2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook: Below-Average Predicted, But Officials Warn of High Risk

Forecasters predict 8 to 14 named storms this season, but warm ocean waters and a developing El Niño create a volatile mix.

The Forecast

The National Hurricane Center's official 2026 Atlantic hurricane season forecast (June 1 – November 30) predicts 8 to 14 named storms, below the historical average of 14.

Of those:

• 3 to 6 are expected to become hurricanes
• 1 to 3 are expected to become major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher)

A strong El Niño is expected to develop mid-season, which typically suppresses Atlantic hurricane activity. However, abnormally warm sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico increase the likelihood of intense hurricanes.

Climate change is contributing to warmer oceans and a warmer atmosphere, which can intensify storms and increase rainfall.

A Cautionary Note on Below-Average Seasons

"Even though we're expecting a below-average season in the Atlantic, it's very important to understand that it only takes one. We have had major hurricanes make landfall during below-average seasons." — Neil Jacobs, NOAA Administrator

In 2024, Hurricane Helene caused catastrophic flooding in Appalachia after weakening below hurricane strength. In 2021, Hurricane Ida caused deadly flash flooding in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast.

The danger doesn't end at the coastline. As National Weather Service Director Ken Graham emphasized:

"The impacts don't stop at the coast. The impacts go way inland. And we've seen that over and over and over again, including most of the fatalities end up being inland as well."

Prepare Now, Not Later

Graham also urged early preparation:

"After a storm is not the time to read how to use your chainsaw for the first time."

Robert Ashe, Acting FEMA Administrator for the Southeast region, stressed the importance of early preparation, including:

• Helping elderly family members and neighbors
• Reviewing evacuation plans
• Understanding local flood risks

FEMA's Status: Uncertainty Amid Preparedness

FEMA has faced significant turbulence, including job cuts, funding uncertainty, and threats of elimination from the Trump administration.

• Job cuts stopped in May
• The administration nominated Cameron Hamilton (formerly fired for supporting the agency's existence)
• A longtime FEMA employee was installed as deputy
• FEMA recently released hundreds of millions of dollars in long-delayed disaster recovery and preparedness funding

It remains unclear how the past year's turmoil will affect FEMA's hurricane response readiness. The agency has stated it is "fully prepared for the 2026 hurricane season."

Pacific Outlook

Federal forecasters expect an above-average hurricane season in the central and eastern Pacific.