Kremlin Surprised by US-Israeli Actions Against Iran: New Narratives Emerge
US and Israeli actions against Iran, a long-time ally of Russia that aided Moscow in sanctions circumvention and drone supply, surprised the Kremlin. Following these events, three main narratives emerged among Russian channels and speakers:
- Russia did not support its allies.
- Donald Trump betrayed Russia.
- Russia could be the next target.
Putin's statements following the death of Ayatollah Khamenei, made without accusing specific forces, received criticism. Commentators, including Americans, Britons, and Ukrainians, suggested Russia might be targeted next.
Oleksiy Arestovych, a Ukrainian blogger and former adviser, remarked that the Israeli-US attack on Iran highlighted a significant weakness within Russia, China, and the BRICS alliance. This assessment countered recent Kremlin efforts to portray BRICS and the Global South as a strong, unified front.
Russian Reactions and Alliances
Arestovych noted that Russia and China condemned the killing of Iran's leader without naming Donald Trump as the perpetrator, maintaining him as a 'respected partner.' He concluded that the Global South, when tested, appeared more as a group of insecure nations rather than a united front.
Russian propagandists expressed shock regarding the attack by Donald Trump on Iran, which was a key weapons supplier to Russia. Analysts suggest Russia maintained close ties with the Iranian regime partly because sanctions on Iran helped keep oil prices high, benefiting Moscow. A potential fall of the Iranian regime and subsequent lifting of sanctions could introduce more Iranian oil to the market, leading to a drop in prices detrimental to Russia.
Iran was a crucial ally for Russia, providing Shahed UAVs and assisting in localizing their production, alongside offering military specialists for training. Consequently, the aerial attacks on Iran were perceived negatively in Russia.
Propagandists' Statements
A popular propaganda Telegram channel, 'Notes of a Veteran,' described figures it previously called 'respected partners,' such as Donald Trump and Marco Rubio, in derogatory terms. The channel criticized what it perceived as a lack of coordination in their statements regarding the attacks.
In response to the attack, propagandists utilized arguments concerning morality, international law, and sovereignty. Russian television presenter Olga Skabeyeva stated that President Putin described Khamenei's death as 'a cynical murder in violation of all norms of human morality and international law,' calling it 'lawlessness.'
Disappointment in Trump was also evident, as many Russian propagandists had viewed him as pro-Russian. Writer and blogger Zakhar Prilepin criticized those who believed in 'American-Russian friendship' after past events.
Concerns for Russia's Future
Prilepin also expressed concerns that Russia was not supporting Iran, just as it had not supported Venezuela previously, suggesting Cuba might be next. He concluded that Russia itself could become a future target.
Alexander Dugin, an ideologist of Putin’s regime, echoed these forecasts, suggesting Russia could be Trump's next target. Dugin wrote that Trump's negotiations with Maduro and Iran were a tactic to buy time for operations. He drew parallels to current negotiations with Russia, concluding that the war in Ukraine must continue to prevent a similar outcome for Putin as that which occurred with Khamenei.
Kremlin's chief propagandist Vladimir Solovyov also commented, stating that 'There are no rules left in the world, and it is entering a period of great wars.'