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ESA and JAXA to Launch Ramses Mission for 2029 Apophis Asteroid Flyby Study

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ESA and JAXA to Study Asteroid Apophis During Historic 2029 Flyby

The European Space Agency (ESA) and the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA) are collaborating on the Ramses mission to observe asteroid Apophis during its close flyby of Earth in 2029. The mission aims to study the asteroid's response to Earth's gravitational forces, with data intended to inform planetary defense strategies.

The 2029 Apophis Flyby

On April 13, 2029, the asteroid Apophis will pass close to Earth. The distance of closest approach is reported as approximately 32,000 kilometers (about 20,000 miles), which is roughly one-tenth the distance between Earth and the Moon.

  • The asteroid, discovered in 2004, is approximately 375 meters in diameter.
  • Initial observations in 2004 calculated a 2.7% probability of an Earth impact in 2029. Subsequent radar tracking in 2021 eliminated any impact possibility for at least the next 100 years.
  • Its trajectory has been altered over time by the Yarkovsky effect, a force caused by thermal radiation.
  • Following the 2029 flyby, the asteroid's orbital period around the Sun is predicted to change from approximately 11 months to about 14 months.

ESA estimates an asteroid of this size passes this close to Earth once every 5,000 to 10,000 years.

Scientific Objectives and Predicted Effects

The close approach provides a unique opportunity to study how an asteroid responds to strong gravitational forces.

Earth's tidal forces are expected to stretch and reshape the asteroid unevenly during the flyby, with the strongest effects occurring within hours of closest approach. The gravitational imbalance may alter the asteroid's rotation and cause surface material to shift, potentially exposing subsurface material. One model suggests roughly 1% of the asteroid's surface could be resurfaced.

Patrick Michel, a planetary scientist at the French National Centre for Scientific Research (CNRS), stated that observing this natural interaction will provide insights into the behavior of small celestial bodies under gravitational stress.

The Ramses Mission and International Collaboration

The Ramses (Rapid Apophis Mission for Space Safety) mission is a joint project between ESA and JAXA.

  • The mission aims to reach Apophis before its closest approach to Earth to observe the effects of the flyby.
  • JAXA is scheduled to launch the Ramses spacecraft using its H3 rocket and will provide a thermal infrared imager, leveraging technology from its earlier Hayabusa2 mission.
  • ESA will contribute scientific expertise in mission planning and execution.

Fujimoto Masaki, Director General of the JAXA Institute of Space and Astronautical Science, confirmed the mission involves close cooperation with ESA’s Space Safety Program.

Other Planned Observations

In addition to the Ramses mission, NASA's OSIRIS-APEX spacecraft is planned to arrive at Apophis shortly after its closest pass to Earth to study changes to the asteroid's surface and structure.

Visibility and Planetary Defense Context

During its flyby, Apophis may be visible to the naked eye from parts of Europe, Africa, and Asia, though ground-based optical telescopes will lose visibility as the asteroid approaches the Sun.

Data collected by the Ramses and OSIRIS-APEX missions are expected to contribute to the understanding of asteroid deflection techniques, such as kinetic impact strategies, for planetary defense.