NASA's Van Allen Probe A Nears Earth Re-entry

NASA's Van Allen Probe A is anticipated to re-enter Earth's atmosphere nearly 14 years post-launch.
This spacecraft, along with its twin Van Allen Probe B, operated from 2012 to 2019, studying the Van Allen belts—regions of charged particles trapped by Earth's magnetic field. These belts are crucial for shielding Earth from harmful cosmic radiation, solar storms, and solar wind.

Projected Re-entry Details

The U.S. Space Force projects the approximately 1,323-pound spacecraft to re-enter the atmosphere around 7:45 p.m. EDT on March 10, 2026, with a 24-hour uncertainty. NASA expects most of the spacecraft to disintegrate during re-entry, with some components potentially surviving.

The risk of harm to individuals on Earth is estimated at 1 in 4,200.

Monitoring of the re-entry will continue by NASA and Space Force.

Mission Overview and Discoveries

The Van Allen Probes A and B were launched on August 30, 2012. Designed for a two-year mission, they collected data on Earth’s radiation belts for almost seven years until their mission concluded in 2019 due to fuel depletion, which prevented proper orientation towards the Sun. These were the first spacecraft engineered to operate and gather data for extended periods within the radiation belts, an area typically avoided by most spacecraft and astronaut missions due to damaging radiation.

Managed and operated by the Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Lab, the mission yielded several significant discoveries. These include the first data confirming a transient third radiation belt that can form during intense solar activity.

Accelerated Re-entry Timeline

Initially, the re-entry for Van Allen Probe A was predicted for 2034. However, a more active-than-expected current solar cycle, reaching its solar maximum in 2024, has caused intense space weather events. These conditions increased atmospheric drag on the spacecraft, accelerating its re-entry to the current 2026 estimate.

Lasting Impact of Data

Data from the Van Allen Probes continues to be instrumental in understanding space weather and its impacts. Scientists utilize archived mission data to study Earth’s radiation belts, which is vital for forecasting how solar activity affects satellites, astronauts, and Earth-based systems like communications, navigation, and power grids. The Van Allen Probes' observations contributed to improved forecasts of space weather events.

Van Allen Probe B

Van Allen Probe B is not expected to re-enter Earth’s atmosphere before 2030.