A new working paper by economists Chloe East and Elizabeth Cox analyzes the labor market impacts of increased immigration enforcement under the second Trump administration. The study covers the first nine months of 2025 and uses data from the Deportation Data Project and U.S. Census Bureau.
Key Findings
Increased ICE activity did not improve employment or wages for U.S.-born workers. The study found no net benefit to native-born workers from the enforcement surge.
Employment among likely undocumented workers fell by 4%. This was driven by a "chilling effect" as individuals avoided economic activities to reduce risk of arrest.
U.S.-born workers in affected sectors also saw reduced employment. Men with at most a high school education in industries reliant on undocumented labor were hit hardest. For every six fewer undocumented workers in a local labor market, one fewer U.S.-born worker was employed.
The authors argue that immigrants and native-born workers often complement rather than substitute each other. Reduced immigrant labor in construction and other sectors led to lower overall production and hiring.
Enforcement Data
ICE arrests more than quadrupled in 2025 compared to previous years. Key metrics include:
- Street arrests increased elevenfold.
- Arrests of noncitizens without criminal convictions rose eightfold.
- Enforcement became more indiscriminate and widespread across the interior of the country.
Department of Homeland Security Response
"Let's be clear, if there was any correlation between rampant illegal immigration and a good economy, Biden would have had a booming economy. Removing these criminals from the streets makes communities safer for business owners and customers." — DHS Spokesperson
The study is a working paper and has not yet been peer-reviewed. It aligns with prior research on mass deportations under previous administrations.