Steve Toth Wins Republican Nomination for Texas' 2nd Congressional District, Defeating Incumbent Dan Crenshaw

State Representative Steve Toth has won the Republican nomination for Texas’ 2nd Congressional District, defeating four-term incumbent U.S. Representative Dan Crenshaw. Toth declared victory following primary results that indicated a lead, marking the first instance of an incumbent U.S. Representative losing a renomination bid in the current election cycle.

Election Outcome

Steve Toth secured the Republican nomination for Texas’ 2nd Congressional District, preventing incumbent Dan Crenshaw from advancing to the general election. This outcome represents a shift from previous primary elections where Crenshaw had won by significant margins.

Crenshaw had outspent Toth in the campaign, raising over $1.3 million more than his challenger.

Key Candidates and Campaigns

Steve Toth

Toth, a State Representative, campaigned from a conservative stance, emphasizing alignment with the "MAGA" movement. He asserted that Crenshaw's foreign policy and immigration views did not adequately align with the movement. Toth received support from U.S. Senator Ted Cruz and organizations such as Turning Point Action. He also referenced past endorsements from former President Donald Trump in previous election bids.

Dan Crenshaw

Incumbent Dan Crenshaw, serving his fourth term, ran without the endorsement of former President Trump in this primary. During his re-election campaign, Crenshaw sought to closely associate himself with Trump, emphasizing support for Trump's policies and refuting claims that he had abandoned the "America First Agenda."

Candidate Backgrounds

Steve Toth

Toth is recognized as a conservative member within the Texas Republican Party. He is an ordained pastor and former megachurch pastor who also operates a local business. He has served in the Texas Legislature for over a decade. In 2024, he was among four Texas House Republicans who faced censure for campaigning against other party members. Toth had previously challenged incumbents, including an unsuccessful attempt to unseat former Representative Kevin Brady in Texas’ 8th District in 2016.

Dan Crenshaw

Crenshaw, first elected in 2018, is a former Navy SEAL. He lost his right eye during combat in Afghanistan and completed two additional overseas deployments after his injury. His policy priorities have included opposing federal funding for gender-affirming care and addressing Mexican cartels. He received endorsements from organizations such as the National Rifle Association.

Political Context and Divergences

The primary race focused on which candidate demonstrated a stronger alignment with former President Donald Trump.

Crenshaw has maintained a complex relationship with the conservative faction of his party. He has had disagreements with some Republican allies and the MAGA movement on issues such as support for aid for Ukraine, the resettlement of Afghan allies, and his vote to certify the 2020 presidential election results. Crenshaw has also publicly criticized members of his party, referring to some as "grifters" and "performance artists."

District Information and Future Outlook

Texas’ 2nd Congressional District is located north of Houston. The district underwent minor alterations during Republican-led mid-decade redistricting, which drew a portion of Toth’s state House seat into the 2nd District.

The seat is expected to remain strongly Republican in the general election. Toth is anticipated to be favored against Democrat businessman Shaun Finnie, who ran unopposed in his primary.