Brisbane Housing Market: Rising Values, Tight Supply, and Policy Responses

Brisbane's housing market is characterized by rising property values, low rental vacancy rates, and a shortage of affordable housing, particularly for low-income earners.

Market Conditions

Property Values

Brisbane's median home value reached approximately $1.13 million in May, reflecting a 0.9% monthly increase, according to property research firm Cotality. Unit prices grew by 1.3% in the same month, while house prices grew by 0.8%, with the median unit price exceeding $880,000. Annual growth for Brisbane property values was recorded at 14.5%, equating to an approximate increase of $131,000 over the year.

Data from Proptrack showed Brisbane's average house price at $1,046,000 in February, representing a 15.9% year-on-year increase. REA Group senior economist Eleanor Creagh stated that the Queensland market is particularly constrained, with stock levels below historical averages. Cotality's head of research, Tim Lawless, noted that while Brisbane's home prices were rising at approximately double the national pace, there were signs of momentum slowing.

Regional areas surrounding Brisbane recorded significant growth. Beaudesert (24.7%) and Loganlea (24.1%) recorded the highest annual growth. Annual home price growth reached 19.7% in Ipswich, 19% in Logan, and 18.2% in Toowoomba.

Market Comparisons

Sydney's median home value fell 0.9% to over $1.28 million, making it 14% more expensive than Brisbane. Melbourne's median price fell 0.8% to over $810,000. Brisbane has transitioned to being considered among the less affordable markets nationally.

Market Outlook

CBA's Trent Saunders provided data showing median time on market has increased in Brisbane and Perth. Brisbane's seasonally adjusted median time on market increased from 20 days to 29 days in May. Saunders stated that housing market conditions were losing momentum before the federal Budget, and the slowdown has accelerated since changes to negative gearing and the capital gains tax discount were announced.

KPMG's residential property outlook forecasted house price growth of 10.9% for the current year and 8.9% in 2027. Unit prices were projected to increase by 7.8% this year and 4.9% next year. Dr. Brendan Rynne, KPMG's chief economist, stated that while growth was expected to moderate due to affordability constraints, the second half of the previous year saw accelerated growth in strong markets like Perth and Brisbane.

Forecasts suggest that the property market will not maintain the same level of price growth. Potential interest rate adjustments are cited as a factor that could moderate the market, though a significant decline in values is not anticipated due to low market supply and continued population growth.

Rental Market

Rent Increases

Brisbane recorded the steepest quarterly rent increase among Australian capital cities, according to Domain data. In the December quarter, median house rents increased to $670 per week, while unit rents rose to $650 per week. The 3.1% rise surpassed increases in other capital cities, including Hobart (1.7%), Sydney (1.3%), and Canberra (1.4%).

Over 12 months, rents in Brisbane rose 6.7% for houses and 6.2% for units, exceeding the national average of 5.2%. Dr. Nicola Powell, Domain's chief of research, characterized Brisbane's change as a "re-acceleration" in rent growth.

Vacancy Rates

Brisbane's rental vacancy rate reached 0.9% in December, considerably below the 2.6% to 3.5% range considered a healthy market by the Real Estate Institute of Queensland. The apartment market vacancy rate was 1.4%, with houses at 2.4%.

Tenant Challenges

Anglicare Southern Queensland's Rental Affordability Snapshot examined approximately 3,000 rental listings in Brisbane from a weekend in March. Using the 30/40 model (housing cost exceeding 30% of income for the bottom 40% of earners), only 9 rentals (0.3%) were affordable for income support recipients, down from 20 in 2025. For minimum wage earners, 26 rentals (0.87%) were affordable, down from 75 in 2025. Total available rentals decreased by approximately 12% compared to the previous year.

Anglicare Southern Queensland CEO Sue Cooke stated that the organization is supporting increasing numbers of struggling individuals and families. Families report skipping meals, working multiple jobs, and experiencing overcrowding. Tenants Queensland CEO Penny Carr noted that rent increases are a frequent issue reported by tenants, with existing tenancies facing consecutive rent increases that significantly exceed the Consumer Price Index.

Student Accommodation

University students in Brisbane are facing challenges in the private rental market. According to reports, students are opting for purpose-built student accommodation (PBSA) to navigate the competitive rental market. Sue Fergusson, Queensland operations manager for Scape (a PBSA provider), attributes increased demand to Brisbane's low rental vacancy rates and rebounding university enrollment post-pandemic.

Over 3,500 new PBSA beds are planned for Brisbane. Adele Lausberg, executive director of student accommodation at the Property Council of Australia, noted that Brisbane lags behind Sydney and Melbourne in terms of beds per student. The Property Council advocates for legislative changes to define PBSA as a distinct rental category, as implemented in South Australia and New South Wales.

Housing Supply and Development

Luxury Market Dominance

Of over 40 new off-the-plan projects listed in May, the average entry-level price was approximately $2 million, with only one project offering units under $1 million. Ben Teague, managing director of Molti, stated that high-end projects are getting built while affordable housing is needed more. Molti's feasibility studies showed some projects would be unprofitable even with free land due to rising construction costs.

