Iran Protests, Military Strikes, and Aftermath: A Timeline

Over multiple weeks, Iran experienced nationwide protests that began in late December over economic conditions and expanded into challenges to the country's leadership. Protests resulted in thousands of fatalities, according to various rights groups and government officials.

The Iranian government restricted internet and communications, deployed security forces, and offered economic reforms. International figures issued statements of support for protesters and warnings to Iranian authorities. The U.S. and Israel subsequently conducted military strikes against Iran, which led to Iran's supreme leader being killed, according to reports.

Timeline of Protests

Origins and Escalation

Protests commenced on December 28 in Tehran's Grand Bazaar, initiated by shopkeepers reacting to a sharp decline in the value of the Iranian rial against the U.S. dollar. The demonstrations subsequently expanded to include university students and broadened across multiple cities. Reports indicated protests occurred in at least 15 to 27 of Iran's 31 provinces over the following weeks.

Protest Activities

In larger Iranian cities, citizens gathered in streets after 7 p.m., with crowds growing as the night progressed. Participants reportedly included individuals of all ages, engaging in chanting and large gatherings. Slogans included "Death to the dictator," referring to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and "Pahlavi is coming back," referencing the exiled son of the late shah, Reza Pahlavi. Some demonstrators called for a return to monarchy, while others sought democratic independence.

Specific Incidents

• Clashes between protesters and security forces were reported in Lordegan, Azna, and Kouhdasht, among other locations.
• A police entry into the University of Birjand resulted in student arrests.
• Witnesses reported protests in Mashhad, a city described as a conservative stronghold, where crowds called for Khamenei's overthrow.
• In a separate development, Iraq-based Iranian Kurdish opposition parties initiated a general strike in western Iran's Kurdish-populated regions.

Casualty Figures

Multiple Estimates

Death tolls reported during the protests vary significantly:

Specific Reports

• HRANA reported at least 5,811 severe injuries and 26,015 arrests during the protests, with 4,029 confirmed fatalities and 9,049 fatalities under review.
• Reports indicated police entry into a hospital in the western city of Ilam, where wounded protesters were said to be sheltering.
• A resident reported government forces entering homes and killing individuals indoors, as well as kidnappings.
• Some families reported being required to pay fees and falsely claim deceased relatives were paramilitary members to retrieve bodies.
• Amnesty International accused Iranian security forces of employing "unlawful force" against protesters and bystanders.

Iranian Government Response

Security Measures

• Iranian police chief Ahmad-Reza Radan stated security forces had targeted and detained numerous protest leaders, including those active on online platforms.
• Judiciary head Gholamhossein Mohseni Ejei stated that the era of "concessions and appeasement" toward protesters had concluded, accusing the U.S. and Israel of openly supporting "chaos" in Iran.
• Prosecutor-General Mohammad Movahedi-Azad issued a warning that attempts to create instability would be met with a "decisive response."
• A network of new security checkpoints, staffed by Iran's Basij militia, was established across major cities.

Communication Restrictions

• NetBlocks, an internet monitoring group, reported a nationwide internet blackout late on Thursday night, local time, following "a series of escalating digital censorship measures."
• Overall connectivity reportedly remained at approximately 2% of standard levels.
• Eyewitnesses reported blocked access to international news outlets and cut telephone and text services.

Economic Measures

• President Masoud Pezeshkian announced a change in the foreign exchange subsidy system, aiming to introduce direct consumer subsidies.
• The parliament reviewed budget revisions proposing pay raises up to 43%, a reduction in value-added tax from 12% to 10%, and an allocation of $8.8 billion in subsidized foreign exchange for essential goods.
• Official data indicated a December inflation rate of 52.6%.

Official Statements

Iranian officials adopted a dual strategy:

Acknowledgment of Economic Concerns:

• President Pezeshkian stated his intention to address the "legitimate demands" of the protesters and advocated for "utmost restraint" in managing demonstrations, stating that "any violent or coercive behaviour should be avoided."
• Parliament speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf stated that protesters' "legitimate demands" should be heard and used as the basis for change.

Warning Against Instability:

• Supreme Leader Khamenei stated that while authorities would engage with protesters, "rioters should be put in their place."
• Prosecutor Ali Hasavand stated that "any participation in illegal gatherings and any action aimed at disturbing public order, destroying property, disobeying law enforcement, inciting illegal gatherings… constitute crimes and will be treated with the greatest firmness by the courts."
• President Pezeshkian stated that failure to address economic challenges would lead to severe consequences.

International Reactions

United States

• Former President Donald Trump posted on Truth Social that if Iran "shots and violently kills peaceful protesters, the United States of America will come to their rescue. We are locked and loaded and ready to go."
• Trump subsequently stated he had been informed "on good authority" that "the killing in Iran is stopping – it's stopped" and that "there's no plans for executions."
• Trump later told reporters on Air Force One: "We're watching it very closely. If they start killing people like they have in the past, I think they're going to get hit very hard by the United States."

