Funding Cuts Threaten 10% Increase in HIV Infections, Study Finds

A Johns Hopkins Medicine study, funded by the NIH, utilized a computer model to evaluate the impact of funding cuts for HIV testing. Researchers estimate that HIV infections could increase by an average of 10% across 18 U.S. states if current funding is interrupted or ended.

Expert Perspective on Prevention

"Timely HIV diagnosis and treatment are crucial for preventing transmission," stated lead researcher Todd T. Fojo, M.D., M.H.S., associate professor of medicine at the Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine.

Fojo noted that despite significant progress in combating the HIV epidemic over 40 years, a reversal would have substantial consequences. Treating an individual with HIV over their lifetime is costly, making prevention economically beneficial.

Key Findings from the Simulation Model

The study, published February 4 in Clinical Infectious Diseases, highlighted that individuals diagnosed with HIV receive treatment that prevents transmission. If effective testing is unavailable, more people may remain unaware of their HIV status, increasing the likelihood of viral transmission.

The simulation model analyzed HIV infections across 18 states, factoring in population demographics such as age, race, and sex. It estimated testing frequency and the proportion of tests supported by CDC funding. The model projected an additional 12,751 infections over the next five years across the 18 states, representing a 10% increase compared to sustained CDC-funded testing.

State-Specific Projections

Fojo explained that the projected increase varies significantly by state, primarily based on existing testing levels and reliance on CDC funding. For instance, Washington state's infections might increase by 2.7%, while Louisiana could see nearly a 30% rise, aligning with higher CDC-funded diagnosis rates in Louisiana. States with a more rural HIV epidemic tend to be disproportionately affected by testing funding cuts.

Future Research

Future research aims to assess the impact of losing CDC funding for other HIV prevention activities on infection rates in the United States.

Research Team

Contributors to the research included:

• Melissa Schnure, Ph.D., Sc.M., Kelly A. Gebo, M.D., M.P.H., and Maunank Shah, M.D., Ph.D. from Johns Hopkins Medicine;
• Ryan Forster, Ph.D., Keri N. Althoff, Ph.D., M.P.H., David W. Dowdy, M.D., Ph.D., and Parastu Kasaie, Ph.D., M.S. from the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health;
• Ruchita Balasubramanian, M.Phil, and William P. Hanage, Ph.D., of the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health; and
• D. Scott Batey, Ph.D., M.S.W., of the Tulane School of Social Work.

No conflicts of interest were reported by the authors.