Stafford By-Election 2025: Labor Holds On Amid Swing

Labor candidate Luke Richmond has won the by-election for the Queensland state electorate of Stafford, though the party suffered a significant swing against it.

The Vacancy

A by-election for the Queensland state electorate of Stafford was scheduled for May 16, 2025, following the death of the sitting independent MP, Jimmy Sullivan. Sullivan's body was found at his home in Brisbane earlier in April, with police describing the circumstances as non-suspicious.

Jimmy Sullivan was first elected as the member for Stafford in 2020 and was re-elected in 2024. He served as an independent after being removed from the Labor Party caucus in 2023. Prior to his death, the state government had called for his resignation following allegations raised in parliament regarding a domestic incident.

Electoral Logistics

• Date of Election: May 16, 2025
• Writs: Issued by Queensland Governor Jeanette Young
• Voters: Approximately 41,000 enrolled voters in the electorate
• Early Voting: Opened on May 5, 2025; postal voting also available
• Candidate Nominations: Opened on the morning of Saturday, April 26, 2025

Candidates

Nine candidates contested the by-election, including:

Electoral History

• Labor has won the Stafford seat in nine of the last ten elections.
• The seat has been held by Labor at every general election since 2001, with the exception of the 2012 LNP landslide.

Official Statements from Political Leaders

Queensland Premier David Crisafulli (LNP) stated it was important for the Stafford community to have representation ahead of the state budget in June. He linked the by-election to his government's call for the federal government to fast-track environmental approvals for oil projects in the Taroom Trough and discussions about a potential new fuel refinery in Gladstone, framing the vote as a chance for voters to support this plan.

Opposition Leader Steven Miles (Labor) described the by-election as "an opportunity for voters to send a message about the government's performance."

Election Result

Labor candidate Luke Richmond was declared the winner, but the party recorded a swing against it of approximately 4% on a two-party-preferred basis.

Labor's margin in the seat was reduced to approximately 1%. A political scientist predicted the LNP candidate would win 51-52% of the two-party preferred vote, which would be considered a historic loss for Labor.

Analysts suggest that the absence of a One Nation candidate and the full preferences from the Greens were contributing factors to the outcome. In their statement, the Greens' how-to-vote card did not recommend preferences for either major party.

Post-Election Statements

Premier David Crisafulli described the swing toward the LNP as "significant for a by-election."

Opposition Leader Steven Miles stated he intends to lead Labor to the 2028 election. He attributed the swing to Labor and the drop in its primary vote to the absence of a One Nation candidate and the high number of candidates. He also stated the outcome would not change the government or Labor leadership.

Deputy Premier Jarrod Bleijie called the result "disastrous" for Labor and questioned Steven Miles' leadership.