Pakistan and Afghanistan: A Deepening Cross-Border Conflict

Pakistan and Afghanistan have engaged in a series of cross-border military actions, marking a significant escalation in tensions. The events began with Pakistani airstrikes in Afghanistan in late February, which Pakistan stated targeted militant hideouts following a surge in attacks on its soil. Afghanistan condemned these strikes, reporting civilian casualties. The conflict intensified with a subsequent Afghan cross-border attack, prompting further Pakistani airstrikes into multiple Afghan provinces and a declaration from Pakistan of an "open war." Both nations accuse the other of harboring militant groups and report conflicting casualty figures, while international bodies urge de-escalation and diplomatic resolution.

Initial Pakistani Airstrikes and Justification

On a Sunday in late February, Pakistan launched airstrikes into Afghanistan's Nangarhar and Paktika provinces. Pakistani authorities stated these operations targeted "camps and hideouts" of the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and its affiliates, as well as an Islamic State group affiliate. Pakistan reported killing approximately 70 to 80 militants.

These strikes followed a series of attacks within Pakistan:

• February 6: A suicide bombing at a Shia mosque in Islamabad resulted in the deaths of 31 to 36 worshippers and wounded 170.
• Days later: An explosives-laden vehicle attacked a security post in Bajaur, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, killing 11 soldiers and one child. Pakistani authorities identified the attacker as an Afghan national.
• Hours before the airstrikes: A suicide bomber attacked a security convoy in Bannu, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, killing two soldiers, including a lieutenant colonel.

Pakistan's Ministry of Information and Broadcasting asserted it had "conclusive evidence" that recent attacks on its soil were carried out by fighters and suicide bombers acting on directives from Afghanistan-based leadership. Islamabad had previously urged Kabul to take verifiable steps to prevent armed groups from using Afghan soil, stating that no substantial action had been taken.

Afghan Response to Initial Strikes

Afghanistan condemned Pakistan's airstrikes as a violation of its airspace and sovereignty. The Afghan Ministry of Defence reported the strikes hit a religious school and residential homes, causing fatalities and injuries, including women and children. Afghan sources indicated at least 17 to 18 people were killed in Nangarhar alone. Local villagers claimed those killed were not militants but "poor people." The UN mission in Afghanistan later reported 13 Afghan civilians were killed in these February strikes.

In response, Afghanistan's Ministry of Foreign Affairs summoned Pakistan's ambassador to Kabul to protest the strikes and pledged a "measured and appropriate response."

Afghanistan denied claims of harboring anti-Pakistan militant groups.

Escalation of Cross-Border Conflict

The situation escalated significantly in late February/early March. On a Thursday, Afghanistan launched what it described as "large-scale offensive operations" or a "cross-border attack" against Pakistani military positions. Afghan authorities stated these actions were in retaliation for the earlier Pakistani airstrikes. Afghanistan claimed to have captured "over a dozen" or "multiple" Pakistani army posts, reporting 55 Pakistani soldiers killed and 8 Afghan soldiers killed with 11 wounded.

In response, early the following Friday, Pakistan conducted airstrikes in Afghanistan's capital, Kabul, and in Kandahar and Paktia provinces. Three explosions were reported in Kabul.

Pakistan's Defence Minister, Khawaja Mohammad Asif, declared that Pakistan's "patience has run out" and that an "open war" now existed with Afghanistan.

Pakistan's Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif stated his country's armed forces were capable of "crushing" aggressors. Pakistan claimed its military operations targeted "Afghan Taliban defence targets," including alleged "core headquarters of Afghan Taliban forces," ammunition depots, logistic bases, and refuges. Pakistan reported killing at least 274 Taliban fighters and wounding over 400 in "Operation Ghazab lil-Haq," with 12 Pakistani soldiers killed and 27 wounded. Pakistan's Ministry of Information also reported operations against Afghan Taliban forces in several districts within Pakistan's Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province. Pakistan denied claims of captured soldiers.

