Sudan's Civil War: A Conflict in Its Third Year

The complex civil war in Sudan, now in its third year, continues to result in significant territorial shifts, a catastrophic humanitarian situation, and international actions including sanctions and calls for accountability. The conflict between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) has displaced millions, caused widespread famine, and led to allegations of mass atrocities.

Military Developments and Territorial Control

The conflict, which began in April 2023 from a power struggle between the two formerly allied forces, has led to a distinct geographic division within Sudan.

RSF Advances: The RSF solidified control over western Sudan with the capture of el-Fasher, the capital of North Darfur state, on October 26, 2024. The city had been under an 18-month siege. The RSF also claims control of Heglig, Sudan's largest oil field, and has made advances in the Kordofan region, capturing the town of Bara.

SAF Holdings: The Sudanese army maintains control of the capital, Khartoum, as well as central and eastern regions along the Red Sea. The city of el-Obeid in North Kordofan remains under army control, though it has been repeatedly targeted.

Recent Attacks: Following the RSF's stated acceptance of a U.S.-proposed humanitarian ceasefire on November 7, residents reported drone attacks in Khartoum and the northern town of Atbara on November 8. The RSF did not comment on these incidents.

Humanitarian Crisis and Reported Atrocities

The UN describes the situation in Sudan as the world's largest humanitarian crisis, with severe impacts on food security and civilian safety.

Displacement and Famine: Over 14 million people have been displaced. The UN refugee agency (UNHCR) reported over 60,000 people fled el-Fasher following its capture. The Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) has confirmed famine conditions in multiple areas, including el-Fasher, Kadugli in South Kordofan, and, as of November 2024, in the Darfur towns of Umm Baru and Kernoi.

Allegations in el-Fasher

A UN Human Rights Office report released in November 2024 documented widespread violations during the RSF's offensive on el-Fasher between October 25-27, stating over 6,000 people were killed.

The report described mass killings, summary executions, sexual violence, and abductions, noting many attacks appeared ethnically motivated. The findings were based on witness interviews and satellite imagery analysis.

Specific incidents cited include an attack at el-Fasher university resulting in approximately 500 fatalities and the storming of the Saudi Maternity hospital, where the World Health Organization reported at least 460 killed.

Other Civilian Attacks

Multiple drone strikes on civilian targets have been reported:

• A strike on a funeral in al-Luweib village, North Kordofan, on November 4 killed at least 40.
• A strike on a residential property in el-Obeid on November 11 killed 13 people, including eight children.
• A strike on a vehicle carrying displaced families near Er Rahad, North Kordofan, on November 16 killed at least 24, including children.
• Strikes on a kindergarten and hospital in South Kordofan on November 18 killed at least 114, including 63 children, according to the WHO.

Aid Obstruction: Sudan's military government expelled two senior UN World Food Programme (WFP) officials in early November, declaring them personae non grata. The WFP stated humanitarian needs are acute, with over 24 million people facing food insecurity. Drone attacks have also targeted aid convoys, including a WFP convoy in North Kordofan on November 15 that killed one person.

Accountability and International Response

RSF Statements: RSF leader General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo announced an investigation into alleged violations by his forces in el-Fasher and released footage of the arrest of a fighter accused of summary executions. The RSF denies allegations that killings are ethnically motivated or constitute genocide.

UN and ICC: The UN Human Rights Council held an urgent session on el-Fasher. UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Türk stated there are "reasonable grounds" to conclude the RSF committed war crimes and crimes against humanity. The International Criminal Court (ICC) has warned reported atrocities could constitute such crimes.

U.S. Actions: The United States has imposed sanctions on a network of eight entities and individuals, primarily Colombian nationals, accused of recruiting hundreds of former Colombian soldiers to serve as infantry and drone pilots for the RSF. The U.S. State Department has previously stated it determined RSF members committed genocide.

UN Expert Report: A UN-backed independent fact-finding mission reported in November 2024 that the RSF's campaign in Darfur shows "hallmarks of genocide," meeting at least three criteria of the Genocide Convention through ethnically targeted killings and the imposition of siege conditions.

Ceasefire Efforts: The RSF agreed to a humanitarian ceasefire proposal supported by the U.S., UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt. The Sudanese military-led government has not agreed, with officials stating they would only consider a truce if the RSF were dismantled and its leader held accountable. Previous ceasefire agreements have not held.