A Nation's Reading Decline: A Crisis Years in the Making
"The pandemic was the mudslide that had followed seven years of steady erosion in achievement."
— Thomas Kane, Harvard
A national analysis of student test scores from grades 3-8 across 38 states by researchers at Harvard, Stanford, and Dartmouth reveals a troubling trend: reading achievement has been declining since 2013, well before the COVID-19 pandemic. Between 2022 and 2025, only five states and the District of Columbia showed meaningful improvement in reading. Nationally, students remain nearly half a grade level behind pre-pandemic reading benchmarks.
In contrast, math scores improved in almost every state during the same period, and student absenteeism declined in most states.
Historical Context and National Trends
According to the National Assessment of Educational Progress, reading test scores have been declining for 8th graders since 2013 and for 4th graders since 2015. Researchers have identified this as a pre-existing trend, with the pandemic worsening the decline. The report, known as the Education Scorecard, covers over 5,000 school districts.
Overall, math and reading scores rose steadily from 1990 to 2013, after which the declines began—a period one researcher called "one of the most important social policy successes."
Post-Pandemic Recovery (2022-2025) Shows a Divergence
Math:
- Most states demonstrated meaningful improvement.
- The states that did not show improvement: Georgia, Idaho, Wyoming, Nebraska, and Iowa.
Reading:
- Only D.C., Louisiana, Maryland, Tennessee, Kentucky, and Indiana showed growth.
- Most other states stagnated or declined, including Florida, Arizona, and Nebraska.
States and Districts Bucking the Trend
Several states and individual districts have broken from the national pattern by implementing specific instructional reforms.
State-Level Successes
- Louisiana, Maryland, Tennessee, Kentucky, and Indiana achieved reading score growth. These states have adopted phonics-based instruction, commonly referred to as the "science of reading."
- Alabama and Louisiana are the only states where math scores in 2025 exceeded pre-pandemic levels.
- Louisiana is the only state that surpassed its pre-pandemic reading average and has returned to 2019 performance levels in both subjects.
- No state has returned to its 2013 performance levels.
District-Level Successes
Modesto City Schools (California): Students gained an estimated 13 weeks of reading learning and 18 weeks of math learning relative to demographically similar districts.
The district revamped its reading instruction during the pandemic and established an English learner support department, reporting consistent gains in both subjects over several years.
Detroit Public Schools Community District (Michigan): Daily absences dropped from 7-8 to 1-2 per class.
A 2016 lawsuit settlement of over $94 million funded improved school conditions and attendance efforts. At Munger Elementary-Middle School, an attendance agent contacts absent students. Student test scores grew faster than in similar urban districts in Michigan.
Baltimore City Public Schools (Maryland): "We were ferocious about implementing phonics-based instruction."
— Sonja Brookins Santelises, CEO
Under Santelises, the district adopted science-of-reading reforms before the pandemic. Baltimore lost less ground in reading than comparable districts during the pandemic, and after 2022, reading scores rose toward 2017 levels.
What Worked: Common Strategies Among Improvers
Schools that improved reading outcomes generally shared several strategies:
- Shifting to phonics-based instruction (the "science of reading")
- Providing extra support for struggling readers
- Requiring dyslexia screening
- Hiring coaches for reading instruction and funding teacher training (e.g., the LETRS phonics program in Modesto)
- Standardized instruction and regular testing, as seen with Alabama's 2022 Numeracy Act
However, researchers caution that "science of reading" reforms did not guarantee success. States like Florida, Arizona, and Nebraska saw test scores fall despite implementing some changes.
Possible Contributing Factors
Researchers have identified several potential triggers for the post-2013 decline:
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Reduced test-based accountability: After 2013, many states received waivers from the No Child Left Behind Act, reducing pressure on schools to improve performance.
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Increased social media use: The report notes that heavy social media users (7+ hours per day) score lower, and the achievement gap has widened globally alongside the rise in social media.
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Reduced time spent reading for pleasure.
Researcher Perspectives
Thomas Kane (Harvard): "Without federal pandemic relief, high-poverty districts would have seen no recovery." He attributed the "learning recession" to reduced test-based accountability and the impact of social media.
Sean Reardon (Stanford): Characterized the 1990-2013 progress as "one of the most important social policy successes." He noted that "the decline is not inevitable" and that schools can improve again.
Regional Trends and Limitations
The analysis indicates that Southern states have led education reforms, adopting research-based teaching methods and investing in teacher training.
Researchers also observed a "U-shaped recovery" pattern: highest- and lowest-poverty districts saw similar math gains, while middle-income districts improved the least. This is attributed to federal COVID relief disproportionately aiding high-poverty districts.
Important caveats:
- The report excludes several states (e.g., Illinois, New York, Colorado) due to assessment changes or high opt-out rates.
- Researchers caution that correlations between reforms and outcomes may not be causal.
- Despite gains in some areas, overall scores remain below grade level in many districts.