Xi-Trump Meeting Amid Domestic Challenges: A Pivot Point for China
President Xi Jinping is scheduled to meet U.S. President Donald Trump in Beijing this week. The meeting occurs as China confronts multiple domestic challenges, including economic difficulties among its youth and significant restructuring of its political succession system.
Domestic Economic Pressures on Chinese Youth
"An extreme act of paternalism" — Sinologist Geremie Barmé on the state's intervention regarding youth work culture.
China's Ministry of State Security issued a statement criticizing the "lying flat" (tang ping) phenomenon, in which some young people choose to disengage from the workforce. The ministry stated that "anti-China forces" are influencing youth to abandon work and career ambitions. President Xi first warned against this trend in 2021, urging young people to "eat bitterness."
Chinese youth face high unemployment. The official youth unemployment rate was 16.1% in 2024. China stopped publishing youth unemployment statistics after the rate exceeded 20% in 2023, resuming publication five months later with a lower figure.
Additional factors include:
- A property market decline since 2020
- A post-COVID economic slowdown
- A prevalent "996" work culture (working 9 a.m. to 9 p.m., six days per week)
Some young people have returned to live with their parents, a phenomenon known locally as "kenlaozu" or "feeding off the oldies." Reports indicate migrant workers are also returning to rural areas as urban job opportunities diminish.
Steve Tsang of the SOAS China Institute noted: "When the economy delivered rewards, working under pressure made sense, but now some youth question the point of working very hard."
Military Purges
Since 2022, the Chinese military has dismissed over 100 senior officers of the People's Liberation Army (PLA). This includes two former defense ministers who were sentenced to death on bribery charges.
Political Succession System Changes
"The concentration of authority in one individual creates a strategic vulnerability concerning his eventual exit."
Under Xi Jinping, China's leadership succession system has undergone notable changes:
- In 2018, presidential term limits were removed.
- In 2022, Xi secured a third term as party leader and appointed loyalists to senior positions without publicly designating a successor.
Historically, China's leadership transitions followed a predictable pattern: potential successors were identified early, promoted to top leadership tiers in their late 50s or early 60s, and given credentials through party management, government administration, and military exposure. This signaling process has largely disappeared under Xi, with no clear understudy being positioned through the traditional ladder.
China's annual "Two Sessions" political gatherings typically offer personnel signals regarding succession. Key indicators would include:
- Elevation of any leader under 65 to a powerful cross-sector role such as executive vice-premier
- Appointments favoring officials in their late 60s or close to Xi's generation, indicating consolidation rather than transition planning
- Exposure of younger leaders to party internal machinery or military structures
Policy Direction and Governance
The policy messaging during the Two Sessions emphasizes artificial intelligence, industrial upgrading, and technological self-reliance. This approach reflects confidence in central direction and state coordination, underscoring a governance style that relies on centralized leadership executing grand strategy.
According to analysts, while there is no visible succession crisis in China currently, the concentration of authority in one individual creates a strategic vulnerability concerning his eventual exit. The system constructed after Mao Zedong aimed to reduce this risk through institutional norms and preparation.
Observers including investors, military planners, foreign governments, and domestic elites note that Xi's prioritization of control over predictability has strengthened his current authority but has left the post-Xi path less defined.
Expert Commentary
Geremie Barmé (Sinologist) characterized the regime's attitude as "paranoid" and predicted paranoia will increase as Xi ages, describing the state security intervention regarding youth as "extraordinarily insulting," stating the regime believes youth are "too stupid to lie flat."