2026 NFL Draft Quarterback Class Receives Low Evaluation Score
According to a long-running statistical formula, the 2026 quarterback draft class has the lowest average score since 2018.
An analyst has published quarterback evaluations for the 2026 NFL Draft class using a statistical formula developed over 15 years. The formula assesses college quarterbacks' performance in three key situations: against top-50 defenses, on third and fourth downs, and in the red zone.
The analyst uses percentiles rather than raw averages to account for improvements in college quarterback play over time. The formula does not include data from FCS-level players.
Formula Results and Historical Context
- Fernando Mendoza of Indiana received the highest score in the 2026 class at 8.61% above the class average. His score ranks eighth among 181 quarterbacks tracked over the 15-year history of the formula.
- Carson Beck received the second-highest score at 2.02% above average, ranking 59th all-time.
- Sawyer Robertson received a score of -4.45% below the class average.
The analyst states that players with negative scores historically have lower success rates in the NFL, though exceptions like Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson exist.
Analyst's Notes on Specific Prospects
Fernando Mendoza performed significantly better than other prospects in the class.
Regarding Carson Beck, the analyst states he believes Beck will have the second-best career in this class.
- Diego Pavia scored well but his height of 5-foot-10 may affect his draft position.
- Taylen Green, despite a negative score, could be selected due to his athletic measurements.
- Drew Allar's production at Penn State did not match his physical measurements.
Final 2026 Class Ranking
The analyst published the following final quarterback ranking for the 2026 class:
- Fernando Mendoza
- Carson Beck
- Taylen Green
- Ty Simpson
- Garrett Nussmeier