2026 NFL Draft Preview: Final Projections & Analysis

The 2026 NFL Draft begins Thursday, April 23, in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. The Las Vegas Raiders are widely expected to select Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza with the first overall pick.

Top of the Draft: Expected Selections & Key Storylines

Pick 1: Las Vegas Raiders

The Raiders are expected to select quarterback Fernando Mendoza from Indiana. Mendoza won the Heisman Trophy in 2025 and led Indiana to a national championship. He passed for 3,535 yards, 41 touchdowns, and six interceptions in his lone season at Indiana. The Raiders signed veteran Kirk Cousins in the offseason to serve as a bridge starter.

Picks 2–5: Jets, Cardinals, Titans, Giants

• Pick 2, New York Jets: The Jets are deciding between edge rushers David Bailey (Texas Tech) and Arvell Reese (Ohio State). Reports indicate Reese is the current frontrunner. Bailey recorded 14.5 sacks in 2025.
• Pick 3, Arizona Cardinals: The Cardinals are known to be seeking a trade partner. If they select, they are projected to choose an edge rusher or offensive tackle.
• Pick 4, Tennessee Titans: The Titans are also open to trading. Running back Jeremiyah Love (Notre Dame) is a potential top-five selection. Love rushed for 1,372 yards and 18 touchdowns in 2025.
• Pick 5, New York Giants: The Giants hold two top-10 picks (No. 5 and No. 10). Projections for pick 5 include linebacker Sonny Styles (Ohio State), wide receiver Carnell Tate (Ohio State), running back Jeremiyah Love, or safety Caleb Downs (Ohio State).

FanDuel Betting Odds for Pick No. 5

FanDuel has updated its betting odds for the fifth overall pick, currently held by the New York Giants. The odds reflect changes in the perceived likelihood of various players being selected at that position.

Ohio State linebacker Sonny Styles remains the betting favorite at +175.

• Miami offensive tackle Francis Mauigoa's odds shortened significantly, moving from +1000 to +440.
• LSU cornerback Mansoor Delane and Utah offensive tackle Spencer Fano are new entrants with odds of +2000.
• A change in the betting favorite for the second overall pick — from Ohio State edge rusher Arvell Reese to Texas Tech edge rusher David Bailey — is cited as a factor influencing the odds for the Giants' pick.

Projected Seven-Round Mock Draft with Trade Scenario

A seven-round mock draft has published, projecting all 257 selections and one first-round trade. The Dallas Cowboys are projected to trade picks 12, 20, and a 2027 fourth-round pick to the Cleveland Browns for picks 6 and 39.

Eight Potential Value Selections for the 2026 NFL Draft

A Sports Illustrated analyst identified eight potential prospects based on conversations with NFL coaches. The analysis references players who may be selected in various rounds.

NFL Scouts and Executives Assess Prospects

Multiple NFL scouts and executives provided assessments of prospects for the 2026 NFL Draft.

Evaluations of Top Quarterback Prospects

• Fernando Mendoza (Indiana): Considered the likely No. 1 overall pick. Some scouts have raised concerns about his arm strength, deep-ball accuracy, and footwork. One scout praised his toughness and anticipation on timing routes but expressed uncertainty about how his personality would fit in an NFL locker room.
• Ty Simpson (Alabama): Being discussed as a potential first-round pick. Some personnel evaluators question his readiness, citing his size (6-foot-1, 211 pounds) and limited college starts (15). An assistant general manager stated that quarterbacks can be "overdrafted" due to positional importance.
• Drew Allar (Penn State): Opinions are divided. One scout suggested Allar has Day 2 draft talent due to his size (6-5, 228) and arm strength. Analyst Rob Rang stated Allar is "overrated" because his physical traits have not translated to consistent, instinctive playmaking.
• Cole Payton (North Dakota State): Described by scouts as a "project" due to his FCS background, but with upside. An assistant general manager stated that if Payton had played at an FBS school, he would be rated higher than Ty Simpson.

One scout praised Mendoza's toughness and anticipation but expressed uncertainty about his personality fit in an NFL locker room.

Prospects Viewed as Underrated

• Jordyn Tyson (WR, Arizona State): One scout stated Tyson "might be the best receiver in this draft" when healthy.
• Akheem Mesidor (Edge, Miami): A scout acknowledged concerns about his size (6-3, 259), age (25), and injury history, but said "he can play," suggesting his on-field performance is close to other top edge rusher prospects.
• Bryce Lance (WR, North Dakota State): Scouts noted his size (6-3, 204), combine testing (4.34-second 40-yard dash), and production (21.2 yards per reception in 2025).
• Jonah Coleman (RB, Washington): Analyst Rob Rang compared him to Maurice Jones-Drew, citing his running style and ball security.
• Gabe Jacas (Edge, Illinois): Rang described Jacas as a "safe" prospect who projects as a steady, long-term NFL starter.

Prospects Viewed as Overrated

• Monroe Freeling (OT, Georgia): Two scouts stated Freeling is not a top-10 pick, citing inconsistent mechanics on film despite good size and athleticism.
• Emmanuel McNeil-Warren (S, Toledo): Scouts expressed concerns about his tackling technique and coverage speed, suggesting he is not a first-round talent.
• Caleb Lomu (OT, Utah): Analyst Rob Rang stated Lomu lacks the physicality to start immediately at left tackle and needs to get stronger.

Draft Context

• The first round is scheduled to begin at 8 p.m. ET on April 23.
• Five teams hold two first-round selections: the New York Jets, Cleveland Browns, Kansas City Chiefs, Miami Dolphins, and Dallas Cowboys.
• NFL Network's Tom Pelissero reported that teams have been active in trade discussions, particularly in the top five, the mid-first round, and late in the first round.
• The 2027 NFL Draft is scheduled to take place in Washington D.C.