Victoria's Shifting School Landscape: Growth in Non-Government Sector, Public Funding Debate, and Demographic Pressures

Victorian schools are navigating a multifaceted period of enrollment changes, characterized by notable growth in the non-government sector, substantial parental financial contributions to public schools, and significant demographic shifts influencing student numbers in various regions. While private and Catholic schools are reporting increasing enrollments, including an emerging trend towards earlier primary year admissions, government schools, despite some growth in outer suburbs, face challenges in inner-eastern areas and are central to ongoing debates regarding state funding levels and parental financial support.

Overall Enrollment Trends

Data from sources such as the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) and the Australian Curriculum Assessment and Reporting Authority (ACARA) reveal a general upward trend in non-government school enrollments across Victoria.

• Private schools: Recorded a 3.5% increase, reaching nearly 179,000 students last year.
• Catholic schools: Saw an increase of 1.1%, totaling 218,000 students.
• Government schools: Experienced a 0.5% year-on-year increase, bringing their total to over 665,000 students.

Nationally, the proportion of students in non-government education has seen a slight rise. In Victoria, secondary students in non-government high schools now comprise approximately 43% of all enrollments, an increase of less than one percentage point since 2020. Independent schools are reportedly nearing parity with Catholic education providers as the second most popular choice for secondary schooling in Victoria, while Catholic schools maintain their position as a more popular option within non-government education at the primary level.

Private School Enrollment Shifts

Victorian private schools are observing a notable evolution in enrollment patterns, with an increasing number of students commencing their independent education in primary years rather than adhering exclusively to the traditional Year 7 secondary school entry point. This trend is particularly evident in a rise in independent school enrollments in Years 5 and 6, preceding the increase typically seen in Year 7.

• Last year, 28,000 Year 6 students attended private schools, compared to 55,000 in government schools.
• In Year 7, private school enrollments increased to 38,000, while government school enrollments stood at 46,000.

Factors Driving Earlier Entry

Several reasons have been cited for this shift:

• Early Entry: Schools like Brighton Grammar have added Year 5 classes due to demand for extracurricular activities, as parents seek to secure places before Year 7. Families are reportedly enrolling children as early as Year 3 or Year 5.
• COVID-19 Impact: Firbank Grammar's principal suggested that the perceived ability of independent schools to adapt more swiftly to remote learning during the pandemic contributed to the rise in earlier enrollments.
• Program Offerings: Haileybury College identifies Year 5 as its second-largest intake year, attributing this growth to its parallel education model, which separates girls and boys for teaching from Year 5.
• Transition: Schools such as St Kevin's College and Caulfield Grammar note that families are enrolling children earlier to facilitate a smoother transition into secondary school.

Fee Structures and Growth Areas

Fees for earlier entry are substantial; for example, Year 5 fees at Brighton Grammar are $39,250, Year 6 fees $40,150, and Year 7 fees $42,768. Mentone Grammar's Year 7 fees are $36,433, representing a 9.5% rise since 2024.

Record Year 7 enrollments have been reported at many private and Catholic high schools, with analysis indicating that approximately two-thirds of Victoria's 222 private and Catholic high schools have seen growth in Year 7 intakes over the past five years.

While high-fee private schools like Caulfield Grammar and Haileybury (which saw fee increases exceeding 4% this year) have increased their Year 7 intake, low- and mid-fee schools have experienced the strongest enrollment growth. St Francis Catholic College in Melton, for instance, recorded the largest growth in Year 7 enrollments since 2020 and plans to enroll an additional 1000 students by the end of the decade, with Year 7 fees currently at $5269. This growth is particularly pronounced in Melbourne's developing areas, including Wyndham, Hume, Melton, Casey, and Whittlesea, where independent school student numbers increased by over 3100 in just 12 months.

There has also been a rise in special assistance schools, catering to students with complex needs, with one such school experiencing a 150% increase in student numbers over five years.

Public School Funding and Parental Contributions

Parents of public school students in Victoria contributed the highest amount nationally in voluntary fees, charges, and contributions, totaling $410.3 million in 2024. On average, Victorian parents paid $620 per student, ranking as the second-highest amount after South Australia ($686).

• Specific schools reported significantly higher contributions: Melbourne High School received over $2800 per student, totaling over $4 million, and Albert Park College averaged $2726 per student, totaling over $4.46 million.
• This data from ACARA includes voluntary fees for curriculum-related services and income from optional extracurricular activities.

This increase in parent contributions coincides with a decline in Victoria's inflation-adjusted government recurrent spending per student. In 2024, the state spent $14,314 per student, which, while an increase from 2023, remained the lowest in Australia. Similarly, the state government's spending on teachers and staff for 2023-24 was $14,533 per student, also the lowest nationally and below the national average of $16,376.

