JWST Confirms Asteroid 2024 YR4 Will Miss Moon in 2032

New observations from the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) have confirmed that asteroid 2024 YR4 will not impact the Moon in 2032. NASA had previously estimated a 4.3% probability of a lunar collision, but refined orbital data now indicates a zero chance. The asteroid is projected to pass approximately 13,200 miles (21,200 kilometers) from the Moon's surface on December 22, 2032.

Refined orbital data from JWST observations now indicates a zero chance of asteroid 2024 YR4 impacting the Moon in 2032.

Precise Trajectory and Observational Feat

Data collected by the JWST on February 18 and 26 allowed NASA astronomers, including experts from the Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory, to update previous trajectory estimates. This new data demonstrated that the asteroid's path would clear the Moon by a substantial margin. The projected flyby distance of 13,200 miles (21,200 kilometers) is closer than some artificial satellites orbit Earth. During its 2032 close approach, asteroid 2024 YR4 will also miss Earth by hundreds of thousands of miles.

The asteroid had been unobservable from both Earth and space-based observatories since spring 2025 until its detection by JWST's near-infrared camera in February. NASA attributed these latest observations to JWST's extreme sensitivity, which pushed the telescope to its operational limits. Representatives from the European Space Agency (ESA) also noted the significant challenge involved in using JWST to track an object millions of kilometers away.

Using JWST to track an object millions of kilometers away pushed the telescope to its operational limits due to its extreme sensitivity.

Discovery and Characteristics

Asteroid 2024 YR4 was initially discovered in late 2024 by the Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System (ATLAS) network in Chile. Subsequent observations indicated its diameter is approximately 200 feet (60 meters), with some estimates ranging between 174 and 220 feet (53 to 67 meters).

Initial assessments after its discovery in early 2025 had suggested a slight possibility of an Earth impact, with estimates peaking at 3.1%. This potential Earth collision scenario was subsequently ruled out, though uncertainty regarding a lunar impact persisted longer until the recent JWST observations.

Standard Practice: Refining Asteroid Trajectories

The process of refining asteroid trajectories and ruling out potential impact risks is consistent with previous cases in asteroid observations. For example, asteroid Apophis, discovered in 2004, initially had projections that suggested a slight chance of Earth impact in 2029 or 2036. Subsequent observations in 2013 eliminated these possibilities.