The Battle Ahead: Maher and Martin on Gerrymandering and 2026
Bill Maher warns Democrats are "losing" the gerrymandering war, while Politico’s Jonathan Martin argues GOP overreach could spark a backlash.
On his show "Real Time," comedian Bill Maher expressed concern that Democrats are "losing" the gerrymandering battle ahead of the 2026 midterm elections. He highlighted a troubling scenario for his party: Republicans could retain control of the U.S. House despite President Donald Trump's low poll numbers.
Politico's Jonathan Martin offered a counterpoint, arguing that aggressive Republican gerrymandering could backfire. He pointed to recent primaries in Indiana as a key example.
"In Indiana, at least five of eight state legislature primary candidates who had drawn Trump's ire lost their races," Martin noted. He contended that the combination of Trump's intimidation campaign and the Supreme Court's ruling on majority-minority districts might encourage the GOP to pursue even more seats. However, he warned this aggressive strategy could create competitive races for Republicans and energize Democratic voters.
Shifting Coalitions and Shaky Ground
Martin acknowledged that Trump's 2024 coalition brought new voters to the GOP, including younger voters and racial minorities. But he said Trump's subsequent actions and unpopularity have already undermined those gains.
Looking ahead to 2026, Martin predicted significant headwinds for the GOP. He cited three key factors:
- Trump's Unpopularity: The president's approval ratings remain a drag on the party.
- Rising Gas Prices: Economic pressure is likely to turn voters against the incumbent party.
- Historical Midterm Trends: The party in power typically loses seats in midterm elections.
"Due to Trump's unpopularity, rising gas prices, and historical midterm trends, the 2026 elections are likely to be challenging for Republicans."
— Jonathan Martin, Politico
In summary, while Maher sees a structural advantage for the GOP through gerrymandering, Martin warns that overreach—combined with Trump's political baggage—could turn that advantage into a liability, creating a highly competitive electoral landscape in 2026.