America's Divided Confidence: A Deep Dive into Election Security and Public Trust

A comprehensive analysis of recent national polling reveals stark partisan divides on election integrity, voter access, and the role of the National Guard—while overall confidence in the electoral system hits a five-year low.

National Guard at Polling Places: A Nation Divided

46% of Americans support deploying the National Guard to monitor polling places, while 54% oppose it.

A March 2026 NPR/PBS News/Marist poll of 1,591 adults reveals a deeply polarized nation on this issue. Approximately 75% of Republicans support the proposal, while roughly 75% of Democrats oppose it.

Federal law currently prohibits armed personnel at voting locations. However, state governors retain legal authority to deploy the National Guard for election-related tasks, such as cybersecurity support.

Political context matters. Election law professor Michael Morley of Florida State University noted that current events—including a conflict with Iran and a recent terrorist bombing attempt in New York—could influence public opinion. Former President Trump had indicated a desire to deploy Guard members to seize election equipment in 2020.

Voter Confidence: A Five-Year Low

Two-thirds of Americans are confident their state or local government will conduct fair and accurate elections—a 10-percentage-point decline from before the 2024 election.

This marks the lowest confidence level since the poll began in 2020.

Confidence levels varied dramatically by political affiliation:

• Democrats: Confidence decreased by 16 percentage points
• Independents: Confidence decreased by 11 percentage points
• Republicans: Confidence increased by 3 percentage points (within the poll's margin of error)

Paul Gronke, an election administration expert at Reed College, observed a troubling shift: "This decline was previously largely confined to Republicans after the 2020 election. Now, we're seeing it across the political spectrum."

Perceived Threats: What Americans Fear Most

The March 2026 poll asked Americans to identify the biggest threats to election integrity:

More than 8 in 10 Americans anticipate that artificial intelligence will contribute to the spread of misinformation about voting. An April 2025 survey found that 80% of Americans believe AI will eliminate more jobs than it creates.

Voter Access vs. Eligibility: A Stable Divide

Nearly 6 in 10 respondents prioritize ensuring everyone who wants to vote can do so, while 41% prioritize preventing ineligible individuals from voting.

This division has remained relatively stable since 2021.

Concerns about eligible voters being turned away have surged. This concern increased to 58% in March 2026—a 16-percentage-point increase since January 2020. The concern is notably higher among:

• Democrats: Nearly three-quarters express concern
• Voters under 30: Three-quarters express concern

The SAVE America Act: Controversy Over Citizenship Requirements

The SAVE America Act, which passed the House along party lines, would require proof of citizenship—such as a birth certificate or passport—to register to vote in federal elections. Former President Trump has expanded the proposed scope to include a ban on mail-in ballots for most voters.

Arguments For and Against

Proponents argue the measure would prevent voter fraud. Critics argue it could disenfranchise millions of Americans lacking easy access to such documents.

Expert Warnings

A similar law in Kansas prevented 30,000 eligible citizens from registering to vote before being paused by a federal court.

— Rick Hasen, director of the Safeguarding Democracy Project at UCLA School of Law

Tammy Patrick, CEO of The Election Center, cited significant difficulties experienced in Arizona with a similar requirement, which took years to refine specific logistics.

Populations potentially most affected include:

• Older Americans
• Women with name changes
• Indigenous people
• Individuals with disabilities
• Young voters

The Reality of Voter Fraud

Documented cases of noncitizen voter fraud are extremely rare. Hasen noted that in 2016, only 30 possible cases were documented nationwide. David Becker, executive director of the Center for Election Innovation & Research, stated that federal investigations have found minimal evidence of widespread fraud.

Where Republicans Get Their Information

A national survey by the Center for Transparent and Trusted Elections at UC San Diego found that most Republicans do not rely solely on Trump for information regarding election fairness. The survey showed that 30% consult Trump, while others rely on local and state election officials, local TV news, and family members.

Voter ID Requirements: Broad Public Support

An April 2025 NPR/PBS News/Marist poll found:

• 74% of Americans favor requiring government-issued photo ID to vote
• 65% support requiring a passport or birth certificate to register

Voices from Pennsylvania: On-the-Ground Perspectives

NPR conducted interviews across two swing congressional districts in Pennsylvania (the 10th and 7th) ahead of the midterms.

Republicans Skeptical of Fraud Claims

Most Republicans interviewed disagreed with Trump's claim that Democrats plan to cheat in upcoming elections, indicating that Democrats could win elections fairly and dismissing the concept of widespread voter fraud.

"It's too hard to really pull something off that would be considered fraud."
— Richard Cline, 69, a preacher from Harrisburg

Norine Haertsch shared that her daughter-in-law, who works at York County's Office of Elections and Voter Registration, changed her view on election fraud, stating: "There's no way they can cheat."

A Different View

Some Republicans expressed belief in election cheating. Valerie Schock, a poll worker in Carlisle, Pa., reported encountering voters who could not speak or write English, leading her to suspect non-citizenship, though she lacked proof. Schock supports the SAVE America Act.

Democratic Concerns

Democrats interviewed by NPR suggested Trump's accusations serve as a justification for potential intervention in elections if Republicans face losses.

"It's a lie and a pretext for election interference."
— Thomas Fink, 79, vice president of the Camp Hill Borough Council

White House Response

The White House responded by stating the president seeks full confidence in election administration, advocating for photo ID requirements and accurate voter rolls free of non-citizens. White House spokeswoman Abigail Jackson criticized what she termed "Blue Anon conspiracies."

Younger Republicans

Harrison Smetana, president of the Lehigh University College Republicans, indicated that election integrity and Trump's 2020 fraud claims are not a primary discussion topic among younger Republicans.

Economic Strain and the Midterm Outlook

An April 2025 NPR/PBS News/Marist poll of 1,322 respondents found:

81% said gas prices strain household budgets

• 63% attribute the rise in gas prices to President Trump
• Trump's overall approval: 37% approve, 59% disapprove; 51% strongly disapprove
• 35% approve of Trump's handling of the economy
• 56% said their area is not affordable

Congressional Ballot Test

On the congressional ballot test:

• 53% of registered voters would support the Democratic candidate
• 44% would support the Republican candidate
• Democratic enthusiasm: 61% vs. 53% for Republicans

Trump's Job Approval Decline

Former President Trump's job approval rating in March 2026 was 38%, consistent with a rating received in February.

Approval declined among many key groups:

• Southern voters
• Low-income earners
• White men without college degrees
• Millennials, men, and parents
• Rural voters, white evangelical Christians
• Crossover voters

Among Republicans, approval declined from 88% in February 2025 to 81%.

Iran Conflict and Foreign Policy

An April 2025 poll found:

• Approval of Trump's handling of Iran: 33%
• 61% said military action in Iran has done more harm than good
• 62% said Trump's decisions weakened the U.S. globally

Poll Methodology

March 2026 Poll: NPR/PBS News/Marist, conducted March 2-4, 2026, surveying 1,591 U.S. adults by phone, text, and online.

April 2025 Poll: NPR/PBS News/Marist, conducted April 27-30, 2025, among 1,322 respondents. Margin of error: +/- 3.1 percentage points. Data collected via live caller, text, and online.