A comprehensive study by the Australian National University's National Security College indicates a significant increase in national security concerns among Australians, with a majority perceiving multiple threats and expressing doubts about the nation's preparedness to address them. The research, conducted over two years, highlights a broad range of worries from cyber threats and economic crises to the potential for military conflict and terrorist attacks, alongside a desire for more government information and a focus on community strength.
ANU Study Reveals Deepening National Security Worries
Study Methodology and Scope
The National Security College at the Australian National University (ANU) conducted an extensive consultation over a two-year period, between November 2024 and February 2026. This initiative involved three waves of opinion surveys with more than 20,000 adult Australians, supplemented by eight focus groups and nearly 500 interviews across urban, rural, and remote areas of the country.
Evolving Public Concerns Regarding National Security
Surveys revealed a notable increase in public worry about national security. The proportion of Australians expressing concern rose from a minority in November 2024 to a two-thirds majority by February 2026. This increase was particularly pronounced among 18 to 24-year-olds, with concern in this demographic rising from 22% to 55% during the same period.
Between 72% and 78% of Australians identified cyber threats, AI-enabled attacks, terrorism, violent extremism, economic crisis, supply-chain disruption, disinformation, foreign interference, and the failure of the global rules-based order as serious concerns for the next decade.
A significant majority, between 85% and 89% of respondents in July 2025, considered climate change impacts, AI-enabled attacks, disinformation, foreign interference, economic crisis, and critical supply disruption more likely than not to occur within five years. Most Australians anticipate multiple strategic shocks, including overseas war, economic crisis, and supply-chain failures, within the next five years.
Perception of Military Threats
The study found a heightened perception of military threats:
- Approximately 68% to 69% of Australians polled in July 2025 believed the country would be involved in an overseas military conflict within five years.
- Between 45% and 50% of respondents in July 2025 anticipated an onshore attack by a foreign military within five years.
- Of those who anticipated an attack on Australian soil, 43% expected "major consequences," and 36% predicted "catastrophic" outcomes.
While considered catastrophic, a foreign military attack was also rated as the least likely threat by some, though a significant minority still believed it could occur within five years.
Escalating Terrorism Concerns
Concerns about domestic terrorism increased significantly. Following events including the Bondi attack, the percentage of Australians rating terrorism as a serious concern rose from 55% in November 2024 to between 72% and 75% by February 2026.
Australia's government maintains a 'probable' terrorism threat level, indicating a greater than 50% chance of an attack or a plan for an attack within the next 12 months. The national spy agency, ASIO, noted a 'normalisation of provocative and inflammatory behaviours' and warned that Middle East conflicts could inspire attacks within Australia. ASIO indicated such attacks would most likely be conducted by lone perpetrators or small groups using simple, low-cost methods.
Perceived National Preparedness
Despite widespread concerns, less than 18% of Australians believed the nation was "very" or "fully" prepared for any of the 15 security risks presented in the survey. For two-thirds of the threats, over half the public felt Australia was "not prepared at all" or only "slightly prepared."
More than half of those surveyed believed Australia was "slightly prepared" or "not at all prepared" for a foreign military attack, severe economic crisis, critical infrastructure attack, or supply disruption.
An economic crisis was identified as the issue with the highest combined risk of likelihood and impact.
Government Communication and Community Engagement
A majority of Australians expressed a desire for more information from the government regarding security threats. Surveys indicated that 53% of Australians believed the government shared "too little" or "far too little" information, with only 4% believing too much information was shared. Focus groups acknowledged the difficulty for governments in communicating security threats without causing panic.
Despite perceived divisions, the study identified a spirit of community strength. "Safe and peaceful communities" was identified as the foremost national priority, preceding economic prosperity, democracy, or strengthening Australia's security. Following the Bondi attack, 71% of Australians agreed that all Australians could do more to foster peaceful and safe communities.
Professor Rory Medcalf, head of the National Security College, stated that the study's results indicate most Australians are concerned about national security and desire more information, suggesting that assumptions of Australian complacency in the evolving security landscape would be inaccurate. Current events, such as disruptions to global fuel supplies and rising prices linked to Middle East conflicts, were noted as potentially influencing these public sentiments.