were noted regarding the company's ability to meet its guidance, despite an improved performance in the December quarter. Production and cost run-rates remained outside guidance expectations for the second half of fiscal year 2026.

ResMed Inc. (ASX: RMD)

Scheduled to release its second-quarter financial update on Friday, with consensus estimates projecting 9% revenue growth and a gross margin of 62.1%. Bell Potter later upgraded shares to a 'buy' rating with a target price of $47.73, based on strong Q2 results including double-digit revenue and earnings growth, gross margin expansion, solid cash generation, and improved FY26 guidance for gross margin (62-63%).

CSL Ltd (ASX: CSL)

Bell Potter reaffirmed its 'hold' rating and $195.00 price target, noting that while CSL trades at a significant discount to its historical average and peers (17x PE), this valuation was considered justified due to a low organic growth outlook, earnings growth below peers, and credibility concerns following the Seqirus de-merger pivot and recent long-term guidance downgrades. CSL's share price fell by 6.5% to $152.97 after its results and an announcement regarding a change of CEO. Bell Potter later trimmed its price target to $175.00, noting CSL trades at an underlying PE of 16.5x in FY27, below its historical average but above the global biopharma average.

Pinnacle Investment Management Group Ltd

Released its half-year results, reporting an 11% decrease in net profit after tax, reaching $67.3 million. Consequently, Pinnacle reduced its interim dividend by 12% to 29 cents per share, reflecting lower performance fees.

Goodman Group (ASX: GMG)

Shares received a maintained "buy" rating from Bell Potter analysts, who adjusted the price target slightly to $36.45 from $37.40. The broker suggested the market's reaction might be due to the absence of an earnings upgrade, a feature of past first-half results. Bell Potter expressed confidence in Goodman's expanding development pipeline.

Aurizon Holdings Ltd (ASX: AZJ)

Rose seven percent following the abandonment of plans to sell a stake in its Queensland rail network. Interim dividends also increased by one-third to 12.5c.

A2 Milk Company Ltd (ASX: A2M)

Increased 6.8 percent after raising full-year revenue projections due to an 18 percent rise in first-half revenue. Later increased by 4.3 percent after revising its full-year guidance upwards, following a strong first-half performance including a 19.6 percent rise in underlying profit.

Treasury Wine Estates Ltd (ASX: TWE)

Dipped 5.1 percent after reporting a $649 million loss in the first half and canceling interim dividends. Later, it was the lowest performer in the ASX200 at midday, experiencing a 6.9 percent decline to a two-month low of $4.875, announcing dividend suspension and a statutory loss of $649.4 million, attributed to weak sales in the United States and China.

Ansell Ltd (ASX: ANN)

Gained 3.8 percent after announcing profit results, which were offset by cost-cutting measures addressing US tariff losses.

JB Hi-Fi Ltd (ASX: JBH)

Advanced 7.5 percent, boosted by strong end-of-year sales. An analyst cautioned that future sales growth may moderate in the second half due to expected rate hikes. Reported a 7.3 percent increase in first-half sales and an 8.1 percent rise in earnings, with the CEO stating brands resonate with customers seeking value. Surged almost 5% after interim results were released.

AMP Ltd (ASX: AMP)

Share price decreased by 30% to $1.21 following full-year results showing a 20.8% increase in underlying net profit after tax to $285 million, but an 11.3% decrease in statutory profit to $133 million. The outgoing CEO stated 2025 was important for resolving legacy items and stabilizing the portfolio.

Pro Medicus Ltd (ASX: PME)

Share price dropped by 20% to $134.96 following half-year results indicating a 28.4% increase in revenue to $124.8 million and a 29.7% rise in underlying profit before tax to $90.7 million. These results were reportedly softer than some market expectations. The CEO noted a significant implementation (Trinity Cohort 1) went live late in the period, having limited impact on half-year results.

Temple & Webster Group Ltd (ASX: TPW)

Share price decreased by 28% to $8.20 following half-year results reporting a 19.8% increase in revenue to $375.9 million and a 13% increase in EBITDA to $14.9 million. Management reaffirmed its FY 2026 EBITDA margin guidance of 3% to 5%.

