New research from Mass General Brigham investigators indicates that long-term exposure to excess weight is a stronger predictor of cardiovascular risk than a single Body Mass Index (BMI) measurement. The findings, published in PLOS One, suggest that weight loss and reduced excess weight exposure may decrease an individual's cardiovascular risk.
"Excess weight at any given point in time is not a life sentence. What happens to someone's weight over long periods of time matters more for heart health. Our study suggests that if a person lowers their weight, their health outcomes can improve."
— Alexander Turchin, MD, MS, Division of Endocrinology, Mass General Brigham
Understanding the Research
The study analyzed data from 136,498 participants from the Nurses' Health Study and Health Professionals Follow-Up Study. Participants had a baseline BMI above 25 kg/m2 and were aged 25 to 69 for women and 43 to 80 for men at the study's start in 1990.
Researchers estimated cumulative exposure to excess BMI over a ten-year period by averaging BMI measurements between 1990 and 2000. Cardiovascular health follow-up began in 2000 and continued for an average of 16.7 years. During this period, 12,048 (8.8%) of participants experienced cardiovascular events, such as a heart attack or stroke.
Key Findings on Cardiovascular Risk
The team identified a strong correlation between long-term exposure to excess weight and increased cardiovascular disease risk. This effect was most pronounced in younger age groups and those with the highest cumulative excess weight exposure.
For example, women under 35 at baseline with high cumulative exposure faced a 60% higher risk of cardiovascular disease. This compares to a 27% higher risk for women aged 35-50 and 23% for men aged 35-65. Notably, no association was found for women older than 50 or men older than 65.
Turchin stated that these findings should motivate patients and clinicians to address excess weight to improve long-term health.