US-Israel-Iran Conflict Escalates Amid Calls for Regime Change
Overview: Calls for Uprising and Military Action
On March 1, following a joint attack on Iran, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu urged the Iranian populace to overthrow their government. He stated that the U.S. and Israel would target numerous sites across Iran to weaken its power, encouraging Iranians to "take to the streets in your millions to finish the job." President Donald Trump reiterated this call, stating that this would likely be their only opportunity for generations to take over their government.
Background: Decades of Intensifying Tensions
The U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran is the result of a decades-long campaign led by Netanyahu and elements within Israel's intelligence, military, and political sectors. Trump's withdrawal from the 2015 nuclear deal and increased economic sanctions intensified after the October 7 attacks, evolving into open military operations against Iran with the stated goal of toppling the government in Tehran.
In January, widespread Iranian protests, initially driven by worsening economic conditions and currency collapse exacerbated by U.S.-led sanctions, shifted into violent riots.
Trump and Netanyahu issued public calls for an uprising. Iranian officials characterized the situation as an armed insurrection supported by Israel, with reports of organized cells launching attacks on police, mosques, and infrastructure. Former CIA Director Mike Pompeo claimed Mossad agents were involved in organizing the uprising. Iranian authorities suppressed the riots forcefully.
Evolving Rhetoric, Persistent Objectives
As the conflict progressed into its second week, Trump's focus shifted away from direct calls for Iranian liberation, indicating openness to a religious leader ruling Iran or a leader from within the current system. Netanyahu, however, continued to emphasize Israel's objective of dismantling the existing Iranian state, particularly after the assassination of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. On March 10, Netanyahu posted on X, addressing the "People of Iran" and stating, "In the coming days we will create the conditions for you to grasp your destiny."
Israel's Covert Operations in Iran
Israel has historically conducted covert operations within Iran, including assassinations, coercion, and psychological messaging, aimed at undermining the government. These efforts include recruiting individuals for influence operations and large-scale psychological operations via anti-government Persian-language media networks.
Iran's Covert Operations Targeting Israel
Drop Site News obtained internal Iranian intelligence briefing summaries, photos, and other materials detailing secret influence operations targeting Israeli citizens. Iranian intelligence has reportedly conducted small-scale active measures over the past three years to promote social division in Israel and cultivate relationships with individual Israeli citizens. Two Iranian officials, one an intelligence operative involved in the program, discussed these operations under anonymity, describing them as "reciprocal measures."
Over the past two years, approximately three dozen Israeli citizens have been arrested on charges of espionage and influence operations for the Iranian government, primarily involving surveillance and vandalism, with some cases escalating to attempted violence. In 2025, Israel observed a 400% increase in suspected and confirmed cases of Israelis performing espionage for Iranian intelligence, according to the Dor Moriah Analytical Center.
The Israeli government has implemented measures to control information during the current conflict, requiring national security reports to be reviewed by a military censor and suppressing footage of Iranian missile strikes.
Early Stages and Strategic Responses
Internal Iranian materials indicate that the Ministry of Intelligence (MOIS) recruited individuals living in Israel to disseminate political messages in public spaces, including banners and placards with domestic political messages and stylized insignia from the Islamic Republic. These contacts span from the 2023 judicial reform protests in Israel through the military operations in the Gaza Strip. The materials include social media groups established by MOIS agents, intelligence reports, operational summaries, and photographs of propaganda.
The Iranian influence campaign reportedly began as retaliatory actions following the 2022 protests in Iran after the death of Mahsa Amini. Iranian intelligence operatives concluded that some violence in these protests was encouraged by Israeli operatives. Iranian intelligence agents then reportedly studied alleged Israeli tactics to expand their targeting of Israeli citizens for recruitment.
Campaigns and Infiltrations
Evidence suggests Iran's role in the "No Voice" campaign during Israel's judicial reform protests. The MOIS also conducted other limited activities, such as displaying anti-government messages in public spaces and photographing public sites. They later sought to infiltrate Israeli demonstrations calling for a deal with Hamas for the return of Israeli captives.
MOIS created custom designs for assets to distribute, which included discretely embedded MOIS logos or stylized depictions of Qassem Soleimani. Videos show demonstrators holding these signs and wearing T-shirts with similar imagery. Following instances of alleged police brutality, Iranian assets were instructed to promote videos identifying specific Israeli police officers to generate public criticism.
Some Israelis recruited for these operations reportedly believed they were being paid by Jewish Americans concerned about the captives or critical of the Netanyahu government, with payments made in cryptocurrency. Tasks escalated from printing leaflets to organizing rallies.
Escalation to Violent Recruitment and Actions
While Iranian operations are described as modest compared to Israel's capabilities within Iran, Iranian infiltration in Israel has become a notable issue. For example, Yosef Ein Eli (23) was arrested in September for allegedly providing handlers in Iran with information on hotels and tourist sites for $3,000 in cryptocurrency. Israeli authorities claim Eli was assigned further tasks, including arson attacks, surveillance of political figures, and identifying IDF soldiers.
Since 2024, Israel has issued nearly three dozen indictments against Israelis accused of espionage for Iran. Israeli officials have urged prosecutors to expedite convictions and sentencing as a deterrent. A national advertising campaign warned citizens against spying for Iran.
The Broadening Network of Iranian Agents
The Dor Moriah Analytics Center reported a shift in Iranian recruitment, with those arrested now including "mainstream Israelis" such as active-duty military personnel, students, and ideologically motivated citizens, not solely those acting for financial gain. Jewish citizens reportedly constitute the majority of Iran's agent network. Examples include: Druze community members, individuals ideologically opposed to Zionism (e.g., an American-Israeli from the Satmar Hasidic sect), and reservists transmitting photos of the Iron Dome system.
A network of Jewish immigrants from Azerbaijan allegedly surveilled military bases, which was reportedly linked to a Hezbollah drone strike that killed four soldiers. In another case, an Israeli man accused of multiple missions for Iran was also accused of attempting to assassinate an Israeli scientist for a promised $100,000, being apprehended while attempting to retrieve a handgun for the murder.
Persistent Clandestine Warfare and Future Outlook
Hints suggest the clandestine conflict between Israel and Iran persists during the current war, including online rumor dissemination and threats of future uprisings. The Iranian government attributes widespread violence during January protests in Iran, which killed thousands, to Israeli covert operations. A Farsi-language site, attributed by some to Mossad, posted messages encouraging protests, later deleted.
Israeli officials have also acknowledged foreign involvement in Iranian protests, with former chief of the Israeli Military Intelligence Directorate, Maj. Gen. Tamir Hayman, stating, "There is currently a very significant U.S. influence operation." Four days before the U.S. attack on Iran began, the CIA issued a Farsi-language public communication seeking intelligence from Iranians via encrypted channels.
With increasing instability, global economic shock, and ongoing Iranian missile and drone strikes, Trump has indicated a desire to conclude the war. Internal intelligence assessments suggest the Iranian government is unlikely to be overthrown by force alone. Netanyahu stated on March 12 that while military attacks had weakened Iran, "ultimately, a regime is ousted from within." Iranian officials stated their willingness to discuss clandestine efforts in Israel as an "intentional demonstration" of their capability to influence citizens on the Israeli side and conduct reciprocal actions.