Iran's Response to International Statements

• Ali Larijani, head of Iran's top security body, warned that "US interference in this internal matter would mean destabilizing the entire region and destroying America's interest," adding that the U.S. president "should be mindful of their soldiers' safety."
• Ali Shamkhani, an adviser to Khamenei, cautioned that "any interventionist hand that gets too close to the security of Iran will be cut," referencing past U.S. actions in Iraq, Afghanistan, and Gaza.
• Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf cautioned the United States against any "miscalculation."
• The Iranian foreign ministry characterized Trump's statements as "psychological warfare."
• Iran threatened to retaliate against Israel and U.S. military installations if the US initiated strikes on Iranian territory.

U.S.-Israeli Military Strikes and Aftermath

Strike Details

The U.S. conducted strikes against Iranian nuclear sites. U.S. officials asserted these strikes significantly impacted Iran's nuclear weapon development prospects, a claim disputed by Iran. Following these strikes, Iran launched a missile attack on a major U.S. military base in Qatar as retaliation.

As of late April, a ceasefire was extended indefinitely while the U.S. continues a naval blockade on Iranian ports. The U.S. reports striking over 10,000 targets in Iran.

Casualties from Strikes

According to the Defense Department, 13 U.S. service members were killed and 400 wounded. Iran's forensic medical agency reports over 3,300 Iranian deaths from U.S.-Israeli strikes.

Public Opinion

A Reuters/Ipsos poll from April 15-20 found that 60% of Americans disapprove of the U.S. military strikes against Iran; 51% said the action was not worth it.

Death of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei

Reported Circumstances

Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was reported killed on Saturday by U.S. and Israeli strikes. Iranian authorities declared Khamenei a martyr and announced 40 days of mourning. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps issued a threat of its "most intense offensive operation" in retaliation.

International Responses

Celebrations and Grief:
The news elicited diverse reactions globally, including celebrations in some parts of Iran and among the Iranian diaspora, alongside grief and anger among other Iranians and Shia Muslims globally.

Australia:

• Five Shia mosques and Islamic centers in Sydney and Melbourne organized memorial services.
• Organizations including Masjid Arrahman, Husaineyat Sayeda Zaynab, Flagbearer Foundation, and El Zahra Islamic Community Centre held gatherings.
• NSW Premier Chris Minns criticized the mourning of Khamenei, stating "by any objective measure the ayatollah was evil."
• Prime Minister Anthony Albanese stated he would not direct security agencies to investigate the mosques, saying agencies perform their work independently.
• A Sky News reporter was advised to leave a Sydney mosque after attempting to question worshippers.

UN Response:

• UN Special Rapporteur Mai Sato called for an independent fact-finding mission to investigate potential crimes against humanity in Iran.
• The UN Human Rights Council considered holding an emergency meeting to re-establish an independent fact-finding mission.
• Sato estimated at least 5,000 civilians had been killed, with potential figures exceeding 20,000 based on reports from doctors inside Iran.

Conditions Inside Iran Following Strikes

Daily Life

Iran experienced a total telecommunications blackout. Residents described becoming accustomed to identifying fighter jets overhead, enduring constant sirens, and the silence following airstrikes. Tehran residents described largely deserted streets, patrolled by Basij members and vigilantes.

Preparations for Nowruz, the Persian New Year, were disrupted, with security forces banning holiday gatherings.

Civilian Casualties from Strikes

HRANA reported at least 1,300 civilian casualties since the U.S. and Israel began striking Iran on February 28.

Iranian Diaspora Perspectives

Views on Foreign Intervention

Iranians living abroad expressed diverse views:

• Support for Intervention: Some individuals called for U.S. intervention, believing it was the only way to remove the current government.
• Opposition to Intervention: Others argued that any U.S. involvement would be a "disaster," potentially leading to civil war and regional instability.
• Internal Change: Some expressed hope for internal change, though considered it challenging.

Reza Pahlavi's Statements

"The Iranian people are taking decisive action on the ground. It is now time for the international community to join them fully."

Reza Pahlavi, the exiled son of Iran's former shah, called on the international community to assist in removing Khamenei. Speaking at a Washington news conference, Pahlavi stated the above.

Case of Imprisoned Individuals

Farhnaz Nikkhoo

Nikoo Jalilvand Fard, a Melbourne resident, expressed concern for her mother, Farhnaz Nikkhoo, held in Iran's Evin prison for three years on accusations of spying for Israel. Nikkhoo reported five months in solitary confinement, inadequate food and medical care, and physical and psychological torture.

Narges Mohammadi

Nobel Peace Prize laureate Narges Mohammadi remains imprisoned following her arrest in December. The Norwegian Nobel Committee requested Iranian authorities to "immediately clarify Mohammadi's whereabouts, ensure her safety and integrity, and to release her without conditions."

Public Perception and Resolve

Despite security measures, some Iranians communicated a determination to continue protesting. A resident stated that Iranians are willing to risk their lives for regime change, prioritizing this over personal safety. Another individual expressed that protests should continue for future generations, stating that retreat is not an option.