Stakeholder Perspectives

• Andrew Dalgleish, Victorian Principals Association president, noted that rising CPI has increased costs for schools and parents, clarifying that voluntary payments primarily support extracurricular activities like camps and excursions. He affirmed that measures are in place to ensure no child is excluded due to inability to pay.
• Gail McHardy, Parents Victoria chief executive, asserted that Victorian government schools are "systematically underfunded" and that parents feel compelled to pay for essential programs despite contributions being technically voluntary.
• Opposition education spokesperson Brad Rowsell and Victorian Greens leader Ellen Sandell emphasized that families are facing increased costs during a cost-of-living crisis and that the burden of public education is being shifted onto parents.
• Economist Trevor Cobbold described the situation as an "absurd contradiction," arguing that public education in Victoria is "far from free" and highlighting a "great divide in resources" between government and independent schools.

A Victorian government spokesperson countered that real recurrent funding per student for public schools has increased by 34 percent since 2014-15, more than any other state or territory. The spokesperson cited Victoria's lead in NAPLAN, high Year 12 completion rates (over 97 percent), and an $18.5 billion investment in school infrastructure over the past decade, which is not included in the reported recurrent funding data. The government also highlighted programs aimed at easing cost-of-living burdens for families.

Despite some declining Year 7 enrollments in specific government schools (180 out of 312 recorded fewer Year 7 enrollments in 2025 compared to 2020), the total number of Year 7 students in government schools in 2025 was higher than in 2020, partly due to increases in growth areas. Specific government schools in the western metropolitan area that saw significant increases include Western Heights Secondary College in Geelong (up 135 Year 7 students), Staughton College in Melton (up 114 Year 7 students), and Alamanda K–9 College in Point Cook (up 128 students). A Victorian government spokesperson stated that parents are increasingly selecting government schools, citing new school constructions and upgrades across the state. Mount Alexander College in Flemington, a government school, has also experienced increased demand, becoming a preferred choice for local parents.

Demographic Impacts and Inner-Eastern Suburb Declines

Some schools in Melbourne's affluent inner-eastern suburbs are experiencing declining student numbers, largely driven by a reduction in children and young families residing in these areas. While private schools have mostly maintained or increased enrollments by expanding their reach, local Catholic and government schools have been significantly impacted.

• In the Boroondara council area (encompassing Hawthorn, Kew, Camberwell, and Balwyn), the population aged 19 and younger dropped by 7.5% (3220 people) between 2015 and 2024.
• During the same period, Catholic and government schools in Boroondara collectively saw a reduction of 3277 students. For instance, Camberwell High School's student count decreased by 35% over a decade (from 1276 to 824), and Kew High School's student numbers fell by nearly 10% since 2016 (from 1118 to 1015).
• In contrast, Boroondara's 18 private schools collectively added nearly 2130 enrollments since 2016.

A similar trend was observed in Stonnington, where the under-19 population declined by 9.6% (nearly 1800 people). This situation contrasts with Melbourne's outer suburbs, where school enrollments have increased due to families seeking more affordable housing.

Contributing Factors

Factors identified for these demographic shifts include:

• Declining fertility rates: From an average of 1.36 children per woman in Boroondara in 2013-2015 to 1.07 in 2022-2024.
• Socio-economic factors: Casualization of work, cost of living pressures (including housing), challenges with partnering, and decisions regarding having children or delayed fertility.
• Neighborhood life cycles: A "mini-boom of births" in the early 2000s is now "ageing through the system."

High-fee private schools are actively adapting to these demographic shifts by broadening their student catchment areas. For example, Xavier College and Methodist Ladies' College report students increasingly coming from broader areas across middle-ring eastern and north-eastern Melbourne suburbs, with Xavier College's bus network being oversubscribed. Mentone Grammar, which has grown significantly, is preparing for a predicted decline in young people in its local area and considering whether to plan for a smaller student population or expand its catchment using transport.

Expert Perspectives

Associate Professor Paul Kidson of Australian Catholic University noted that parents generally seek what they perceive to be the best for their children and that education remains a priority despite cost-of-living challenges.

He also pointed to the growth of faith-based schools, particularly in Melbourne's south-east, as contributing to the rise in independent school enrollments, and stated that this data does not necessarily indicate a lack of confidence in government schools. Australia Institute researcher Skye Predavec highlighted that Australia has the second most privatized high school system in the OECD, after Chile, suggesting that cost does not deter people and private education is sometimes viewed as a "status symbol." Economist Trevor Cobbold suggested urban renewal with a greater mix of housing as a solution to demographic imbalances.