Western Australia's population is projected to reach 4 million by 2043, an increase of one million people from its expected 3 million total at the end of 2024.
This forecast, detailed in a report by the Bankwest Curtin Economics Centre (BCEC), indicates that sustained growth could be constrained by an ongoing housing shortage.
Housing Supply Concerns
Professor Alan Duncan, BCEC director, stated that the state's housing completions are falling short of the National Accord target of 24,000 to 25,000 new properties annually. In the past year, WA completed just over 22,000 properties, with the last time hitting near 24,000 being in 2017.
Duncan clarified that the housing shortage is primarily due to historical undersupply rather than recent migration increases.
New Population Modelling
The BCEC report utilized new modelling that examined the relationship between labor markets, economics, and housing availability. This approach aims to provide a realistic scale of expected growth to facilitate proactive infrastructure planning.
Key findings from the new modelling include:
- A direct correlation between population growth and factors such as iron ore prices and mining investment.
- An increased demand for labor in the mining industry typically results in a boost in migration approximately 12 to 18 months later.
- A 10 percent increase in the iron ore price corresponds to an additional 283 interstate migrants every three months.
This indicates the strong interconnectedness of the mining sector with other industries throughout the state.
Interstate Migration Dynamics
The report noted that Queensland contributes a significant number of interstate migrants to WA, comparable to Victoria and New South Wales, relative to its population size. WA and Queensland are observed to be competing for skilled labor, particularly in the mining and construction sectors.
This competition is anticipated to intensify leading up to the 2032 Brisbane Olympics, which could potentially reverse the net flow of migrants from Queensland to WA.
Securing a sufficient workforce, especially in construction, is identified as a critical need to maintain the pace of development.
Population Distribution
Current data indicates that 80.6 percent of Western Australia's population resides in the Greater Perth area, with 19 percent living in regional areas. The metropolitan area experienced a 2.4 percent growth in the last year, which is double the growth rate of WA's regional areas.