Anti-government protests have spread across numerous provinces in Iran since late December, initially sparked by currency devaluation and economic dissatisfaction. These demonstrations have evolved to include anti-state sentiment, with reports of significant gatherings in over 50 towns and cities, including locations historically supportive of the government. Security forces have reportedly increased their use of force, while official statements have warned against "saboteurs" and linked the unrest to external designs. Conflicting reports exist regarding casualty figures, and authorities have been accused of attempting to control the narrative surrounding deceased protesters.
Overview of Protests
Since December 28, anti-government protests have been reported in at least 17 of Iran's 31 provinces, with additional reports of demonstrations in 11 other provinces. The protests began following a sharp devaluation of the Iranian currency against major foreign currencies in the capital, Tehran. Verified video footage from the past ten days documents demonstrations and gatherings in over 50 towns and cities nationwide, including Qom and Mashhad, which have historically been considered supportive of the Islamic Republic. Some observers have described these gatherings as a significant display of opposition. Rallies were observed in Tehran and Mashhad, where BBC Persian-verified footage showed peaceful demonstrations without intervention from security forces in those specific instances.
Causes and Slogans
The demonstrations initially stemmed from public dissatisfaction with the government's economic management, which has been impacted by international sanctions, and allegations of widespread corruption. The protests have more recently acquired an anti-state character, with participants in various locations chanting slogans against Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and the clerical establishment established after the 1979 Islamic Revolution.
Verified videos have also shown chants supporting Reza Pahlavi, the exiled son of the former Shah of Iran, and the pre-1979 Pahlavi dynasty. On December 30, at the University of Tehran, some protesters reportedly chanted "death to the dictator." In Iranshahr, Sistan and Baluchestan province, protesters were reported to have set fire to a statue depicting Khamenei and Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, the leader of the 1979 revolution. In Mashhad, participants reportedly voiced demands for the removal of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and the reinstatement of Reza Pahlavi.
Government Response and Reported Fatalities
Iranian authorities have historically employed force in response to unrest. During the 2022 protests, prompted by the death in custody of Mahsa Amini, human rights groups reported over 550 fatalities attributed to security forces. While the initial response from police and security forces to the current protests appeared restrained, verified footage indicates an increased use of force since Saturday, coinciding with Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's public statement that "rioters must be put in their place."
Following these remarks, Iran's judiciary chief, Gholamhossein Mohseni Ejei, stated that authorities would "listen to protesters and critics who legitimately and rightly have concerns about their livelihood and social and economic welfare," but also vowed to "deal firmly with those who seek to exploit the situation, incite riots, and undermine the security of the country and the people." The Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) has issued warnings against street gatherings in Lorestan province.
Reports on fatalities vary:
- BBC Persian has confirmed the identities of at least 11 individuals reported deceased since December 28 through a combination of verified funeral videos and interviews with family members.
- The foreign-based human rights organization HRANA has reported a total of 35 fatalities during the unrest, including two individuals associated with security forces.
- A Norway-based monitoring group, Iran Human Rights, reported at least 45 protesters killed and over 2,000 arrests between December 28 and January 8. These figures are expected to increase.
- An unverified video circulated online Thursday, reportedly from Fardis near Karaj, west of Tehran, appeared to show at least seven bodies in an underground parking area, with the narrator in the footage claiming the individuals were killed by live fire.
Incidents of Confrontation
Several incidents of confrontation have been reported:
- On Saturday in Malekshahi, Ilam province, a demonstration on Commandery Boulevard, an area containing several state institutions, preceded apparent gunfire. Human rights groups reported four fatalities, while semi-official Mehr and Tasnim news agencies reported three. Subsequent footage showed individuals being transported to a hospital.
- Later on Saturday, multiple verified videos from nearby Ilam city depicted security forces firing shots towards Imam Khomeini Hospital. Iran's president has initiated an investigation into this event.
- In Qom, a video showed officers on motorbikes being struck with rocks. Another clip depicted a security officer on a motorbike being set ablaze by a demonstrator after security forces had reportedly detained and assaulted a protester.
- In Azna, demonstrators reportedly started a fire outside a police station after security forces had earlier fired upon protesters. BBC Persian has identified at least three demonstrators killed in Azna through funeral footage verification and family interviews.
- Separate reports on Wednesday indicated instances of violent clashes in various other cities.
Official Statements and Control of Narrative
Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei addressed the nation on Friday, referring to demonstrators as “saboteurs” and stating there would be no retreat from the government's position. Following this, the Secretariat of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council warned that security forces and the judiciary would show “no leniency toward saboteurs.” Similar statements from the national police force and the Revolutionary Guards’ intelligence arm described the protests as a “joint design” by Israel and the United States aimed at undermining Iran’s security, vowing retaliation.
Iranian authorities have reportedly attempted to portray deceased protesters as government supporters or victims of protester violence, a pattern observed in previous periods of unrest. In one instance, Amir-Hessam Khodayari, 22, who died after being wounded by security forces, was identified by the Revolutionary Guards and state media as a Basij member (pro-government militia). However, Khodayari's family contradicted this claim, with his father publicly stating his son was a protester. Family members and activists reported facing pressure, including threats to withhold his body and offers of financial compensation, to accept the official narrative. Another case involved Shayan Asadollahi, 28, killed in Azna. Authorities reportedly withheld his body for five days, pressuring his family to state he was a Basij member or died in a traffic accident. He was subsequently buried in a remote village.
Verification of these numbers and events has become difficult due to reduced access to images and firsthand accounts from within Iran. Further accounts are anticipated to emerge if full internet access is restored.
Expert Commentary
Professor Sina Azodi, Director of the Middle East Studies Program at George Washington University, stated that unrest in cities like Qom and Mashhad indicates that the government's "base of support is also suffering under the economic hardship." Peyman Jafari, an assistant professor of international relations at the College of William and Mary, suggested that "escalating repression is likely to deepen popular resentment toward the political system while risking fatigue and demoralisation within the police and security forces."
Holly Dagres, a senior fellow at the Washington Institute, commented that the government appears to have incorporated few lessons from previous protests, noting that "While the catalysts differ… the problems remain the same: systemic mismanagement, corruption, and repression," and that "the countless anti-regime chants make clear that many Iranians are calling for the ouster of the Islamic Republic." Despite the scale of the demonstrations, most experts consulted by the BBC did not currently view them as an existential threat to the state. Professor Azodi observed that "Security forces are loyal – there are no defections at this point and law enforcement forces are carrying out the orders," and that "while the protests are widespread we are not seeing a clear strategy [or] attempt by the protesters to bring down the Islamic Republic."