Public Survey Indicates Skepticism on U.S. Trade Policy as Trade Deficits Shift with Major Partners in 2025

Americans Skeptical of Trade Policy Amid Shifting Global Balances

One year after the implementation of widespread tariffs, a new Pew Research Center survey, conducted after April 2, 2025, reveals that a majority of Americans harbor skepticism regarding the nation's trade policy. These findings align with recent U.S. Census Bureau data indicating significant shifts in trade deficits with key partners in 2025.

Notably, a record U.S. trade deficit with Mexico surpassed that with China for the first time this century.

Public Confidence in U.S. Trade Policy

The Pew Research Center survey found a prevailing lack of confidence in the current administration's trade decisions. Fifty-eight percent of adults expressed low confidence in President Donald Trump's ability to make sound decisions on U.S. trade policy. An even higher percentage, 63%, reported low confidence specifically concerning his management of tariff policy. President Trump had previously described his tariff policy as "Liberation Day."

Confidence levels vary significantly along political and demographic lines. Republicans and Republican-leaning independents are notably more likely to express confidence in Trump's trade decisions, with 74% affirming confidence, compared to just 12% among Democrats and Democratic leaners.

Among adults aged 50 and older, this partisan divide becomes even more pronounced. Eighty-four percent of Republicans in this age group express confidence (48% very confident), while a striking 92% of Democrats in the same group lack confidence (69% having no confidence at all). Across all surveyed groups, skepticism toward tariff policy decision-making is consistently higher than for broader trade policy.

Shifting Perceptions of Trade Partners

American attitudes regarding trade relations with China, Canada, and Mexico have undergone notable shifts since the previous year.

In 2025, 42% of Americans believe China benefits more than the U.S. from their trade relationship. This represents a slight decrease from 46% reported in the previous year. Only 11% believe the U.S. benefits more, while 24% state that both countries benefit equally.

Perceptions of trade with Canada also shifted. The percentage of Americans who believe both countries benefit equally from trade decreased to 37%, down from 44% in the previous year. Twenty-one percent now state Canada benefits more than the U.S., a decrease from 26%, while 12% believe the U.S. benefits more (an increase from 10%).

Similarly, attitudes toward Mexico's trade relationship with the U.S. show change. Only 28% of Americans believe both countries benefit equally, a reduction from 34% in the previous year. The percentage who say Mexico benefits more than the U.S. decreased to 22% (from 29%), while those who indicate the U.S. benefits more increased to 22% (from 16%).

Republicans generally show a higher likelihood than Democrats to believe that China, Canada, and Mexico benefit more from trade with the U.S. In contrast, Democrats are more inclined to perceive mutual benefit. Since the prior year, Republicans have become less likely to state that other countries benefit more from trade with the U.S. Both parties have also shown increased uncertainty regarding which countries benefit more, particularly concerning North American trade relations.

U.S. Trade Deficits: Key Shifts in 2025

According to U.S. Census Bureau data, China, Canada, and Mexico collectively accounted for 31.5% of all U.S. imports and 28.6% of all U.S. exports in 2025. The total volume of goods and services traded between the U.S. and these three partners decreased from approximately $2.5 trillion in 2024 to $2.4 trillion in 2025.

The U.S. trade deficit with Mexico reached a record $194.6 billion in 2025, marking the first time this century that the U.S. trade deficit with Mexico surpassed that with China.

This significant increase was primarily driven by a 4.4% rise in imports from Mexico, while exports to Mexico increased by a more modest 1.5%.

In a notable shift, the U.S.-China trade deficit narrowed from $262.2 billion in 2024 to $168.1 billion in 2025. This narrowing was due to a significant 28.0% decrease in imports from China, alongside a 17.7% decrease in exports to China.

The U.S.-Canada trade deficit also narrowed, decreasing from $36.0 billion to $24.4 billion. This occurred despite a 4.4% drop in the total trade volume between the two nations.

The total U.S. trade deficit for goods and services increased slightly to $911.7 billion in 2025, up from $903.5 billion in 2024.