NDIS Reform: Key Developments and Timeline
New Support Planning System: Delay Recommended
Committee Recommendation
The NDIS Reform Advisory Committee (RAC) has recommended delaying the rollout of a new support planning system from July 1, 2024, to at least October 1, 2024.
The RAC, a group of disability representatives formed in 2023 to advise the government on implementing NDIS reforms, stated that the delay would "allow sufficient time for development, testing and meaningful public consultation."
"Implementation should not be rushed in a way that increases the risk of unintended consequences." — RAC Meeting Minutes, March 2024
The minutes from the March meeting were published more than a month after the meeting occurred, despite all other RAC meeting minutes being published on the same day as the meetings.
The New System
The new planning system centers on a tool called the Instrument for the Classification and Assessment of Support Needs (I-CAN) , designed to standardize and simplify the planning process for NDIS participants.
Under the proposed system:
- Participants would be interviewed by an assessor for several hours instead of submitting medical evidence from treating doctors.
- The assessor's findings would be entered into a computer program.
- An algorithm would generate a proposed budget for approval or rejection by an NDIS employee.
Some in the disability community have referred to this approach as "robo-planning."
Unresolved Questions
Several critical details remain unconfirmed, including:
- Who the assessors will be
- What their training requirements will be
- What the appeals process will involve
"We don't yet have many of the pieces of the puzzle that we need in order to assess the implications of these new [systems]." — Emma Bennison, CEO, Disability Advocacy Network Australia
Emma Bennison acknowledged that change is required but said it is critical that reforms are evidence-based, protect participant rights and safety, and are well-communicated. She described the pace and scale of NDIS reform as "really fatiguing."
NDIS Minister Jenny McAllister stated in December 2023 that the "rules and policy arrangements to support the new process" were still being developed. She noted that the I-CAN tool has been used in the care sector for 20 years.
Additional Committee Recommendation
The RAC also recommended that the government implement all recommendations of the Provider Registration Task Force, which presented a blueprint for a tiered registration model for providers in 2024. Mandatory registration has so far only been confirmed for two provider types.
Broader Government Reforms
NDIS Sustainability Taskforce
The federal government established an NDIS Sustainability Taskforce within the Department of Health earlier in 2024, following a January 30 meeting involving Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, state premiers, and Health Minister Mark Butler.
The taskforce, led by former Treasury official Anthea Long, is mandated to advise on cost-cutting options for the NDIS.
Eligibility Changes
The government plans to shift from a diagnosis-based system to functional capacity assessments. Key changes include:
- New assessment tool: From January 1, 2028, a standardized assessment of functional capacity will determine eligibility.
- "Permanence" test: Legislation introduced in May 2024 would require individuals to exhaust "all appropriate" treatment options before being considered permanently impaired.
- Participant reduction: The government aims to reduce participant numbers from approximately 760,000 to about 600,000 by 2030 — 300,000 fewer than current projections.
- Savings target: Estimated savings of $22-$36.2 billion over the forward estimates.
"A diagnosis gateway has funnelled people on to a scheme that was never designed for them." — Minister Mark Butler
Provider Registration and Pricing Reforms
Currently, approximately 15 out of 16 NDIS providers operate without formal registration. Proposed changes include:
- A tiered, risk-based registration model
- Expanding mandatory registration to include higher-risk activities
- A digital payment system to provide oversight
The government is also working on reforms that could shift NDIS pricing powers to the Independent Health and Aged Care Pricing Authority.
Financial Context and Growth Targets
The NDIS is one of the federal government's fastest-growing budget expenses.
Metric Value Current annual cost ~$50-52 billion Projected cost without changes (2028-29) $63 billion Projected cost without changes (2030) $70 billion Projected cost by mid-2030s (without changes) $100 billion Current annual growth rate 10.3% Government growth target (current) 8% Government growth target (proposed) 5-6%New Support Programs
A new program called "Thriving Kids" has been established to support children with autism and developmental delays who may be redirected from the NDIS.
- $4 billion allocated, jointly funded by federal and state/territory governments
- Federal contribution includes ~$1.4 billion for direct service delivery
- Scheduled to begin rolling out in October 2024
- Fully operational by 2028
- Some states, including Queensland, have not yet signed on
Fraud and Integrity Measures
The NDIS loses approximately $3.7 billion annually to fraud and other integrity issues — about 8.3% of total payments.
The NDIS Fraud Fusion Taskforce has reported:
- 25 successful prosecutions
- 15 current court cases
- Over 600 active investigations
- More than 2,500 providers removed from the scheme
The Australian Criminal Intelligence Commission informed the parliamentary review that organized crime groups are using the NDIS for money laundering, income generation, and asset concealment. Methods include false and inflated support claims, payments requested while individuals were hospitalized or incarcerated, and claims against expired NDIS plans.
The government has allocated over $500 million to combat fraud and requested a new parliamentary inquiry into fraudulent activities.
Reactions and Statements
Government Officials
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese emphasized the need for the scheme to be sustainable and fit for purpose.
Treasurer Jim Chalmers stated that cuts to the NDIS would be "easily the most important part of the savings package" in the upcoming budget, describing the NDIS as "growing too fast for Australians to afford."
Minister Mark Butler described the NDIS as "off track" and lacking "disciplined design features."
Opposition
Shadow NDIS Minister Melissa McIntosh described the lack of basic safeguards for some providers as "madness" and called the eligibility changes a "complete bombshell" for people with a disability.
Disability Sector
"The disability community feels anxious and burdened by the pace and scale of reform." — Emma Bennison, CEO, Disability Advocacy Network Australia
Michael Perusco, CEO of National Disability Services, stated that members observe frequent integrity failures within a system characterized by weak oversight and inconsistent pricing.
Megan Spindler-Smith, acting CEO of People with Disability Australia, reported that individuals are delaying support, avoiding plan reviews, and questioning the continuity of essential services due to uncertainty about reforms.
Research and Data
An Australian National University study found evidence that the introduction of the NDIS led to a 32% increase in reported autism prevalence, with disability service providers becoming more likely to provide diagnoses after the scheme's introduction.