New Lancet Commission, Co-Chaired by Christiana Figueres, to Address Health Injustice of Rising Seas
Christiana Figueres, former UN climate chief and lead negotiator for the 2016 Paris Agreement, has stated that countries are dependent on fossil fuels, describing the health consequences of climate change as a major injustice. She made these remarks during the announcement of her co-chair position for a new Lancet Commission.
The Lancet Commission will investigate how rising sea levels affect health, well-being, and equality, reporting its findings by September 2027.
It will also examine legal frameworks to hold countries accountable for health damages caused by sea-level rise.
The Interconnected Crisis: Fossil Fuels, Geopolitics, and Health
Figueres indicated that current fuel crises demonstrate global reliance on fossil fuels, which contributes to geopolitical instability and the health impacts the commission will analyze. The commission's formation follows calls from Pacific island health ministers for increased global attention to sea-level rise as a health and justice concern.
Direct Impacts on Human Life
Key impacts of rising sea levels include:
- Contamination of drinking water.
- Damage to food supplies.
- Forced displacement of communities.
Uneven Threat: Global Disparities in Sea-Level Rise
Sea-level rise is not uniform, influenced by factors such as weather patterns, ocean currents, and gravitational changes from melting ice sheets.
The rise is more significant in oceans further from ice sheets and is higher than global averages in the Pacific region, potentially rendering island nations like Tuvalu, Kiribati, and Fiji uninhabitable within decades. Numerous low-lying cities, including New Orleans, Cardiff, London, and Amsterdam, also face threats.
Underestimated Threat
Research published in Nature in March indicated that previous estimations of ocean levels were underestimated due to inaccurate modeling. In certain areas of the global south, such as Southeast Asia and the Indo-Pacific, actual levels may be 100cm to 150cm higher than prior projections.
Reframing the Narrative: From Complexity to Human Impact
Figueres acknowledged the climate community's tendency to explain issues using complex terminology.
She argued that framing climate change in terms of health, dignity, livelihoods, identity, and cultural continuity offers a more effective approach to reducing emissions, highlighting its direct relevance to human experience.
She emphasized that climate change is currently affecting drinking water, sanitation, and food security due to the salinization of coastal lands, characterizing it as a health crisis and a significant injustice.
Addressing Trauma and Intergenerational Injustice
The commission intends to address the intergenerational trauma and inequality resulting from displacement.
Figueres highlighted the emotional and social costs experienced by Pacific island communities compelled to leave ancestral lands. She also noted concerns among young people regarding the future conditions for raising children due to climate change impacts.
Pursuing Accountability and Legal Justice
Efforts will focus on holding major polluters accountable for irreversible harm to countries that contribute minimally to climate change. The commission will evaluate existing legal instruments, identify protection gaps, and explore new mechanisms to safeguard health and ensure justice for affected communities.
The Role of International Law
An advisory opinion from the International Court of Justice (ICJ) in 2025 concluded that countries have a legal obligation to prevent climate harm, and failure to do so could lead to compensation and restitution. While non-binding, Figueres stated that this finding would increase climate litigation cases.
Vanuatu plans to lead a UN General Assembly resolution in May to uphold the ICJ opinion, which could influence its global implementation. However, UN experts have reported resistance from some states to considering the resolution and to explicit references to fossil fuels and legal responsibility for climate harm.
Beyond Legal Binding: A Holistic Approach to Emissions Reduction
Figueres expressed skepticism that legally binding agreements alone are sufficient, citing Canada's withdrawal from the Kyoto agreement to avoid penalties.
She suggested that a combination of legal pressure, scientific evidence, and appealing to the "enlightened self-interest" of governments and corporations would be more effective in driving emission reductions.