Karl Rove on Fox News: Redistricting Impact on 2022 Midterms
Gain Projections
During a Fox News segment with Trey Gowdy on September 11, 2022, Karl Rove analyzed the impact of redistricting on the 2022 midterm elections. Republicans may gain 8–12 seats through redistricting in states like Texas, Ohio, Louisiana, and Alabama, while Democrats could gain 5–6 seats in California and Utah, resulting in a net gain of 3–6 seats for Republicans.
House Majority at Risk
Rove stated that this net gain may not be enough to maintain the House majority, given President Joe Biden's approval rating and the "normal malaise" in the country.
Potential Backfire
Rove also noted that splitting Democratic-leaning urban and Black-majority areas into multiple Republican districts could backfire, making those seats more vulnerable.