Protests Sweep Across Iran: Economic Grievances Spark Nationwide Unrest

A wave of protests, beginning in late December with economic grievances, has spread across multiple provinces in Iran. The demonstrations, initially triggered by a sharp decline in the value of the Iranian rial and high inflation, have expanded to include political demands and have resulted in a number of reported fatalities. International figures, including former US President Donald Trump, have issued statements regarding the situation, prompting responses from Iranian officials.

Origin and Expansion of Protests

The demonstrations began on December 28 in Tehran's Grand Bazaar, with shopkeepers protesting the decline of the Iranian rial. The protests subsequently expanded to include university students and spread to cities and towns across the country.

Reports indicate that protests have occurred in at least 15 of Iran's 31 provinces, with some sources stating up to 27 provinces have seen demonstrations.

Casualties and Arrests

Reports of casualties and arrests vary significantly across different sources and timeframes.

Early Reports (Days 1–9)

On the fifth day of protests, reports from the semi-official Fars news agency and the human rights group Hengaw indicated at least six deaths. Fars reported two deaths in Lordegan, three in Azna, and one in Kouhdasht, without specifying whether the deceased were protesters or security forces. Hengaw identified two individuals killed in Lordegan as protesters. Iranian officials reported the death of a security force member on the fourth day in Kouhdasht. By the ninth day, human rights activists reported at least 19 protesters and one security force member killed.

Cumulative Reports (Weeks 1–3)

The US-based Human Rights Activists News Agency (HRANA) reported over 2,500 deaths and thousands of arrests by the 18th day. Other reports cited figures of over 2,000 detainees and approximately 2,600 arrests. The Iranian government has labeled the demonstrations as "riots" supported by adversaries.

Later Reports (Post-9 Days)

HRANA subsequently reported over 6,000 protester deaths. The Norway-based Iran Human Rights group stated the final toll might surpass 25,000. Iranian authorities reported at least 3,117 fatalities, asserting the majority were security forces members or bystanders, and attributed the deaths to "rioters."

UN Estimates

UN-appointed Special Rapporteur Mai Sato estimated at least 5,000 civilian deaths, citing reports of figures up to 20,000 from sources including doctors within Iran.

Government and Security Force Response

Statements

• President Masoud Pezeshkian advocated for "utmost restraint" and stated his intention to address "legitimate demands."
• Prosecutor-General Mohammad Movahedi-Azad warned that attempts to create instability would be met with a "decisive response."
• Judiciary head Gholamhossein Mohseni Ejei stated that the era of "concessions and appeasement" had concluded.
• Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei declared that "rioters should be put in their place."

Actions

• Security forces have reportedly used lethal force against protesters, including shotguns, semiautomatic rifles, and machine guns.
• Reports indicate police entered the University of Birjand, resulting in student arrests.
• Authorities detained the administrator of online accounts promoting the protests.
• Police chief Ahmad-Reza Radan stated security forces had targeted and detained numerous protest leaders.

Internet Blackout

NetBlocks reported a nationwide internet blackout, describing it as hindering "the public's right to communicate." Connectivity was reported at approximately 2% of standard levels.

International Statements and Reactions

United States

Former President Donald Trump posted on social media that if Iranian authorities "violently kill peaceful protesters," the US would "come to their rescue." He later stated the US was "locked and loaded and ready to go." Trump subsequently told reporters that Iranian authorities would be "hit very hard" if additional protesters were killed. He also posted on Truth Social, "Iranian patriots, keep protesting ... help is on the way."

Iran

Senior adviser Ali Larijani responded to Trump's statements, warning that US interference "would mean destabilizing the entire region and destroying America's interests," adding "We are locked and loaded and ready to go."

The Iranian foreign ministry characterized Trump's statements as "psychological warfare." Parliament speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf cautioned the US against any "miscalculation." Foreign ministry spokesman Esmail Baqai accused Israel of seeking to "undermine our national unity."

Israel

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu commented that the protests had expanded significantly, suggesting a "defining moment" for the Iranian populace.

Germany

Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul criticized Iranian officials' "excessive use of force."

United Nations

Secretary-General António Guterres urged Iran to uphold demonstrators' right to peaceful protest. Special Rapporteur Mai Sato stated an independent fact-finding mission should investigate potential crimes against humanity.

Economic Context

The protests commenced amid significant economic hardship. The Iranian rial has reached record lows against the US dollar. Inflation was reported at 36% since March, rising to 40% and later to 52.6% in December. Re-imposition of international sanctions related to Iran's nuclear program, challenges in providing essential services, and predictions of a recession by global financial bodies contribute to the economic situation. President Pezeshkian announced a change in the foreign exchange subsidy system, which may initially increase food prices, aiming to introduce direct consumer subsidies.

Historical Context

These demonstrations are the most widespread since an uprising in 2022, which was sparked by the death in custody of Mahsa Amini. The current protests are also the largest since protests in late 2019 following a rise in fuel prices. Prior to the protests, Iran and Israel engaged in a 12-day conflict in June, during which Israeli and US jets reportedly bombed key Iranian nuclear facilities. A UN fact-finding mission was established after the 2022 protests, with a mandate scheduled to conclude in March.

Exiled Opposition and Diaspora Views

Calls for International Action

Reza Pahlavi, the exiled son of Iran’s former shah, called on the international community to assist in removing Supreme Leader Khamenei. He urged European leaders to "act more decisively" in supporting the Iranian people.

Diverse Diaspora Perspectives

Iranians living abroad expressed varied opinions on the crisis, including:

• Opposition to foreign intervention, citing historical negative outcomes and a belief that Iranians should achieve change independently.
• Support for foreign intervention as the only way to remove the current government.
• Concern that US involvement would be a "disaster," potentially leading to civil war and regional instability.
• A view that meaningful change would likely take "a generation."