A review of market activity in 2025 highlights several significant trends, including the S&P 500's performance, a market recovery following tariff announcements, and the appreciation of gold prices. This report identifies market forecasters whose predictions aligned with these developments.
I. S&P 500 Performance and Forecasts
The S&P 500 experienced a 17% return in 2025, closing the year around 6,900. The index's trajectory included a 19% decline following the January release of DeepSeek's chatbot and President Donald Trump's "Liberation Day" tariff announcement in April.
- Manish Kabra (Société Générale): Kabra projected a 2025 S&P 500 price target of 6,750. He attributed this outlook to policies anticipated to stimulate U.S. economic growth, such as deregulation and reduced taxation. For 2026, Kabra forecasts an S&P 500 target of 7,300, recommending investments in consumer cyclical, financials, and industrials, citing benefits from the One Big Beautiful Bill Act. His strategy emphasizes a "buy America first" approach focused on U.S. re-industrialization.
- Nicholas Colas (DataTrek): Colas issued a 2025 S&P 500 price target of 6,840. His forecast was based on the expectation of a resilient U.S. economy, stating in late 2024 that economic indicators did not suggest an impending downturn. Colas has not provided a 2026 price target but indicated potential outperformance for materials, real estate, and utilities sectors.
II. Market Recovery Post-Tariff Announcement
Following President Trump's April 2 announcement of reciprocal tariffs, the S&P 500 declined by 12% over several days. Certain strategists identified April 9 as a likely market bottom.
- David Sekera (Morningstar): Sekera noted that by April, falling prices made the market an attractive buying opportunity, having reached approximately a 20% discount to fair value. On April 9, he advised investors to consider a small, tactical overweight position. The S&P 500 subsequently gained 10% on that day and 38% since then. For 2026, Sekera suggested focusing on companies benefiting from AI implementation rather than AI infrastructure firms, listing examples such as Clorox, Mondelez, ServiceNow, and Kraft Heinz.
- Marko Papic (BCA Research): Prior to the April 2 tariff announcement, Papic predicted that a 15-20% drop in the S&P 500 would prompt a policy reversal, citing the president's sensitivity to economic and market performance. For 2026, Papic forecasts continued outperformance of international stocks and a 10% decline in the U.S. dollar index.
- Ryan Detrick (Carson Group): On April 9, Detrick presented historical market indicators on CNBC suggesting a significant tactical low. These indicators included over 80% of S&P 500 stocks reaching a 20-day low, the VIX surpassing 50, and extreme intraday volatility levels previously observed during market lows in 2003 and 2015. Detrick anticipates an upside surprise in the economy for 2026 despite some labor market weakness and projects a continuation of the commodity boom. He recommends equities with increased commodity exposure.
III. Gold Price Surge and Forecasts
After a 27% increase in 2024, the price of gold surged by over 60% in 2025, reaching a high of $4,552 per ounce. This contrasted with most Wall Street strategists' initial 2025 upper bound forecasts of approximately $3,000.
- Jeffrey Gundlach (Doubleline Capital): Gundlach forecasted gold prices to exceed $4,000 an ounce as early as March 2025. He attributed this to investor concerns regarding geopolitical instability, tariffs, and government debt, leading to fears of fiat currency debasement. In November, Gundlach recommended a portfolio allocation of 20% cash, 25% bonds, 10-15% "real assets" (including gold), and 40% international stocks.