The latest Emerson College Polling/Nexstar Media survey indicates tight contests in both Democratic and Republican U.S. Senate primary races in Texas, with potential runoffs. The results highlight the competitive nature of these key elections.
Democratic Primary Overview
State Representative James Talarico holds a narrow lead over U.S. Representative Jasmine Crockett, with 52% to 47% support among likely Democratic primary voters.
This result falls within the survey's margin of error, indicating an exceptionally close race.
Key demographic breakdowns reveal distinct patterns of support:
- Talarico leads among early voters (58% to 41%), white voters (71% to 29%), Hispanic voters (60% to 39%), and men (58% to 41%).
- Crockett leads among Election Day voters (50% to 39%), female voters (51% to 48%), and dominates among Black voters (80% to 18%).
- Regarding age, voters under 40 favor Talarico (54% to 44%). Voters aged 40-60 are evenly split (50% Talarico, 49% Crockett), while voters over 70 support Talarico (55% to 42%).
Republican Primary Overview
In the Republican primary, Attorney General Ken Paxton leads with 40% support. Incumbent Senator John Cornyn follows at 36%, and Representative Wesley Hunt garners 17%.
These figures suggest a high likelihood of a runoff election between Paxton and Cornyn, as no candidate appears poised to secure over 50% of the vote.
Support for the Republican candidates varies across key demographics and voting behaviors:
- Cornyn leads among early voters (38% to 34%), college-educated voters (43% to 32%), and voters over 70 (52% to 35%).
- Paxton leads among likely Election Day voters (44% to 32%), voters under 50 (38% to 22%), and voters in their 50s and 60s (44% to 30%).
- Paxton garners stronger support from voters who supported Donald Trump in 2024 (46% to 33% over Cornyn). Conversely, Cornyn performs better among voters who supported other candidates in 2024 (49% to 8% over Paxton).