Cost Drivers

Construction costs in Brisbane have increased due to supply chain shocks, labor competition from infrastructure projects linked to the 2032 Olympic and Paralympic Games, and other factors. Government fees and charges have also increased. Construction costs in Queensland were reported at record highs.

Land Activation Program

The Queensland government launched the Land Activation Program (LAP) to expedite development of new housing by releasing underutilized government-owned land.

Deputy Premier and Infrastructure Minister Jarrod Bleijie stated that the initiative focuses on accelerating supply and removing existing barriers, with the government committed to "cutting red tape, accelerating approvals, and bringing development-ready land to market."

The first site released under the LAP is over six hectares of vacant land in Banyo, northern Brisbane, with potential to deliver up to 400 new homes. The site, a former Energex depot, is located 13 km from Brisbane's CBD with access to a train station, shops, and other public amenities. Economic Development Queensland (EDQ) will manage the site, partnering with the private sector for development.

The program includes a "use it or house it" policy requiring public departments to release underutilized state land for private development. Since the program's launch in February 2025, more than 21 hectares of land have been released to market, and over 3,000 hectares of potential sites are under assessment.

Banyo Development Details

Three developers will take ownership of the Banyo site to create 450 new homes, comprising:

• 207 townhouses (AR Development Group)
• 180-bed residential aged care facility (Rockpool Holdings)
• 64-unit affordable housing development (Mission Australia Housing)

The site, formerly owned by Energy Queensland, received 157 expressions of interest. Early work is expected within months, with construction beginning early next year.

Government Investment

The Queensland and federal governments announced a $2.4 billion investment in roads and utilities to support new suburbs on the fringes of Greater Brisbane and in far north Queensland. The investment aims to facilitate construction of 51,000 new homes, with at least 20,000 designated for first home buyers in three earmarked development zones.

Policy Responses

State Government Position

The LNP state government prioritizes supply-side policies. Deputy Premier Jarrod Bleijie stated, "The answer to the housing crisis is supply, supply, supply, fast, fast, fast." The government's land activation program does not include a mandate for developments to incorporate social and affordable homes. Bleijie argued that mandates have historically led to fewer homes being built and that partnering with the market is essential for supply.

The government has committed to building one million new homes, including 53,000 social and affordable homes, by 2044. Bleijie stated that the LNP government is building four times as many social and affordable homes as the previous Labor government, with 5,900 contracted or constructed since coming to power.

The government has resumed the sale of social housing properties, with expected proceeds of $119.3 million. Bleijie noted that between 2015 and 2020, an average of 280 social homes were sold annually by the Housing Department under the previous Labor government. Housing Minister Sam O'Connor clarified that proceeds from sales are reinvested into the department's social and community housing capital program.

Opposition Positions

Shadow housing minister Meaghan Scanlon criticized the land activation program, asserting that it prioritizes developers over the housing needs of Queensland residents. Labor oppositions advocate for mandates requiring affordable housing percentages in new developments. Deputy Opposition Leader Cameron Dick criticized the plan as primarily benefiting property developers and argued that without specific targets for affordable homes, Queenslanders would continue to face a housing affordability crisis.

Greens Position

The Greens push for increased government-backed construction of social and affordable housing.

Stakeholder Reactions

Jess Caire, executive director of the Property Council of Australia Queensland, supported the land activation program, stating it represents a significant commitment to increasing supply sooner. She noted that the private sector delivers 96% of homes in Queensland.

Aimee McVeigh, chief executive of the Queensland Council of Social Services (QCOSS), described the lack of social housing mandates as "extremely distressing," given the record-high social housing register. She urged increased supply of social and affordable housing through comprehensive government action.

Paul Dyer suggested policies such as pre-sale finance guarantees (used in South Australia) and height/floor space bonuses (used in New South Wales) could help address housing affordability.

Community Concerns

Local residents in Banyo expressed concerns about parking and infrastructure capacity, with resident Chris Vale and Keith Bitossi stating that public consultation had been insufficient. Bitossi cited concerns about increased traffic on existing narrow streets and impact on local infrastructure, and noted that the proposed medium-density units did not align with the area's predominantly low-density character. Bleijie responded that consultation would take place with local residents, and developers' applications would address roads, traffic, transport, sewerage, flooding, and stormwater.

Contributing Factors

Multiple reports identify population growth in south-east Queensland as a factor sustaining housing demand. Substantial rent increases over the past five years have contributed to an increase in group and multi-generational households.

The 2032 Olympic and Paralympic Games are anticipated to further impact Brisbane's housing situation. Government investment in South-East Queensland is expected to generate jobs, potentially attracting more residents and increasing housing demand. Major infrastructure projects could also divert construction workers from residential building.

Recent federal property tax reforms, including changes to negative gearing and the capital gains tax discount, were cited as contributing to market uncertainty.