Global Pandemic Preparedness Declining, Warns Independent Report

A new report from the Global Preparedness Monitoring Board (GPMB) warns that the world is not significantly safer from pandemics than before COVID-19, citing rising outbreak frequency, declining trust, and stalled reforms.

"The world is not significantly safer than before the COVID-19 pandemic."

The GPMB, an independent body established in 2018 by the World Health Organization (WHO) and the World Bank, released its findings on Monday. Reforms have not kept pace with rising risks, and infectious disease outbreaks are becoming both more frequent and more damaging.

Key Findings of the GPMB Report

The report highlights several critical factors driving increased outbreak risk:

• Increasing Frequency of Outbreaks: In 2024, the WHO detected nearly twice as many health emergencies as in 2015.
• Worsening Impacts: Outbreaks are causing wider health, economic, political, and social damage, with reduced capacity for recovery.
• Declining Trust: Trust in public institutions and international cooperation has declined since the COVID-19 pandemic.
• Stalled Progress: Equitable access to diagnostics, vaccines, and therapeutics is moving backward. Advanced tools like mRNA vaccines and genomic sequencing are being undermined by misinformation, underfunding, and geopolitical tensions.

Exacerbating Factors

Climate change, armed conflict, rapid global movement, political fragmentation, and government funding cuts are all contributing to the increased risk.

Current Outbreak: Ebola in the Democratic Republic of the Congo

The report arrives amid an active Ebola outbreak caused by the Bundibugyo virus in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC).

"Ebola is a very serious disease, but it is one that we know how to control."
– Dr. Mohamed Janabi, WHO

Case Counts and Spread

• As of May 16, health authorities reported 8 laboratory-confirmed cases, 246 suspected cases, and 80 suspected deaths in Ituri province, eastern DRC.
• Other sources report the outbreak has killed at least 131 people and infected over 500. No approved therapy or vaccine exists for the Bundibugyo virus.
• Confirmed cases include the wife of a man who died in Bunia, Ituri, and another individual who traveled from Bunia to Beni, North Kivu.
• Unconfirmed reports from May 17 indicated a positive test in Goma, North Kivu. Cases have also been confirmed in Kinshasa, DRC, and in Uganda, where two infected individuals are in intensive care in Kampala.

WHO Response and Concerns

• The WHO is supporting the response with 42 health professionals and supplies.
• The agency has warned that the outbreak may be larger than detected, citing unexplained deaths, a high positivity rate, and limited understanding of transmission.
• At least four healthcare worker deaths have raised concerns about infection prevention measures.

Compounding Factors

The WHO notes that ongoing insecurity, a humanitarian crisis, high population mobility, the urban nature of hotspots, and informal healthcare networks are compounding the risk of spread. The WHO declared the outbreak a global health emergency on Sunday.

Additional Outbreaks Reported

The GPMB report also coincides with other notable disease events:

• Hantavirus Outbreak: A hantavirus outbreak linked to a cruise ship has killed three people.
• Diphtheria in Australia: Australia is experiencing one of its worst diphtheria outbreaks since records began, with over 220 cases reported this year, including the first diphtheria-related death in nearly a decade.

Expert Commentary and National Perspectives

Global Cooperation

Professor Sharon Lewin of the Doherty Institute, University of Melbourne, stated the report underscores the need for global cooperation and equitable access. She said Australia cannot view pandemic preparedness through a purely national lens and should contribute through organizations like the Global Fund and WHO.

Canada's Preparedness

Despite the report's grim findings, some experts note that Canada has improved readiness since 2020 through bolstered biomedical research, expanded surveillance, and stockpile planning. However, Angela Rasmussen, a virologist at the University of Saskatchewan, pointed out that social and structural vulnerabilities remain and that discussion often fails to translate into concrete action.

"Social and structural vulnerabilities remain, and discussion often fails to translate into concrete action."
– Angela Rasmussen, University of Saskatchewan

She also warned that risks are exacerbated by the U.S. withdrawal from the WHO and funding cuts, and noted that Canada's loss of measles elimination status signals a rejection of proven public health measures.

Expert Statements

• Joy Phumaphi, GPMB co-chair, expressed concern that the global community is not ready for the next pandemic.
• Peter Hotez, professor at Baylor College of Medicine, described the recent hantavirus outbreaks as a "wake-up call" and linked disinformation to hindered public health responses.

GPMB Recommendations and Future Outlook

The GPMB report includes three main recommendations:

1. Strengthen political commitment for global pandemic response.
2. Invest in community health worker armies.
3. Address disinformation and rebuild trust in public health authorities.

The board stated that national leadership will be tested as governments finalize the WHO Pandemic Agreement and work on a UN political declaration on pandemic prevention, preparedness, and response. It also noted that artificial intelligence (AI) could improve preparedness and monitor threats, but without governance, it may reduce health security and widen access gaps.