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Conflict Over Strait of Hormuz Continues Amid Competing Blockades and Seizures

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Crisis in the Strait of Hormuz: A Timeline of Conflict and Consequences

The Strait of Hormuz, a vital waterway for global oil and gas transit, remains at the center of a prolonged standoff between the United States and Iran.

Since the onset of military conflict on February 28, 2025, the strait has seen significant reductions in maritime traffic, the imposition of competing blockades, and several incidents involving the interdiction and seizure of vessels. The situation is further complicated by an ongoing ceasefire, diplomatic negotiations, and significant economic impacts on both Iran and global shipping.

Timeline of Key Events

February – April 2025: Escalation and Blockades

  • February 28, 2025: The United States and Israel initiated a military campaign against Iran. In response, Iran announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz to vessels of "enemy countries" (the US and Israel) and subsequently implemented a system of tolls for other vessels.

  • April 7 – 8, 2025: A ceasefire between the US and Iran came into effect, halting US and Israeli strikes on Iranian infrastructure.

  • April 13, 2025: US President Donald Trump ordered a naval blockade of Iranian ports. US Central Command (CENTCOM) stated the blockade applies to vessels of all nations entering or departing Iranian ports and coastal areas, but does not impede freedom of navigation for vessels transiting the strait to and from non-Iranian ports.

  • April 17, 2025: Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi posted that the Strait of Hormuz would be open to traffic. This was later contradicted by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and other officials, who stated the waterway remained under the "strict management and control" of Iran's armed forces. Iran's Supreme National Security Council stated that control includes payment for security, safety, and environmental services.

  • April 19, 2025: Iran's First Vice President Mohammad Reza Aref stated: "The choice is clear: either a free oil market for all, or the risk of significant costs for everyone."

Recent Incidents and Seizures

  • April 22, 2025: The IRGC captured two foreign container ships—the Panama-flagged MSC Francesca and the Greek-owned, Liberia-flagged Epaminondas—attempting to exit the Gulf. A third vessel, the Liberia-flagged Euphoria, was fired upon but not damaged.

  • Undated (Reported April 2025): The UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) reported a tanker being approached and fired upon by IRGC gunboats. A separate report stated a container ship was hit by an unknown projectile approximately 46 kilometers off the coast of Oman. India summoned Iran's ambassador after an Indian-flagged crude oil carrier was attacked.

  • Undated: Iran's Revolutionary Guard navy warned that any attack on Iranian oil tankers would be met with a "heavy assault" on a US base in the region. This warning followed US strikes on two Iranian oil tankers that the US military stated were attempting to breach the blockade.

  • Undated: The US intercepted and redirected three Iranian-flagged oil tankers in waters near India, Sri Lanka, and Malaysia. CENTCOM reported having turned back or disabled between 58 and 142 vessels (figures vary by source) since the blockade began on April 13.

Competing Claims and Control

The control of the Strait of Hormuz is contested between the US and Iran, leading to a situation where vessels may require approval from both sides to transit safely.

Iran's Position

Iran claims a legal right to regulate traffic through its territorial waters, which cover part of the strait (the narrowest point is 21 nautical miles wide). Iran has stated it will continue to block transit as long as the US naval blockade of its ports remains in effect. Iran re-imposed restrictions and "tolls" for safe passage, with reports of some Asian firms paying fees via Chinese intermediaries. Iran's parliament speaker stated a full ceasefire requires lifting the US blockade.

United States' Position

President Donald Trump has stated the naval blockade will remain until a full agreement is reached with Iran. The US maintains it is enforcing a blockade of Iranian ports, not the strait itself. CENTCOM reported that 23 to 31 vessels had been forced to turn around.

Diplomatic and Military Developments

  • Ceasefire Status: A ceasefire between the US, Israel, and Iran was established on April 7-8, 2025. President Trump extended the two-week ceasefire on April 22.

  • Negotiations: Multiple rounds of talks have stalled. Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister Saeed Khatibzadeh stated Iran was not ready for new face-to-face talks with the US. Pakistan is leading mediation efforts, with Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif reporting "day and night" contact with both sides. A proposed one-page memorandum to end hostilities and reopen the strait has been discussed. UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer stated he hopes a framework will restore freedom of navigation.

  • Military Deployments: The UK deployed the destroyer HMS Dragon to the Middle East for a potential mission to protect commercial ships. France moved its aircraft carrier strike group into the Red Sea.

  • Regional Actions: Bahrain arrested 41 people it claims have links to Iran's Revolutionary Guard, accusing them of collecting funds for operations. Iran issued a warning to Bahrain about the risks of closing the strait.

Impact on Shipping and Sailors

  • Traffic Reduction: Before the conflict, approximately 130 vessels crossed the strait daily. That number has dropped to a handful. Ship tracking data showed just 62 tankers and cargo vessels crossed the strait between April 13 and a later date.

  • Sailor Conditions: Thousands of international seafarers, including a significant number from India, are trapped on vessels in the Gulf. Crew members report witnessing missile activity, explosions, and extended confinement on ships with restricted communication and food shortages.

  • Tanker Captures: Iran has captured at least four ships since the conflict began, including two container ships on April 22.

Economic Consequences

Impact on Iran

The US blockade has restricted Iran's primary revenue source—oil exports. Estimates from the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD) place the cost of the blockade at approximately $435 million per day in lost trade, totaling an estimated $17 billion in 39 days. Despite this, Iran exported 1.84 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude oil in March 2025 and 1.71 million bpd in the first half of April. Analysts note that Iran may sustain exports for several months using floating storage. Iran's annual inflation has surpassed 54%, and prices for basic goods have tripled or quadrupled.

Impact on Global Trade

About 20% of the world's oil and LNG supplies transit the Strait of Hormuz. The conflict has disrupted global supplies of not only energy but also aluminum, plastics, rubber, sulphur, and fertilizer.

Market Reactions

Despite the conflict, the Iranian rial gained over 5% in a week, and the Tehran Stock Exchange main index recovered from a steep drop.

Status of Key Figures

  • Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei: Has not been seen or heard from since the war began. An Iranian official stated Khamenei is in "complete health" but did not specify a timeline for a public appearance.

  • Navy Secretary John C. Phelan: The Pentagon announced his departure "effective immediately" without providing a reason. Reports stated he had clashed with Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth.