A study published in Science found that the abrupt dismantling of USAID led to an increase in overall conflict in African regions that had received aid, compared to those that had not.
"The sudden removal eliminates incentives while leaving resources worth fighting over, creating chaos."
Key Findings
- Researchers analyzed USAID funds disbursed at the state or provincial level before the agency's termination, overlaying this with conflict data from the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data project.
- The study covered ten months before and after early 2025.
- Results showed that areas with more prior assistance experienced more conflict after aid was withdrawn.
- The increase in conflict included armed clashes, protests, riots, and violence against civilians.
- One example cited is protests at the Kakuma refugee camp in Kenya in July 2025, where food distribution cuts led to unrest and one death.
Explanations
Austin Wright, a data scientist at the University of Chicago and co-author, explained that aid can reduce violence by providing livelihoods, but its sudden removal eliminates those incentives while leaving resources worth fighting over, creating chaos.
The study found exceptions in regions with strong institutional constraints on executive power, such as Nigeria and South Africa, which helped mitigate the impact.
Caveats
- Statistician Andy Solow raised technical concerns about the analysis, such as conflict contagion, but found the basic result convincing.
- The authors note that increased violence may be self-reinforcing, making it difficult to reverse the damage even if aid were restored.