Afghan government spokesperson Zabihullah Mujahid confirmed the Pakistani air strikes but initially reported no casualties in Kabul. Later, Afghan officials reported 7 refugees wounded at a camp near the Torkham border crossing after a mortar shell reportedly hit the camp. The Afghan Defence Ministry reported 8 of its soldiers were killed in the land offensive on Thursday. Later reports from Afghan officials claimed that Pakistani strikes resulted in the deaths of 55 civilians across multiple provinces since the escalation on Thursday, including a woman and a child in Nangarhar from a drone strike, and another civilian in Paktia from mortar fire. Afghanistan also claimed to have shot down two Pakistani drones and killed dozens of Pakistani soldiers, launching counterattacks from Nangarhar, Paktia, Khost, and Kandahar provinces.

Independent verification of the casualty figures and claims made by both sides has not been possible.

Ongoing Clashes and Further Allegations

Fighting continued into the following Sunday. Afghanistan reported thwarting attempted airstrikes on Bagram Air Base, a former U.S. military installation north of Kabul. Afghan forces stated they used "anti-aircraft and missile defense systems" to repel Pakistani military jets that entered Afghan airspace. Pakistan has not issued an immediate response to these claims.

Anonymous Pakistani security officials claimed Pakistani ground forces retained control of a key Afghan post and a 32-square-kilometer area in the southern Zhob sector near Kandahar province, reportedly seized during fighting on Friday. Afghan Deputy Government Spokesperson Hamdullah Fitrat dismissed these reports as "baseless."

Exchanges of fire were also reported in the Torkham border area, leading to the evacuation and relocation of refugees on both sides of the frontier. Pakistan's Information Minister stated that anti-drone systems had shot down several small drones over northwestern cities, attributing the attempted attack to the Pakistani Taliban and linking it to the Afghan Taliban regime.

Context of Bilateral Relations and Militancy

Relations between Pakistan and Afghanistan have been strained since the Taliban's return to power in Afghanistan in 2021. Pakistan accuses the Afghan Taliban of providing sanctuary to the TTP on Afghan soil, a charge Kabul denies. The TTP, which emerged in 2007, maintains ideological, social, and linguistic ties with the Afghan Taliban but is a distinct group. Pakistan also claims Afghanistan has formed alliances with India, a rival nation, and accused the Taliban government of "exporting terrorism." Afghanistan, in turn, has accused Pakistan of harboring fighters linked to Islamic State, which Pakistan denies.

The two countries share a 1,600-mile long frontier known as the Durand Line, established in 1893. This line is internationally recognized as Pakistan’s western border, but Afghanistan does not accept it as a legitimate boundary. Both nations accuse each other of failing to address militant activity along this border.

Previous mediation efforts by Qatar and Turkiye in October 2023 resulted in a fragile ceasefire. However, subsequent talks in Istanbul failed to produce a formal peace agreement, leaving relations tense.

Humanitarian and International Response

Pakistan has historically hosted approximately 5 million Afghan refugees. In October 2023, Pakistan initiated a program to expel undocumented migrants, which resulted in millions of people, including those born in Pakistan, returning to Afghanistan. The U.N. refugee agency reported 2.9 million returns last year and nearly 80,000 so far this year.

Several international bodies and nations have expressed deep concern over the escalating conflict and called for de-escalation and diplomatic resolution:

• United Nations: Secretary-General António Guterres urged both nations to protect civilians, as required by international law, and to "continue to seek to resolve any differences through diplomacy." The UN human rights chief Volker Turk also urged for "urgent political dialogue."
• Russia: Moscow urged both Afghanistan and Pakistan to cease cross-border strikes and return to dialogue, offering to mediate if requested.
• China: Expressed deep concern, urged dialogue, and offered to mediate.
• Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Turkey, Iran, UK, EU, UAE, Jordan, and former US Envoy Zalmay Khalilzad also called for calm, restraint, and negotiations, emphasizing civilian protection and diplomatic solutions.
• Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan engaged in separate phone calls with his Pakistani, Afghan, Qatari, and Saudi counterparts to discuss the situation.

Analysts suggest that despite the intensified rhetoric, neither side possesses the capacity for a decisive military victory and may eventually be compelled to return to negotiations.

However, deep mistrust persists, and the potential for a widening conflict risks exacerbating civilian suffering in Afghanistan.