The 2026 CPAC Straw Poll: JD Vance Leads for 2028, Marco Rubio Shows Significant Gains
The 2026 Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) straw poll concluded with Vice President JD Vance topping the survey for the second consecutive year. Secretary of State Marco Rubio also demonstrated significant gains in support, signaling a potential shift in the Republican landscape for the 2028 presidential election.
Poll Results: Vance's Continued Dominance and Rubio's Surge
Attendees at the annual four-day conference were polled on their preferred candidate to lead the Republican Party ticket for the 2028 presidential election. The results, revealed on Saturday, showcased clear preferences among the approximately 1,600 attendees:
- JD Vance secured 53 percent of the votes, reinforcing his strong position at the top.
- Marco Rubio received 35 percent of the vote. This marks a notable improvement for Rubio, who had previously tied for fourth place in last year's CPAC straw poll with just 3 percent support.
Rubio's dramatic increase in support is a significant development, especially compared to last year's results where Vance held 61 percent, Steve Bannon 12 percent, and Ron DeSantis 7 percent.
Context and the Evolving Political Landscape
The CPAC straw poll serves as an indicator for potential Republican presidential nominees, though its accuracy is not guaranteed. The conference generally attracts attendees from the farther right of the political spectrum, offering insights into a key segment of the party's base.
This year's conference featured a diverse array of speakers, including Senator Ted Cruz, Iranian opposition leader Reza Pahlavi, and Eduardo and Flavio Bolsonaro. The timing of the poll is particularly relevant given the approaching midterm elections in the US, with Republicans aiming to maintain their congressional majorities.
President Donald Trump's approval ratings have seen a decline to 36 percent since his return to office in 2025, according to a Reuters/Ipsos survey. This decrease is attributed to factors such as the ongoing conflict in Iran and domestic economic concerns like rising gas prices.
President Trump's second term is set to conclude in 2028, and US law prohibits him from serving a third term, thereby opening the field for succession within the Republican Party.
Potential Candidates for 2028
The poll highlights two prominent figures who could be key contenders for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028:
JD VanceAs Vice President, Vance is a veteran and former single-term senator from Ohio. He is associated with a more isolationist wing of the 'Make America Great Again' (MAGA) movement and has generally opposed US involvement in foreign conflicts. Notably, he did support President Trump's decision to join Israel in strikes on Iran.
Marco RubioCurrently serving as Secretary of State, Rubio possesses a more extensive political background, having served as a senator for Florida from 2011 until his confirmation in 2025. He is generally perceived as more hawkish on regime change, particularly concerning Cuba.
It is worth noting that both Vance and Rubio were previously critical of Trump before joining his administration.
Historical Precedent: Shifting Tides at CPAC
CPAC typically refrains from polling participants about presidential preferences when a Republican holds the Oval Office. However, past straw polls, especially from 2017 to 2021 (during and after Trump's first term), indicate a significant shift within the Republican Party.
Before the 2016 election, figures like Mitt Romney and Rand Paul often won CPAC straw polls. Since Trump's initial campaign, he has consistently led these polls, including after his 2020 election defeat and through his re-election in 2024. Experts observe that the Republican Party has largely aligned with Trump's political views, marginalizing moderate voices.
It is important to remember that the CPAC straw poll is not always predictive; for instance, Senator Ted Cruz won the 2016 straw poll, with Trump finishing third.