American Airlines Lowers 2026 Forecast Amid Fuel Price Volatility

Key Financial Update

American Airlines slashed its 2026 earnings forecast on Thursday, citing volatile jet fuel prices in the wake of U.S.-Israel attacks on Iran.

The airline now projects an adjusted per-share loss of 40 cents to earnings of $1.10—a sharp downward revision from its January forecast of $1.70 to $2.70 per share.

First-Quarter Results Beat Expectations

Despite the lowered outlook, the airline's first-quarter performance surpassed analyst estimates. The adjusted loss of 40 cents per share came in better than the expected loss of 47 cents. Revenue reached $13.91 billion, exceeding the $13.79 billion forecast.

Other key Q1 figures:

• Net loss narrowed to $382 million (58 cents per share), improving from $473 million (72 cents) a year earlier
• Revenue rose 10.8% year-over-year to $13.91 billion

Fuel Costs Weigh on Outlook

"Fuel is typically the second-largest expense after labor for airlines," making price volatility a significant concern for the industry.

The company pointed to unstable jet fuel prices resulting from the ongoing conflict as a primary factor behind the forecast reduction. In response to cost pressures, carriers across the industry are scaling back capacity growth—a move that can help control expenses but also has the potential to raise airfares.

CEO Signals Flexible Approach

CEO Robert Isom stated that the company stands ready to adjust its flight schedule if necessary to maintain the right balance between supply and demand. This forecast cut follows similar moves by other airlines.