Analysis: US-Israel-Iran Ceasefire Likely to Lead to a Frozen Conflict
A ceasefire is currently in place between the United States, Israel, and Iran. However, negotiations aimed at resolving the underlying issues have made little progress. A recent analysis suggests the conflict is likely to evolve into a frozen conflict, defined as an unresolved war that continues at a low level below full-scale combat.
The analysis suggests the current ceasefire is more likely to become a permanent, unstable stalemate than a step toward lasting peace.
Reasons for a Frozen Conflict
The analysis cites three primary reasons for this assessment:
1. A Ceasefire-as-Endpoint Approach
The US administration's approach to foreign policy has been described as treating ceasefires as endpoints rather than pauses for negotiation. This approach may reduce immediate hostilities but does not create momentum for resolving core disputes.
2. The Nature of Asymmetric Warfare
The war is described as asymmetric, with Iran using tactics like targeting infrastructure and disrupting shipping to counter US and Israeli military strength. Research indicates that asymmetric wars are often protracted and more likely to end in frozen conflicts, as neither side can achieve a decisive victory.
3. Unresolved Complex Issues
Fundamental underlying issues, such as Iran's nuclear program, remain unresolved. Previous negotiations on this issue were lengthy and complex, and a quick resolution under the current circumstances is considered unlikely.
Historical Context and Regional Implications
The analysis draws parallels to other long-standing frozen conflicts, including the situation in eastern Ukraine between 2014 and 2022, the Korean Peninsula armistice in place since 1953, and the enduring India-Pakistan conflict.
A frozen conflict in the Middle East could lead to long-term regional instability. Potential consequences include regional arms races and periodic, dangerous flare-ups of violence, particularly around critical chokepoints like the Strait of Hormuz.
The situation in Gaza is cited as a current, parallel example where a ceasefire is in place but complex issues of governance, security, and disarmament remain unresolved, leading to continued cycles of violence.