Other Company Movements

  • ANZ: Declined by 2.6% and later 2.1%.
  • Bendigo Bank: Fell by 1.4% following recent results, and later decreased by 2.7% after reporting $256.4 million in half-year cash earnings (3.3% reduction).
  • Commonwealth Bank (CBA): Saw a 0.2% increase and later added 0.5%.
  • Wisetech Global: Up 8% and later 9.5%.
  • GPT and Stockland: Each rose 0.4% after reporting first-half results.
  • Clarity Pharmaceuticals: Gained over 13% after releasing positive results for its prostate cancer therapy.
  • Austral: Rose 15%.
  • Nick Scali: Down 5.5% following its results.
  • Fortescue: Declined 3.7%, later 4.7%, and 4.2%.
  • Xero: Rose by 6.7 percent.
  • Life360: Grew by 6.0 percent.
  • Appen: Increased by 5.0 percent.
  • Harvey Norman: Up 2.2 percent.
  • Eagers Automotive: Up 1.8 percent.
  • Lovisa: Up 2.2 percent.
  • Light & Wonder: Added 8.4 percent.
  • Evolution Mining: Increased 2.8 percent and later lost 1.6 percent.
  • Gold Corporation: Fell 0.1 percent.
  • South32: Rose 2.6 percent.
  • Karoon Energy Ltd and Santos Ltd: Expected to be influenced by oil price movements.
  • Woodside Energy Group Ltd: Expected to be influenced by oil price movements.
  • Ramelius Resources Ltd: Expected to be influenced by gold price movements.

Economic and Sectoral Outlook

Reserve Bank of Australia and Economic Data

The RBA's interest rate decision was a key focus, with market expectations leaning towards a rate hike. Upcoming employment data and US inflation reports also played a significant role in shaping economic forecasts.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) was scheduled to announce its interest rate decision at 2:30 pm AEDT on one day. Markets were anticipating a 0.25 percentage point increase in the cash rate, which would mark the first rate hike in over two years. The Australian dollar was trading at US69.55 cents at 10:39 am AEDT on that day, and later at 70.82 US cents. Upcoming economic data included RBA minutes and employment data.

Expectations for January employment data suggested a softer print, with around 10,000 jobs added and the unemployment rate possibly ticking up to 4.3 percent. Markets predicted a 91 percent chance of a cash rate hold next month. A cooler-than-anticipated US inflation report over the weekend contributed to expectations of three interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2026, revising previous forecasts of two cuts.

Overall Earnings Outlook

Earnings growth across the ASX 200 was projected to increase by almost 13% for the full financial year, a change from initial forecasts of 3%. This revised outlook followed half-year results, where aggregate company earnings largely outperformed expectations, with fewer major disappointments. This trend, supported by positive outlook commentary, led investment banks to revise full-year estimates upwards.

Upward momentum in ASX 200 earnings revisions was observed to be at its highest since mid-2022, with a two-to-one ratio of companies exceeding profit expectations to those missing them.

The Australian share market was experiencing growth driven by a rebound in company earnings, following three years of declines post-COVID. These results suggested strength in Australian consumer and business spending and investment during the six months to December 2025. This outlook was subject to the performance of the US market, which could be impacted by former President Donald Trump's response to a US Supreme Court decision regarding tariffs.

Sectoral Performance

Sectoral performance was diverse, with technology and healthcare leading gains, while energy and materials experienced declines on certain days. Banks and miners provided mixed contributions to the overall market.

  • Positive Territory: Ten out of eleven industry sectors were in positive territory on one Monday.
  • Energy: The only sector in decline on that Monday, following an overnight slump in oil prices.
  • Materials: Primary laggards for one day, but later saw declines alongside financials and utilities on another occasion.
  • Technology: Recorded the largest increase, climbing 4.7 percent, following previous concerns regarding the impact of artificial intelligence on business models. Later gained 5.6 percent.
  • Consumer Discretionary: Advanced by 2.2 percent.
  • Banks and Major Mining Companies: Offset gains in other sectors on one day. Major Australian banks were significant contributors to strong earnings performance, driven by increased credit growth, improved margins, and sustained low levels of bad debts. The mining sector also showed strength, with BHP benefiting from higher iron ore and copper prices.
  • Healthcare: Led the overall market's positive performance and was the strongest performer, with an approximate 2% increase.
  • Gold Miners: Showed strength as the spot price for gold moved above $US 5,000/ounce.
  • Retailers: Observed increased demand, with strong results from larger players like Wesfarmers and JB Hi-Fi. Discretionary retail may face pressure due to interest rate increases.
  • Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs): Performed positively, driven by increased property valuations.
  • Defensive Stocks: Utilities (Telstra) also performed well.
  • Upcoming Scrutiny: Coles and Woolworths were scheduled to report half-year earnings and were expected to draw scrutiny due to ongoing legal action from the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission regarding alleged misleading discount practices.